Daily Fantasy Football Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 1 9/11/16

News in the NFL, like any DFS sport is dynamic and with new information comes updates to our system and even our picks. We posted out Week 1 Cash game plays, but wanted to throw out a quick updates article on where we've been tweaking some things.

In case you didn’t notice, we just released our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.

You can grab a free trial to test out yourself.

UPDATES

Spencer Ware FD 5400 DK 4400
Opponent SD
Proj Points FD - 13.03 DK - 13.69
So we were feeling fantastic about Ware's chances for week 1, but recent news out of KC's camp has us singing a different tune. A fair bit of cold water has been thrown on Spencer Ware's stock thanks to uncertain reports about how the time will be split. While we're not worried about Jamaal Charles suiting up, there are now real question marks about both Ware's overall workload and his touches in the red zone in particular. While the price is still very attractive, Ware is a lot closer to an "interesting big tournament play" than an "every lineup guy" as of this writing. We might get some more clarity here as the weekend approaches, but for Thursday's slate, this might be a stayaway on sites where you can't do a late substitution.

Antonio Brown FD 9300 DK 9800
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 19.41 DK - 23.47
So we still like Antonio Brown for week 1, but we feel like there's a need for a more in-depth breakdown of his match-up this week.

It's no secret that Josh Norman has moved from Carolina to Washington, but the bigger question surrounds just how his move will impact Washington's defense against the WR1 position. Norman had a few high profile shut-downs last season, and is generally regarded as one of the top few shutdown corners in the league. That said, the track record of shut-down corners switching team is somewhat mixed. While the Redskins are likely to deploy the physical CB much in the same way Carolina did, there are extenuating circumstances that make Norman's life a bit more difficult. Washington had the third fewest sacks last season, for instance, and their lack of a pass rush gives smaller (but faster) receivers like Brown more time to get separation.

That said, Brown was still heavily targeted in bad match-ups last season, and even turned in a positively transcendent 16 receptions on 18 targets against 4th ranked Denver last season.

We're public about the fact that we generate our corner-back rankings (and team rankings vs. WRs of various positions) based on a combination of statistics and subjectivity, and a recent upward tweak in Washington's projection vs. WR1s has bumped Brown from optimal lineups on DraftKings for the time being.

All told, we still think Brown is playable on FanDuel, but he's no longer showing up on DraftKings as part of cash game lineups.

Marvin Jones FD 5500 DK 4600
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 12.44 DK - 15.05
Golden Tate was limited in practice on Wednesday, and while no one is especially concerned (siting this as "veteran treatment"), even the extremely modest shift in targets that our system applies in situations like this was enough to slide Jones into the top line-up on DraftKings. He's simply a great bargain for his price, and any questions around Tate at all are enough to make him a high floor play. Given how many people are likely to play him on Sunday, you're not exposing yourself to much additional risk by playing him here.

Doug Baldwin FD 6700 DK 6600
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 15.64 DK - 18.75
At DFSR, we're officially of a mind that the hate has gone too far on Doug Baldwin. Yes, the man ran hot in terms of touch downs last season. But Baldwin's WR profile is so different than typical WR1's that it makes him awfully tough for many people to wrap their minds around.

First things first - Baldwin is NOT a WR1 in the same mold as Antonio Brown or Julio Jones. He won't score 25 TDs this season. We get it. These parts are obvious. And, yes, critics will rightfully point out that he was only 38th in total targets last season - below guys like Donte Moncrief and Ben Watson.

So why the love from DFSR this week? As always, we need to start with the price. At $6,700 on FanDuel, he's doesn't need to be Antonio Brown to have a great week. But this is more than just a price play. Last season, Baldwin converted 75% of his targets into reception as compared to the top 40 average of 63%. He was also targeted a notoriously high amount in the red zone - hence the touch downs.

Baldwin runs much shorter routes than typical WR1s, and his yards per catch reflect more a slot guy than a downfield threat. This benefits him by increasing his consistency, and making him much more usable in the redzone than a guy looking to just run past the secondary and catch a long ball.

So, yes, Baldwin was lucky last year. But the hate has gone too far - he's still a very solid cash game option for week 1.

Football's here, baby!

Again, you can grab a free trial of our NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users crush it this daily fantasy NFL season.

You can grab a free 2 WEEK trial to test out yourself.