Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FantasyAces  - Deutsche Bank Championship

DFSR is proud to bring you Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. If you are new to DraftKings PGA DFS be sure to click on the banner below.

Want to see how more analysis and information on building lineups for The Deutsche Bank Championship? Chris has his targets and cheatsheet for only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Deutsche Bank Championship

TPC Boston - Norton, MA

Par 71 - 7,297 Yards

 

The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week as the field has been narrowed down to 100 players(Actually just 99 with Danny Willett skipping the playoffs). The Tour heads to a familiar destination in Norton, MA for the 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship. TPC Boston has played host to this event since the PGA Tour playoffs were introduced back in 2003. The course was originally designed by Arnold Palmer and opened in 2002. In 2007 Gil Hanse(olympic Course designer) and Brad Faxon took on an extensive remodel of the course. They shortened course and opened up the idea of risk/reward on many of the holes. They also re graded almost every fairway and green and added local "Chocolate Drop" mounds and grass bunkers. TPC Boston isn't considered hard with a winning final score of -15 to -22 over the last five years. Golfers will be just gripping and ripping from the tee as there is a nice mix of driveable Par 4's combined with some tougher landing areas that were created with the remodel.

When analyzing the stats on my cheatsheet this week(26 in total) I have decided to concentrate heavily on the Strokes Gained metrics as they cover a golfers entire game. I am leaning heavily on SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach with Putting and Around the Green sitting right behind in importance. I also like to weigh in Par 4 and 5 scoring combined with Birdie or Better % as it will correlate very closely to DraftKings scoring. Another narrative this week that can't be quantified by a stat is the four remaining Ryder Cup roster spots on the USA team. Davis Love III made it clear that almost anyone inside the Top 100 would be considered and that he wants the eight players already on the team to help pick the final four. Some of the big names in the mix are Bubba Watson, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler, J.B. Holmes, and Jim Furyk to name a few. Let's dig in and take a look at some of the top plays at each tier.

 

Below are the keys stats I am weighting this week:

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Total Driving
• Par 4 & 5 Scoring
• Birdie or Better %

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's). I will also be joining Doug on the Wednesday Podcast to discuss the tournament each week. Also on Wednesday, you can join me for a live Google Hangout over at Slurv.com. I am always available on Twitter as well(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

 

 

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Jason Day
Vegas Odds - 8/1
Draftkings - $12,500
FantasyAces - $6,200

What stood out to me more than anything last week was how awful Jason Day was off the tee(35% Driv Acc and ranked 72nd in SG:OTT) yet he was still able to finish T4 shooting a seven under par. Despite having to hit out of the rough for the majority of the four days he still had close to a 70% GIR(ranked T19) and led the field in SG:Putting. So when he gets that drive figured out again, look out!! Course history is something I will be looking at closely to break ties between players and Jason Day gets the check mark when I was deciding between him and DJ this week. In the last five years Day has four Top 15's, two Top 10's and a Top 5 finish here. Everything is trending in the right direction for Day.

 

Jordan Spieth
Vegas Odds - 12/1
Draftkings - $11,600
FantasyAces - $6,000

Spieth is starting to heat up and is on the brink of winning once again. He has now finished inside the Top 15 in three of his last four tournaments including two Top 10's and a Top 5 at the Bridgestone. Like Day he was a little wild off the tee hitting under 50% fairways last week but nailed the greens at a 72% clip which ranked T6 for the week. Had his putter not failed him on the weekend(lost SG to the field on Sat and Sun) he would have been in contention on Sunday. Looking at the stats he ranks 3rd in my model highlighted by 5th rank in SG: Putting, 14th rank in SG: Around the Green and he is Top 10 in both Par 4 and 5 scoring. I also believe he will once again come in much lower owned than Day and Johnson making him an elite GPP play.

 

Adam Scott
Vegas Odds - 21/1
Draftkings - $10,400
FantasyAces - $5,750

He continued his impressive season this past week at the Barclay's with a T4, his 6th Top 10 of the year. He doesn't seem to get mentioned as much as the five players ahead of him and this could be to our benefit this week. Scott hasn't missed a cut on tour this year and has picked up multiple wins for the third time in his career. Looking at the stats he is elite in many areas including Proximity(3rd), Par 4 Scoring(14th), Par 5 Scoring(12th), SG:APP(1st), SG:T2G(1st), BoB%(10th). His ownership in the $3 Birdie last week on DraftKings was around 19% and that could take a hit this week with rise in price. If he can make a few putts this week he has a great shot at winning and moving up in the FedEx Cup rankings as the Tour Championship approaches.

 

Also Consider - Sergio Garcia 

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Jim Furyk
Vegas Odds - 41/1
Draftkings - $8,800
FantasyAces - $5,400

I will be targeting this range heavy for cash games this week and starting my lineups with Furyk. Since missing two of his first three cuts after returning in May, he has made 10 straight cuts including three Top 10's and a Top 5 finish. He also comes back to TPC Boston with some very consistent course history. He has made all 11 cuts here in his career including four Top 10 finishes. The reason I think of him as a cash game only play is due to his poor statistical ranking in Par 4 Scoring(116th), Par 5 Scoring(96th) and most of all his Birdie or Better %(175th).

 

Russell Knox
Vegas Odds - 81/1
Draftkings - $7,500
FantasyAces - $4,750

Although I like the narrative of the American golfers trying to impress their way onto the Ryder Cup team, I much prefer the Knox narrative this week. Even after picking up two wins this season on the PGA Tour this season he was snubbed from the European Ryder Cup team. I strongly feel this will motivate Knox to go out there and try and prove something this week. He definitely has all the tools to do so as he ranks very high in a ton of accuracy stats including 6th in GIR, 13th in Proximity. He finished 12th here last year and 26th the year before and I could easily see a Top 10 this week with how well he is playing this season as he sits 7th in the FedEx Cup standings.

 

 

Also Consider - Jamie Lovemark

 

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Brendan Steele
Vegas Odds - 201/1
Draftkings - $6,600
FantasyAces - $4,250

Steele is one of my favorite value plays this week and is safe in any format. He continues to come in at a mid $6K price despite his current form. He has finished 17th and 22nd the last two weeks and has made eight of his last 10 cuts with six Top 25 finishes. He also has some nice course history making all four cuts at TPC Boston including one Top 10. He ranks 11th in SG: Off the Tee, 15th in Total Driving and 8th in Par 5 Scoring. All signs point to high exposure to Mr. Steele.

 

Also Consider - Webb Simpson

 

 

Deutsche Bank Championship Update Thread

 

 

Want to see how more analysis and information on building lineups for The Deutsche Bank Championship? Chris has his targets and cheatsheet for only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces. Fill out the form below or Purchase Through PayPal.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.