Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 1 9/11/16

Week 1 baby! It's finally here and we've got you covered with our first set of plays for the season.

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QUARTERBACKS

Russell Wilson FD 8500 DK 7900
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 26.12 DK - 26.96
In terms of safety, I think Russell Wilson offers about as high an implied floor as anyone on the slate. With some other quarterbacks coming into good matchups, I don't think Wilson hits as many radars as he should. But this is a great spot. Miami's coming off a season that saw them rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and while they upgraded some in the offseason they still don't look like an above average unit. Wilson's coming off a season that saw him take a nice jump in terms of consistency with the pass (68% completion rate - 3rd in the league) while also rushing for the third most of any quarterback. The Seahawks are heavy favorites coming in (-10.5, the highest of Week One) which could lend to a possible blowout. But I see Wilson hitting his floor for cash games in this one.

Dak Prescott FD 5000 DK 5000
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 18.23 DK - 19.47
He'll likely be about the chalkiest quarterbacks going in Week One for a lot of different reasons, most of them correct. Because FanDuel and DraftKings released prices and contests so early, salaries were locked into place well before the preseason had completed. So when Tony Romo goes down we were able to A: have Prescott still priced as a backup and B: see that he might be a moderately competent rookie quarterback. The latter part is still a wait-and-see, and the hype train could be a little out ahead of reality. But Dak has that uncertainty built into his price. Preseason doesn't tell close to the whole story on a player, but Dak was impressive. He complete 39-50 passes (78%!) for 454 yards while also getting out and rushing for 53 yards on 7 attempts. These numbers point to a guy who could be manageable in his first ever regular season pro game. The Cowboys are still set for an implied total of 23 and Dak should have plenty of opportunity to pay this price. Again, he's likely the highest owned player this week.

Aaron Rodgers FD 9000 DK 8500
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 25.74 DK - 26.45
Week One is sometimes the most difficult to get a handle on as we are playing, in some parts, a guessing game on player's volume, opportunity and overall scheme. Not with the Packers. Rodgers is a known commodity at this point and there's a lot of safety in that knowledge. But he's coming off his worst season as a starter posting career lows in Completion % and Total yards. He was playing the whole year without his WR1 in Jordy Nelson (back and said to be looking good) and a running game that had an overweight runner in Lacy (said to be trimmer and looking good). To me, this is bounce back time for Rodgers who opens the season against a Jaguar team ranked 31st in DVOA vs. the pass last season. Green Bay has one of the higher implied team totals on the day and the offense is all Rodgers to handle.

Derek Carr FD 7700 DK 7300
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 21.79 DK - 22.91
Derek Carr moved so much in the right direction last season. He saw his completion % increase by three percent and he threw for 700 more yards on 26 less total attempts. It's such a great sign to see this kind of progression and he'll open up the season in about as optimal a passing situation as a QB can get. The Saints ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass last season, and though they made some improvements in the secondary, they won't see a big jump. This game has the highest o/u (51.5) of the week with the Raiders only a -1 going in. Plenty of points could go up in what has the signs of turning into a track meet.

RUNNING BACKS

Lamar Miller FD 7600 DK 7000
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 16.6 DK - 17.9
Change of scenery guys can be the toughest to figure out going into the season. We need to read the situation correctly and understand how a player fits into the new team dynamic. All relevant info points to Miller moving to a fantastic situation in Houston. The Texans have been content to run their RB1's Bellcow-style as long as they're on the field. And that's what Miller's been brought in to do. Over the last two seasons, Miller averaged 4.8 yards per carry in Miami along with about 3.5 targets per game out of the backfield. His only real issues were the Dolphins stunk and never got him the ball enough. That shouldn't be the issue here at all and he comes in with much preseason hype. The price is a value and I think you see him as one of the higher owned mid-tier backs on the slate.

Deangelo Williams FD 7100 DK 7000
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 16.43 DK - 17.98
LeVeon Bell will miss the first four weeks of the season, opening the door for another round of Deangelo Williams bargain love. This was a theme for him last season after Bell was hurt. The price isn't punt play, but we have a good sense of how the Steelers like to use Williams when Bell isn't in the picture. He averaged 15 carries a game as a starter last season and will see targets as well. The Steelers come in as the third highest implied total on the week though the matchup against the Redskins isn't completely ideal. The Redskins do play at a slower pace which could limit the Steelers' overall volume though Washington was below average against the run last season. It's Williams' low $7K salary that gets the job done on one of the better offenses in the league.

