Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC on Fox 21 - 8/20/16

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I almost feel bad for this card because it has to follow UFC 202, which was completely insane - knockouts and finishes galore! If you read last week, the picks here went 3-0 and all won in the first round, a great foundation for any lineup. Turning to Saturday night's UFC on Fox 21 event, there are some big names at the top (some of which I want no part of in DFS) and more than a couple fighters making their UFC debut on the undercard. Then you have to add in another week where the DraftKings salaries just don't follow the odds. All of that leaves us plenty of room to find the stoppages and value we need, let's get to it!

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

 

VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)

Alessio Di Chirrico ($11,000)

Vegas Line: -255
Finish Prop: +115
Career Record: 9-1
UFC Record: 0-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.33
Finishes: 4 KO / 4 Subs / 5 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision - Bojan Velickovic

The selections over $10,500+ aren't really exciting to me but the best of the bunch is Alessio Di Chirrico as he squares off with Garreth McLellan. This fight should stay on the feet and Di Chirrico did land 4.33 significant strikes per minute in his UFC debut. McLellan is now 34 years old and was knocked out in his last outing - the third time he's been finished in four career losses. Di Chirrico also has one of the better finish props on the card at +115 and eight of his nine career wins have come via stoppage. Salary space really shouldn't be an issue in your lineups this week and even at $11,000, I wouldn't hesitate to plug in Di Chirrico in a handful of lineups. That being said, I won't lean too heavily on the Italian, but among the higher priced options, Di Chirrico is definitely the way to go.

Prediction: Di Chirrico - Unanimous Decision

 

MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)

Sam Alvey ($10,200)

Vegas Line: -225
Finish Prop: +111
Career Record: 27-8 (1 NC)
UFC Record: 4-3
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  3.26
Finishes: 17 KO / 3 Subs / 13 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round Submission (Guillotine Choke) - Eric Spicely

You may have picked up a lack of enthusiasm when talking about Di Chirrico - well I'm going to do a total 180 for Sam Alvey. This guy is an absolute monster in the cage and he's super aggressive, which we love from a DFS perspective. Alvey's last two losses came against a guy who knocked him out and another who was able to use his movement to avoid his striking. Kevin Casey can do neither of those things, he just can't. Admittedly, it's MMA and anything can happen, but I really don't see a path to victory for Casey and I expect Alvey to dominate the fight. The one thing Casey has done is prove that he is durable and a hard guy to finish early. But Alvey has tremendous power and can either turn out the lights or savagely pummel Casey until the referee stops the fight. Either way, I'm loading up on Alvey at $10,200 because the price is too good for a guy with -225 odds and a +111 finish prop.

Prediction: Alvey - 2nd Round TKO

 

UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)

Kyle Bochinak ($8,900)

Vegas Line: -200
Finish Prop: +242
Career Record: 6-1
UFC Record: 0-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.47
Finishes: 2 KO / 2 Subs / 3 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision - Charles Rosa

Here we go again, more slim pickings in our price-point structure for picks. Most of my favorite targets are between $9,600 and $10,400 but Kyle Bochinak is the clear exception at $8,900 - thanks to the wacky (as of late) DraftKings salaries. Bochinak has clear value as a -200 favorite and +242 finish prop in addition to being one of the cheapest fighters on the card. He did lose a unamimous decision in his UFC debut but overcame the newbie jitters to land a respectable 3.47 significant strikes per minute. Bochinak steps into the cage with Enrique Barzola who won his UFC debut in November but wasn't overly impressive. Barzola had 13 pro fights before joining the UFC and amassed only two first-round finishes, giving me confidence that Bochinak will at least make it the distance if he doesn't win by stoppage. This one is simple value thanks to salary as you get to roster the better fighter among two young prospects. Bochinak makes a good cash game play but I won't saturate my GPP lineups simply because there are better places to find finishes.

Prediction: Bochinak - Unanimous Decision

 

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