Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/25/16

Close personal friends of Jered Weaver, be forewarned: It's not looking good for you guys. We've got the Blue Jays projected to do major damage against the soft-tosser tonight in Rogers Centre, while a Seattle stack could shape up nicely, as well. Read on for all of today's position-by-position picks.

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PITCHER

Max Scherzer FD 10900 DK 11600
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @WSH
FD - 43.45 DK - 28.44

No matter on which side of the matchup you stake your claim, there's always some risk when the Orioles are involved. They've got one of the majors' most power-laden lineups, leading all of baseball in ISO against RHP and overall. But there's also plenty of swing-and-miss here, too, and that's what we're banking on tonight. That, and Scherzer's 11.22 K/9, of course. It also helps that he'll be going up against Ubaldo Jimenez, which is no doubt a big reason why the Nats have opened as a -230 favorite. Despite the fact that Scherzer is coming off a pair of pretty mediocre outings (one of which was in Coors), he's about as steady as they come for fantasy goodness, delivering double-digit K upside and working into the seventh and beyond more often than not. That combo gives him the elite upside we're looking for, and though he gives up his share of dingers, the Ks + IP + win probability means the floor is about as high as you'll find on this slate or any other.

Adam Wainwright FD 8400 DK 6900
Opponent - NYM (Lugo) Park - @STL
FD - 32.73 DK - 20.98

If you're looking to pivot away from Scherzer to save some cash, Pomeranz is probably the place you should turn on one-pitcher sites (assuming you're an all-day kinda guy/gal). But for your SP2 needs, Wainwright looks like a great value on DraftKings today. Nobody's mistaking him for the ace he used to be, but his 2016 line isn't that far out of whack. Yeah, he's nibbling a bit more and as a result giving up more walks than he did in his best years, and the hard contact allowed is up quite a bit, so that .328 BABIP probably isn't all bad luck. But there's still some solid stuff here, especially if you wipe away an awful April. The counter argument is that he's been on an ugly run for about the last month, so your level of faith in Wainwright is likely going to boil down to which guy you think he is right now: the one who sucked in August and April, or the one who was good in the months between? Per usual, we're siding with track record over trends, and the fact that the Mets aren't the world's most imposing offense doesn't hurt.

Consider: Drew Pomeranz

CATCHER

Russell Martin FD 3400 DK 4900
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.7

Woo, boy. He's gonna cost you on DraftKings, maybe to the point that he's not playable in cash. There's a couple of things to consider here. One is that DK's pricing algorithm is pretty sharp, so it's probably seeing the same things we are. Namely, Jered Weaver in the Rogers Centre. The other thing to remembers is that at such a high cost, chances are ownership will be low, and that makes Martin all the more intriguing for GPP purposes. Over on FanDuel, he's in play everywhere. He's nearly returned to the level we're accustomed to after an unspeakably bad start to the season, and he's been holding down an enviable spot in the heart of the Jays' order lately. But yeah, the importance of Weaver in Rogers here can't be overstated. We'll have more on that in a few.

Victor Martinez FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.5

Y'all know about V-Mart, right? Mashes from both sides of the plate, hardly strikes out, pretty good at baseball. A year after it looked like he was in steep decline, he's summoned a vintage season in 2016, more than doubling last year's homers and putting up a .358 wOBA that almost perfectly matches his career mark. There are few matchups in which he's out of consideration, and this certainly isn't one of them. Jose Berrios is an acclaimed prospect, but he's been completely overmatched in his rookie year. The sample on him is tiny, but through 32 big-league innings, he's struggling to find the plate and keep the ball in the yard, so we've got no hesitation in picking on him, especially with Professional Hitters like Martinez.

