Daily Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Values for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 2 - 9/18/16

We covered our main cash game plays in our Week 2 Picks where we covered Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Larry Fitzgerald and Kelvin Benjamin. For this piece we will touch on some other cash game value and GPP targets.

In case you didn’t notice, we just released our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.

You can grab a free trial to test out yourself.

WIDE RECEIVER VALUES

Jordan Matthews FD 6900 DK 6900
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 14.62 DK - 17.95
When we're looking at situations with new quarterbacks and schemes, one game sample sizes matter a lot more than usual. In the case of the Eagles and Carson Wentz, all indicators point to Matthews as the guy who will benefit the most this season. Matthews' 14 targets were the second most in the NFL, and while he only converted 7 of those into receptions, that's a perfectly acceptable rate on all of those looks. Target totals like that generally indicate one (or more) of two things: a true #1 receiver, or an uncomfortable young quarterback who's not making it all the way through his reads. In this instance it's almost certainly #2, but that's totally fine for our Matthews stock here. While Chicago was about league average against the pass last year, they ranked 27 overall against WR1s. He's still priced like a guy in an uncertain situation, and he's just a phenomenal value on FanDuel in particular.

Doug Baldwin FD 7000 DK 6600
Opponent LA
Proj Points FD - 17.19 DK - 20.62
We were among the most bullish on Doug Baldwin heading into week 1, feeling the hate had gone way too far on a guy who was admittedly pretty luck in terms of touchdowns in 2015. Well week 1 played out in much the same way that 2015 ended - Baldwin receiving double-digit targets while scoring his team's only touchdown. The case for Baldwin actually looks even better after week 1. His 11 targets would have been his second highest in 2015, and his 9 receptions would have been a season high. And, of course, the red zone targets appear to be elite (especially without a true RB1 in Seattle, and Russell Wilson's injury concerns). Watching the Blaine Gabbert/Jeremy Kerley connection happen against the Rams last week leaves me understandably bullish on Baldwin, who is likely 10% cheaper than he'll be 4 weeks from now.

Marvin Jones FD 6500 DK 5500
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 16.5 DK - 19.96
Talk about a player with mixed signals from week 1. Many saw Jones as the obvious value play at the WR position, and he was essentially fine while also being something of a disappointment. On one hand, many of Jones' most bullish supporters wouldn't have penciled him in for 10 targets. If he had been at that level in our projections, he'd have been close to an every lineup guy on both sites. He out targeted Golden Tate, which was a huge surprise to us at least. But then he turned those 10 targets into just 4 receptions - a troubling low conversion rate for a new QB/WR pair. But then he got 85 yards on those 4 receptions! And that seems good! I'm giving myself a headache. The big issue here is that it's unclear how the Lions felt about Jones' week 1 performance. If they liked what they saw, Jones could be in for a regression to the mean where he hauls in 6-7 balls for 100+ yards (and maybe a score). If they didn't like the low completion % on balls thrown his way. Us? We're in the bullish camp for now, but it doesn't feel super safe.

William Fuller FD 6200 DK 4200
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 11.82 DK - 13.97
Pure punt, or next big thing? It's sort of tough to say, here. It was shocking to see Fuller top Hopkins in receptions, targets, and yards. Shocking. But you know, stranger things have happened than WRs who are taken in the first round blowing up. And while Hopkins was one of the most targeted receivers in all of football last season, he's got a couple of factors working against him. First of all, Hopkins was relatively inefficient at converting targets to receptions - his 57% conversion rate was solidly below the top 40 receiver average of 63.5%. Second of all, the Texans have a brand new QB. We've seen many instances over the years where new QBs find greater comfort with guys they're learning the playbook with than the established guy. Fuller is dirt cheap on DraftKings, and reasonably priced on FanDuel. Don't be surprised if he picks up where pre-injury Keenan Allen left off last week, gobbling up short passes for big chunks of yard early and often.

Tajae Sharpe FD 6000 DK 4100
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 13.79 DK - 16.7
There was speculation going into Week 1 that Sharpe would see a decent amount of targets in the Tennessee offense even as an untested rookie. The Titans are/were thin in the WR corps and basically needed someone to throw to. Well throw they did as Mariota aired it out 41 times leading a second half comeback for the Titans. Sharpe saw 11 of those targets going for a 7/76 line. His price ticked up some across the board but he's still a value on DraftKings in the full PPR scoring. Detroit allowed 385 yards passing to the Colts last week and though the Titan offense isn't really in the same area as Indy, Detroit doesn't have much in the way of pass defense. Some will Sharpe's salary climb as a stayaway but I still think he's a safe option with upside.
Again, you can grab a free trial of our NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users crush it this daily fantasy NFL season.

You can grab a free 2 WEEK trial to test out yourself.