Welcome to our daily article breaking down some of the other stacking targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and pitching breakdown but here we will look at other plays to consider if you're trying to win big in a large tournament.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Joel de la Cruz (Braves)
Atlanta Braves vs. Jeremy Hellickson (Phillies)
Park - Citizens Bank Park
I’ll start this off with another disclaimer: There are a lot of good pitchers going on Friday night. I’d say well more than half of the games feature an average starting pitcher or above. That, combined with a bunch of pitcher’s parks in play and we likely see even more Coors exposure than normal. But outside of that game, I’m looking to this one in Philly. It’s weird to be headlining a stacks article with these two teams who’ve been primarily bottom feeders for much of the season. Now the good news on the Phillies is they are coming rather cheap across the industry, which makes sense because they aren’t good. But they’ll face a pitcher in Joel de la Cruz who’s about as bad as it gets from a peripheral standpoint. He does induce groundballs, but strikes out less that five batters per nine and owns a 5.17 xFIP. Odubel Herrera is a high on base guy with a nice floor and Ryan Howard provides power upside on the very cheap.
Meanwhile the Braves have picked things up with the bats of late. With Ender Inciarte locked into the leadoff spot (.350 OBP gets it done there) and Freddie Freeman putting together the best season of his career (.930 OPS) the Braves aren’t quite the dregs they once were in the beginning of the season. Their implied run totals are well up in the short term and it’s a team with more depth in the order now.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies)
Park - Coors Field
We can't talk stacks tonight without mentioning one of the teams in Coors Field tonight. It currently holds a high 11.5 Vegas total with the D Backs coming in as early -125 favorites which puts them in the 5.8 projected runs range. That could very well be low as they rake against left handed pitching this season ranking 2nd in wOBA(.347), 1st in Isolated Power(.204), and 1st in OPS(.818). Jorge De La Rosa shouldn't provide much resistance tonight as he has been average at best this season with a 4.78 xFIP. He brings just an average K rate(7.04 K/9) to the table and lacks control with a 3.99 BB/9 rate which can get him into a ton of trouble as he is giving up a below average 14.5% HR/FB rate this season. The core of your D Backs stack should be centered around Paul Goldschmidt who carries a .444 wOBA and 176 wRC+ against southpaws into tonight. Welington Castillo, Rickie Weeks and Yasmany Tomas also have season wOBA's above .400 against left handed pitching.
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