Consider: Buster Posey

FIRST BASE

Edwin Encarnacion FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @TOR
FD - 15.21 DK - 11.39

Alright. Let's talk some more Jered Weaver. He's got one of the lowest K/9 rates in baseball, a "fastball" that barely cuts through a stiff breeze, and the fact that he gives up nearly two HRs/9 isn't a fluke. His home run-to-fly ball ratio is right where it should be at 12.7 percent. That's how you end up with a 5.47 ERA and a 5.91 xFIP that tells us, "yep, he's really that bad." As for Edwin Encarnacion, he's a homer waiting to happen. He's got 35 on the year and his ISO is on the incline for the fourth consecutive season.

Adam Lind FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - CHW (Ranaudo) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.97

As enticing as Encarnacion's matchup is, he's not the projection system's top play on a points-per-dollar basis at 1B tonight. That distinction belongs to Lind, one of the most unexciting dudes to ever post a career ISO over .200. He's made his living off of power hitting against righties, and he's in a good spot tonight at US Cellular Field against Anthony Ranaudo, who is not a good pitcher. Ok, I guess we haven't seen enough out of the 26-year-old to say that definitively, but I'm comfortable making assumptions that don't quite stand up to statistical rigor when the guy has more walks than Ks and as allowed 17 homers in 69 career innings. Ranaudo got his most extended big-league audition back in 2014 when he posted a blistering 3.43 Ks per 9 in seven starts. Even Jered Weaver scoffs at that.

Consider: Brandon Moss

SECOND BASE

Matt Carpenter FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - NYM (Lugo) Park - @STL
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.42

Speaking of anonymous pitching, the Cardinals draw Seth Lugo tonight, a 26-year-old rookie who made nine relief appearances before turning in a solid performance against the Giants in his first major-league start last week. The book on him is obviously thin, but what we can glean from the minor league numbers tells a story of mediocrity, so we'll be happy to use some St. Louis lefties tonight. Chief among them is Carpenter, who after last year's power breakout, as actually improved across the board. He's showing gains in wOBA (.394), ISO (.244) and walk rate, while decreasing the Ks significantly. In short, he's been (kinda quietly) very, very good.

Robinson Cano FD 4000 DK 5200
Opponent - CHW (Ranaudo) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.9 DK - 10.03

When Cano left the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, many wondered if his power would travel with him to the West Coast. It looked like a valid concern when he had just 14 HRs in 2014, but now just looks silly. He hit 21 bombs last season and has 28 this year, with his highest ISO since 2012 (arguably the best year of his esteemed career). So the power plays everywhere, and it'll get a nice bump tonight from the White Sox home park and Anthony Ranaudo's generous offerings of meatballs.

Consider: Greg Garcia for salary relief, especially if he climbs out of the eight spot.

SHORTSTOP

Troy Tulowitzki FD 3200 DK 5100
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.17 DK - 8.51

You guys are gonna want to stack some Blue Jays somewhere tonight. I mean, is it possible that Weaver keeps them in check? Yeah. Sure. Baseball doesn't deal in certainties. But nearly all conditions required for an offensive bonanza are in place. Bad pitcher. Fly ball tendencies. Homer-happy park. Homer-happy lineup. After spending the better part of April tilting the DFS universe with repeated underwhelming performances, the Blue Jays rank third in MLB in ISO this season. Tulowitzki has mirrored that in-season improvement, with his numbers climbing steadily across the board after a posting a .274 wOBA and .169 batting average in April. This provides us with Example No. 234,840,976 of why sample sizes and track records trump all. Tulo will probably never reach his Coors Field peak again, but it's hard to do better than a .215 ISO from a moderately priced (at least on FanDuel) shortstop.

Tim Anderson FD 2300 DK 4000
Opponent - SEA (Paxton) Park - @CHW
FD - 8.86 DK - 7.89

And now for something completely different. Though the Mariners' starter is officially listed as TBD, James Paxton is expected to get the call in his return from the DL and that's the assumption we're operating under. Paxton has been pretty good in limited run this year, finally making good on the potential that's been expected from him for a while now. He's not a guy we're just dying to pick on, but Anderson's price on FanDuel is just too good to ignore, and we kinda like him in the matchup anyway. He strikes out more than we'd like and a walk every once in a while would be pretty sweet, but with seven homers and six steals in less than half a season's worth of work, there's some upside to be found here.