Spencer Ware FD 5400 DK 4400
Opponent SD
Proj Points FD - 14.41 DK - 15.48
It looks like Jamaal Charles will sit out the first week (at least) and that could mean a big old dose of Spencer Ware. In the last game of 2015 and the first in the playoffs, Ware saw 16 carries each, averaging 70 yards and a TD. That kind of production more than gets it done at these punt prices and he's another guy we could end up seeing as a chalkier play. The Chargers ranked 31st in the league against the run last season and didn't do much in the offseason to upgrade there. If the Chiefs are committed to making Ware the feature back in Week one then he could be the very best pts/$ value on the weekend.

Latavius Murray FD 6600 DK 5600
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 14.36 DK - 16.06
There weren't too many 1,000 yard rushers in the NFL last season, but Murray was one of them. Most of that was he stayed healthy, but the Raiders did give him about 16 carries per game. If you think the Raiders took a step up this season and will continue featuring Murray as their steady back and goal line guy then he's a great bargain here. Again, the Saints were a bad defense last season, played at a moderate pace and this game has all the markings of a scoring-fest.

A situation to keep an eye on: The RB situation in Seattle has become very interesting. The Seahawks have come out and said that they're going to be cautious with Thomas Rawls during week 1, which means Christine Michael is likely to get the starting nod. Is he a safe guy to cram into every lineup? Not as of Tuesday. But any indication that Rawls would be out, or even very limited, would likely vault him into "must play" status. As of now, he's a very attractive and high upside big tournament play.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Brown FD 9300 DK 9800
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 21.75 DK - 26.31
Okay, this isn't some kind of hot take or expert analysis. This is Antonio Brown and he's coming off a season as the number one overall fantasy option. How good was he? Well, for starters he had the top two best fantasy games all season and four of the top twenty. That means 25% of the games Brown played he was the best fantasy player in the NFL. That. Is. Nuts. Little deeper? He had 6 of the top 30 total games. He second in targets, first in receptions, second in receiving yards and, oof, you get the point. There's no possible reason to fade him in cash games this week considering the amount of value you're getting elsewhere and I suspect he's the highest owned player on the week.

Julio Jones FD 9000 DK 9400
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 20.08 DK - 24.23
Speaking of wide receivers who see heavy volume, there was a reason Antonio Brown wasn't the top overall targets and yards guy last year. That reason was Julio Jones. Jones was a stud plain and simple seeing consistent volume from Matty Ice (lulz) and should continue to see the same role in the offense this season. Look, like Antonio Brown, I'm not really telling you anything new here. There's a reason these guys are 2 of the top 4 picks in just about every fantasy draft. The Bucs were about league average against WR1's last season and well below average against the pass overall. Jones should continue to see his kind of production and exists in that category of "safe" wide outs.

Willie Snead FD 6400 DK 4800
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 12.6 DK - 15.09
Didn't want to just give all of the obvious guys and call it a day. We need to sprinkle in some value here as well. Snead is an interesting case this year. On the surface it looks like he's coming off just a ho-hum-ish season with 69/984/3, but those numbers look a helluva lot better when you realize he only started 8 games. In those 8 starts he averaged 8 looks per game and 72 receiving yards. That kind of implied volume in this Saints' offense and he is a fantastic deal on DraftKings. It's a little closer on FanDuel, but I love him in the DK full PPR scoring.

Tajae Sharpe FD 4800 DK 3000
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 9.36 DK - 11.3
He's getting a bunch of preseason pub and it makes sense. Mariota did look his way and this receiving corps is thin (like real thin). That's not always a good thing. For starters, the Titans don't pass a ton to begin with and Mariota has the ability to keep them in games without necessarily airing it out. But it's Sharpe's $3K price tag on DraftKings that makes it interesting. If he's locked into the WR2 (or even WR1) role then this is an absolute steal. Just taking the full compliment of snaps with 6-7 targets and you are looking at value.

