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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

08/21/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/21/16

 

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PITCHER

Danny DuffyDanny Duffy FD 10000 DK 12900
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @KC
FD - 36.31 DK - 23.86

Yep, Danny Duffy is really good. Really good. Over the last 10 games, he has had one where he struck out 16 and a few where he had 8+ K's. On the year, Duffy has sported a .288 wOBA against right handers and a rediculous .202 wOBA against left handers. While the Twins don't have too many lefties, the few they have are going to have some mighty trouble. Against lefties, the Twins have struck out 23.4% of the time to go along with a .182 ISO. The game will be played in Kauffman Stadium, which is one of the absolute best pitcher parks in the entire. While it will be very tough to play Duffy at this price, try not to be scared by the name and play the trigger. Duffy makes for a tremendous play in both cash games.

Gio GonzalezGio Gonzalez FD 8100 DK 8900
Opponent - ATL (de la Cruz) Park - @ATL
FD - 34.68 DK - 22.43

Same strategy, different day. The Braves are taking on a lefty and we are picking on them. Since the start of the season, the Braves have sported a league worst .284 wOBA that is mightily backed up by a .103 ISO and a rediculous 28.9% hard contact rate. Gio Gonzalez on the other hand, has been really good against both lefties and righties with a .298 wOBA and a 8.00 K/9. Turner Field is a very good park for pitchers as it ranked in the bottom third for both left handed and right handed power. In cash games, I am going to lean on Danny Duffy. That being said, Gio Gonzalez is a very good option in tournaments.

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CATCHER

Brian McCannBrian McCann FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - LAA (Chacin) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.54 DK - 7.92

Starting us off at the catcher position, we are going to look at Brian McCann. McCann and the Yankees will be taking on Jhoulys Chacin, a right handed soft tosser that has been very bad against left handers. In 52 innings, Chacin has sported a .352 wOBA against lefties and that number is held up by some very strong peripherals and batted ball rates. McCann is a pure power hitter at this point in his career and is surely reliant on power. If you are looking for more of a cash game option, I would go for a guy like Wilson Ramos.

Evan GattisEvan Gattis FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.5 DK - 7.94

Evan Gattis, another guy that is strictly a tournament play, is a great one tonight as the Astros are taking on Yovani Gallardo. While Gallardo used to be good, he is far from it at this point and has been horrible against right handers. In 45 innings against righties, Gallardo has exhibited a .352 wOBA that is backed up by 5 homers allowed and a putrid 5.36 K/9. Camden Yards is one of the best in the league for right handed power and I would not be surprised at all if Gattis hits one out. While he is a bit expensive on DraftKings, he is very fairly priced on FanDuel.

 

FIRST BASE

Adrian GonzalezAdrian Gonzalez FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.71

This has to be one of the weaker first base days of the year as there is nobody I am overly excited to play. That being said, there are still a few really good option that are definitely in consideration for both cash games and tournaments. While Adrian Gonzalez hasn't been terrific this season, he has still been very good against right handers. In 320 at-bats against right handers, A-Gon has sported a .357 wOBA as well as a .307 batting average, which is way above average. Though he doesn't have a huge power swing anymore, he can still hit a home runs, especially in the hitter friendly great American Ballpark.

Ryan HowardRyan Howard FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @PHI
FD - 8.91 DK - 6.74

Like I said, today is not very exciting at first. When Ryan Howard is my favorite cheap guy in tournaments, you can be assured that the position is pretty weak. Howard and the Phillies will be taking on Mike Leake, a right hander who has problem with powerful lefties. So far in 2016, Leake has given up a 11 home runs to lefties in just 62 innings. Ryan Howard is the perfect guy to take advantage of Leake and while he is definitely risky, he is a risk im willing to take in certain tournament formats.

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SECOND BASE

Dee GordonDee Gordon FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - PIT (Vogelsong) Park - @PIT
FD - 8.78 DK - 8.45

Dee Gordon is definitely one of my favorite hitters to roster as he accumulates fantasy points in so many different ways, and can have a huge fantasy night without the blink of an eye. With stolen bases counting as a double, speed is something that should be considered at all times. Gordon certainly has that as he was the 2015 stolen base champ and hasn't gotten any slower. The Marlins are taking on Ryan Vogelsong, a veteran right hander who has struggled holding runners over the course of his career. If Gordon gets on base, expect him to run. In cash games, Gordon is as good of a play as you will find, though this next guy is very interesting as well.

Logan ForsytheLogan Forsythe FD 3800 DK 5100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TB
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.66

While this is the first Tampa Bay ray mentioned, I absolutely love them tonight in Tropicana Field. While the ballpark isn't tremendous, Forsythe is far from reliant on the home run swing. Logan Forsythe in particular, has been very good against lefties over the past 3 seasons with a .361 wOBA that is supported by plenty of peripherals and batted ball rates. Though we will touch on Martin Perez later, just know that he struggled mightily against right handers, especially on the road where he has given up 6 of his homers. While Dee Gordon is a bit safer, I am a fan of Forsythe in both cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel where he is only $3800.