Consider: Jhonny Peralta

THIRD BASE

Josh Donaldson FD 4300 DK 5100
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.62 DK - 11.11

Get your tickets for Homerpalooza 2016,  featuring Josh Donaldson as a main stage attraction. You know the drill. Weaver bad. Donaldson mash. Rinse, repeat. Obviously, Donaldson is a favorite of the algorithm any time he faces a lefty, but talents this elite rarely need to be faded just because of the lack of a platoon split. Donaldson owns a .200 ISO in his career vs. RHP, and though splits take forever to stabilize, it's at least worth mentioning that that number is at .272 in 2016.

Adrian Beltre FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - CLE (Tomlin) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.52

Another lefty-killer we're recommending vs. a righty, Beltre is more of a value-first play today, especially on DraftKings, where he's a good bit cheaper than our other No. 2 option, Kyle Seager. Seager gets the slight edge in projected points, but we think overlooking Beltre without serious consideration would be a mistake. Like a lot of the guys we've talked about already, he's an aging superstar who just keeps churning out excellence (or something pretty dang close). The power had been on the way out over the last couple of years before 2016's resurgence, highlighted by a .190 ISO and 21 home runs. That's right in line with what he was doing 10 years ago, folks, and, since then, he's become one of the hardest guys in the league to strike out. And while he remains significantly better against lefties, we're not ducking a low-K, high HR guy like Josh Tomlin, especially not in a great hitter's park like Globe Life Stadium.

Consider: Kyle Seager

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper FD 3900 DK 5500
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @WSH
FD - 15.94 DK - 12.3

Heads up, everybody. It looks like the correction we've been waiting on is finally underway for Harper, and while the DraftKings pricing has noticed, FanDuel's has not. It's gonna be tough to get away from him on the latter, because even in a "down" year, Harper is still doing a lot of the stuff we like to see, including posing an ISO north of .200 while walking more than he strikes out. The only other guy in baseball with more than 100 PAs who can make that claim this year is David Ortiz, whose work you are probably familiar with. And we haven't even gotten to the fact that he's facing Ubaldo Jimenez yet. Jimenez has flirted with awfulness numerous times in his career, and 2016 could mark a new low. His walk rate (5.61 per 9) is at an all-time high, and he's dangerously close to crossing the 5.00 threshold in xFIP, despite doing a decent job of suppressing homers. The (very real) risk here is that Harper walks every time he comes up and robs us of some upside, but we love the floor, and at his FanDuel price, upside is almost just a bonus.

Michael Saunders FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.08 DK - 10.06

If you were a lucky kid, you probably had at least one Christmas morning when the gifts bestowed upon you redefined your definition of joy. That's kinda what the projection system is experiencing right now with Jered Weaver going to Toronto. Look, we don't relish the chance to dump on guys (Note: not true), but there's just no way to avoid it today. Saunders has all the benefits that come with every other Blue Jay we've recommended, but with a platoon split kicker. With a .234 ISO and .359 wOBA, he's enjoying the best year of his career in his first full season with Toronto, and with a spot in the middle of the order, he should have plenty of run-producing opportunities tonight.

Seth Smith FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Ranaudo) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.77 DK - 8.91

Depending on how the lineups shake out, you might be able to find deeper punt plays who hold intrigue, but few will likely be as reliable as Smith. The veteran lefty has hung around the big leagues this long because of the work he does against right-handed pitching (career .358 wOBA, .199 ISO), and we love the matchup for him against a green/bad pitcher in a park that boosts power numbers. Perhaps just as important is the fact that he'll likely be slotted in his customary No. 2 hole, and surrounded by lefties with positive platoon splits on all sides.

Consider: Miguel Sano, Jurickson Profar

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