A note on Marvin Jones. He's another guy who's gotten a ton of pub in the preseason because he saw steady targets from Matthew Stafford. I get it and I do agree he's a value play. But I can see plenty of reasons to fade him as well. Namely, we've seen the Lions sans-Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate was a double digit target guy. It's not that I don't like Jones. It's just that with another option there it's hard to see him becoming an elite WR1 like some people seem to think.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Gary Barnidge FD 6300 DK 4700
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 12.8 DK - 15.67
Admittedly, these projections may be a little bullish on Barnidge, but it's hard to deny what dude did last season. He was the second overall tight end in targets (we'll get to number one in just one sec) and was of particular interest to the Browns when they were in the Red Zone. Barnidge was second (second!) overall (WRs included) in Red Zone targets last season and third when the team was inside the ten yard line. If the key to NFL DFS is scoring TDs, then you need to perk up here. Of course, there's a new QB in two with RGIII but it stands to reason much of the Browns overall scheme is the same. And it's not like they have a dynamite WR1 to go to. I love Barnidge this week and think he's a value on all sites.

Delanie Walker FD 6500 DK 4500
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 10.25 DK - 12.68
Remember a second ago when I was talking about tight ends who lead the position in targets? That was Delanie Walker. In fact, Walker ranked 15th in the NFL in looks last season and was tied for 13th overall with 9 targets inside the 10 yard line. As with Tajae Sharpe, it isn't like Mariota has a million prolific options in the passing game and Walker should continue seeing those safety valve looks. I like Barnidge quite a bit more, but am willing to get away from the TE position on the cheap side with implied volume. Both of these guys have it.

DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS

Seattle Seahawks vs. the Miami Dolphins
Welcome to chalksville on FanDuel for week 1. The Seahawks are at home, and are projected to give up the fewest points (roughly 15.5) of any team in the NFL this week. They're not going to be off anyone's radar for cash games, to be sure. The interesting analysis comes, for me, when we start to dig into their upside. Daily fantasy is similar to season long fantasy in that upside tends to come primarily from generating turnovers, getting sacks, and scoring defensive touchdowns. Unfortunately, Seattle doesn't necessarily excel in any of these facets of the game - ranking as almost exactly league average in terms of sacks and interceptions in 2015. While they were a top 10 team in forced fumbles, Seattle does't profile as a traditional huge upside defense. Then you have the Dolphins, whose relatively conservative game plan saw Ryan Tannehill throw just 12 interceptions in 2015, and you have a defensive unit with a relatively high floor but little in the way of points per dollar upside.

The Cincinnati Bengals vs. the New York Jets
If you want to blend a little safety and a little more upside, take a long look at the Bengals for week 1. They were 8th in the NFL in terms of sacks for week 1, and 3rd in terms of interceptions. While Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of the toughest QBs to sack in the NFL last season, he was top 10 in terms of interceptions thrown - increasing the likelihood for both turnovers and defensive touchdowns. Vegas has the Jets as a bottom 5 team in terms of implied points scored for week 1, and with Brandon Marshall nursing a sore hip, this looks like a very solid way to round out your lineups. The Bengals are priced to move on both FD and DraftKings.

The Minnesota Vikings vs. the Tennessee Titans
And now we have our big upside play. I picture you in your seat, admiring the beautiful spectrum of defenses that ranges from "most safe, least upside" to "least safe, most upside." I'm just happy to share the beauty with you. So what's to love about this match-up? For one, it's got the lowest overall total of the week, and the Titans are somehow underdogs in spite of facing some combination of Shaun Hill and Sam Bradford. The reason, primarily, is the uncertain nature of their offense. While Mariota showed a lot of promise for a rookie, the combination of his ability to run, immature pocket presence, and poor offensive line had the Titans allowing the most sacks in the NFL last season. Mariota also yielded the 8th most interceptions. The Titans are also going to be leaning primarily on an unproven receiving corp - while we like Tajae Sharpe, 2nd year QBs and 1st year WRs tend to make as many mistakes as they do transcendent plays. Keep an eye on this one if you want to run something somewhat against the grain in a big tournament.

KICKERS

Seriously? We're not going to great lengths to write up specific kickers each week. We suggest you take kickers in decent weather (and particularly domes) from games with high Vegas totals. Generally, you're not going to want to spend much on kicker since there's frequently a good spot to grab on the cheap. By and large we suggest you simply see how much money you have left over after using players you really like, and find the best play from there. You can also just use our lineup optimizer, of course.

Football's here, baby!

Again, you can grab a free trial of our NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users crush it this daily fantasy NFL season.

You can grab a free 2 WEEK trial to test out yourself.