 

SHORTSTOP

Corey SeagerCorey Seager FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.96

Corey Seager is an absolute animal and has clearly proven that thus far into his rookie year. Against righties in particular, Seager has sported a crazy .397 wOBA to go along with a 37.7% hard contact rate and very nice peripherals. Anthony DeSclafini on the other hand, has been very bad at home against lefties with a .372 wOBA as well as a 1.74 HR/9. Seager is going to be my clear cut top option at shortstop and I love him in both cash games and tournaments. let's now take a look at a guy to get some tournament exposure to.

Carlos CorreaCarlos Correa FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.51

Correa and the Astros are in a very tremendous spot here against Yovani Gallardo, who is very bad as I mentioned. Correa has absolutely demolished right handers since entering the league with a .364 wOBA which is undoubtedly held up by plenty of peripherals and batted ball rates. Dating back to 2014, Camden Yards has ranked 3rd in the league for right handed power, though it was considerably behind both Coors Field and Chase Field. In cash games, I am going to sick with Corey Seager. That being said, tournaments are completely different.

 

THIRD BASE

Evan LongoriaEvan Longoria FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TB
FD - 11.4 DK - 8.7

Evan Longoria, our 2nd Tampa bat, is one of my favorite overall hitters of the day. As I mentioned, Martin Perez has some serious issues against righties. In 121 innings, Perez has given up 13 home runs to go along with a .340 wOBA and 33.1% hard contact rate. Longoria on the other hand, has absolutely demolished lefties over the course of his career. Dating back to 2011, Longo has sported a .382 wOBA against lefties and it hasn't dipped a bit this year as evident by the .391 he has possessed. While he is more of a cash game play usually, I am a big fan of him in all formats against Martin Perez.

Justin TurnerJustin Turner FD 3700 DK 5100
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.37 DK - 8.86

Justin Turner against righties is something you should pay attention to a ton. The Dodgers are obviously one of our favorite offenses on the slate as they will be heading into the hitter haven that is Great American Ballpark. Turner has been much better against righties over the past 2 seasons as he has sported a .382 wOBA as well as a .186 ISO, with those numbers taking place in Dodgers Stadium. While Longoria is definitely my favorite play at third, I am going to have some serious tournament exposure to Turner and the rest of the Dodgers big bats.

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OUTFIELD

Bryce HarperBryce Harper FD 4100 DK 5100
Opponent - ATL (de la Cruz) Park - @ATL
FD - 14.95 DK - 11.53

Bryce Harper is still way too cheap on FanDuel and I will keep playing him against righties. He is still one of the best hitters in the game and there is no reason to think he is any worse than he was at the beginning of the season. While Cruz isn't a terrible pitcher, ,he has given up a .326 wOBA against lefties to go along with 3 home runs in just 20 innings of work. Harper has held a +.380 wOBA against righties for his entire career and I am willing to lean on that in my cash games. If you aren't, please join mine.

J.D. MartinezJ.D. Martinez FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @DET
FD - 12.83 DK - 9.82
Justin UptonJustin Upton FD 2600 DK 2700
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @DET
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.72

Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez come in as my favorite outfield duo here against the lefty in Eduardo Rodriguez. While Rodriguez has fixed a few of his problems, he still struggles against righties with a .340 wOBA that is backed up by an insane 12 home runs in less than 55 innings. While I prefer Martinez in cash games, Upton is my preferred play in tournaments as he is cheaper and will be far less owned, and the upside is unquestioned. Both Upton and Martinez have held wOBA's over .360 against lefties over the previous 2 seasons, which is elite.

Mikie MahtookMikie Mahtook FD 2000 DK 2200
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TB
FD - 7.39 DK - 7.35

While he is far from my 4th favorite outfielder, he is probably my top when you factor in the price. Sitting at just $2K on FD and $2200 on DraftKings, he offers some crazy savings. The Rays are one of our favorite offenses of the night as they will be taking on a lefty that has really struggled against right handers. Though Mahtook isn't a tremendous hitter, he has been serviceable against both lefties and righties. If he is in the top of the lineup, make sure you get some exposure. I am going to try to keep him to tournaments, but I could see the cash game viability due to the pure savings and what he lets you do at other positions.

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8 Visitor Comments

  1. Mahtook vs Griffin is a great pick, especially since Griffin already threw 5 2/3 Saturday night…he’ll probably be really tired!

  2. you guys are brutal…especially since the comments talk about a lefty. Obvious misprint…

  3. You guys think whitesox do good today against A’s pitcher?

  4. Look, I appreciate the free advice, but this writer consistently makes these kinds of errors and rarely recommends a pitcher under 10k or a hitter under 5k. The posts are entertaining reading, but I hope no one here is using this as the backbone of their DFS strategy.

    • Be careful, constructive criticism isn’t taken very well in these posts. Especially thru the weekdays.

  5. Doesn’t anyone notice that Miggy is under 4000 on DK against Henry Owens, a lefty?

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