RBC Heritage Practice Round April 10, 2012 in Hilton Head, SC
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Sedgefield Country Club - Greensboro, NC
Par 70 - 7,127 Yards
After a somewhat negative buildup to the Olympics spearheaded by the media, it appeared to be an overwhelming success. It was Great Britain's Justin Rose capturing golf first Gold Medal in 112 years with Sweden's Henrik Stenson taking Silver and the USA's Matt Kuchar taking home the Silver. You could really get a feel from watching and listening to the players that this competition had more of a Major Championship feel than just a regular tour event or even a World Golf Championship event. I can't wait for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, Japan.
This week the PGA Tour is back on it's regular schedule with the Wyndham Championship from Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. It will be the very last event before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin next week at the Barclays. That means anyone outside the Top 125 will be busting it hard to get enough points to get inside the playoff cut line. It will be an exciting weekend to watch golf as the television feed usually has hole by hole updated standings throughout the weekend. Here is a look at the FedEx Cup points bubble going into the tournament:
As you can see the bubble guys consist of a ton of low end guys in DFS making it a great week to load up on stars and scrubs in GPP formats if you are into the playoff narrative. If you are looking at key stats this week the course is not daunting in length but more setup so that you have to hit your spots to have a shot at the small undulating greens. For this reason I will weigh Driving Accuracy higher than Distance this week. With the smaller greens I will also look more closely at Proximity and more specifically from 150-175 & 175-200 for the longer hitters and 200+ for the shorter hitters. With the course being a Par 70 we have 12 Par 4's so Par 4 Scoring Average will also be heavily weighed this week. Looking at the Strokes Gained Metrics(OTT, APP, ATG) this week I rank them Off the Tee, Approach and then Around the Green. So to recap I am looking for more accuracy than distance this week combined with not only a high GIR but close Proximity stats. As with any tournament on a weekly basis, if you want to win you better be dropping a ton of putts.
If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's). I will also be joining Doug on the Wednesday Podcast to discuss the tournament each week. Also on Wednesday, you can join me for a live Google Hangout over at Slurv.com. I am always available on Twitter as well(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!
High End Targets ($9,000+)
John Rahm
Vegas Odds - 29/1
Draftkings - $10,400
FantasyAces - $5,550
Get used to hearing his name. I am 100% on the John Rahm bandwagon. It took him almost no time at all to lock up his spot on Tour next year as he should easily finish inside the Top 125 in both FedEx Cup points and money list as a non member. He needs to only finish inside one to earn his card. He was hovering around $868,000 after the Canadian Open and then went on to earn a T25 at the Travelers and T14 in last weeks John Deere Classic. This will be his last event of the PGA Tour season as he is not eligible for the playoffs as a temporary member(same as Byeong Hun An) so look for him to go out with a bang. He doesn't currently rank on the PGA Tour stats page due to limited rounds but looking at the numbers through his first seven events(played all four rounds in all) he would rank high in most major categories including Strokes Gained: Off the Tee(would rank 4th), SG:T2G(would rank 6th), SG:ATG(6th), SG:TOT(1st). His worst stat is the Strokes Gained Approach(would rank 101st) but he makes up for that with an average drive of 305 yards which gives him a large number of shorter approaches. He finished T14 last week and still finished with 101 DK points due to his elite birdie making ability and putting. If he can avoid the double bogeys he will be at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Webb Simpson
Vegas Odds - 19/1
Draftkings - $10,200
FantasyAces - $5,450
Overall it's been a very quiet and successful season so far for Webb. While he hasn't won he has made 13/17 cuts dating back to the FRYS.com last fall and sits 74th in the FedEx Cup standings and will be looking to gain some momentum heading into the playoffs. He ranks very high on my stats model this week highlighted by an 11th rank in SG: T2G, 7th in SG: Approach, 26th in SG: Around the Green, 11th in overall Proximity and 9th in Par 4 Scoring. He also comes back to Sedgefield with terrific course history. He missed the cut here in his first trip in 2009 but has since made six straight cuts including a win in 2011 and four total Top 10 finishes. Webb is trending in the right direction and peaking at the right time. He is safe in all formats this week.
Kevin Na
Vegas Odds - 23/1
Draftkings - $9,100
FantasyAces - $5,400
Right at the bottom of the top tier this week is Kevin Na at $9,100 on DraftKings. I love him for cash but will limit my exposure in GPP's and here is why. He comes in as the 13th most expensive golfer this week meaning he needs to finish somewhere in the neighborhood of Top 10 in DK points to exceed value. I can see him getting close but not crushing that value. I believe he will be highly owned as his price dropped $1,400 after a T8 last week. He will be my core player in my cash games as he has played extremely consistent this year making 19 of 22 cuts including seven straight. He is Top 20 in Putting, and Top 40 in both GIR and Proximity.
Also Consider - Bill Haas
Kevin Kisner
Vegas Odds - 51/1
Draftkings - $8,300
FantasyAces - $5,200
One of my favorite plays, when considering price, of the whole tournament. Kisner started the year out on fire with four straight Top 10 finishes starting from November to January including his big win at the RSM Classic. He faded a bit following the T5 at the Sony Open with five missed cuts and just one Top 10(Dean & Deluca Invit) going into the summer. He is starting to trend back in the right direction making five straight cuts including a T18 at teh PGA Championship, T26 at the Canadian Open and T16 at the WGC Bridgestone. He finished 8th here in 2014 and has made all three cuts in his career. Look for one more strong finish before the playoffs begin. He is safe in all formats.
Justin Thomas
Vegas Odds - 41/1
Draftkings - $8,600
FantasyAces - $5,350
If it's upside you are after in GPP's take a shot with Thomas this week. He finished 56th in his first trip to Sedgefield last year after a final round 75 crushed his chances. Look past that final round and he shot three rounds of 68 or better. The upside for Thomas comes with his birdie making ability. While he only ranks 64th in BoB% he ranks Top 15 in both Par 4 and 5 scoring this year and is 24th in overall Proximity and 19th in SG: Around the Green. If he can avoid the big numbers(double bogey or worse) he has a great shot at finishing Top 10 or better in DraftKings scoring which would crush his value this week.
Also Consider - Harriss English
Camillo Villegas
Vegas Odds - 201/1
Draftkings - $6,400
FantasyAces - $4,500
Villegas is the first golfer I am listing who sits outside the bubble for the FedEx Cup playoffs starting next week. He sits 150th in the standings and will need a huge week to cross the cut line. While his statistics for the season suggest this may be impossible we know a player can pop up in certain events. This is one of those events for Villegas who won it back in 2014 and has made five straight cuts here. He is not at all safe in cash games but makes an excellent stars and scrubs option.
Shawn Stefani
Vegas Odds - 151/1
Draftkings - $6,500
FantasyAces - $4,300
Another play who sits outside the Top 125 and should be extra motivated this week. Stefani sits in 133rd, 40 points back of 125th in the standings. He has really made a surge through the summer making five cuts in six events since the FedEx St. Jude Classic back in June. He has made the cut here in both of his previous trips(51st in 2014, 45th in 2013) and would need somewhere in the range of a Top 20 finish this week to get in the playoffs. It can definitely be done if he can find the fairways and have good shots at the green as he ranks Top 20 in both Proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 yards. With his recent form and what lies ahead this week I would consider him safe in all formats.
Also Consider - Matt Jones
Rickie Fowler
Vegas Odds - 26/1
Draftkings - $11,700
FantasyAces - $5,850
It's funny how this daily fantasy golf has us sometimes flip flopping. I loved Rickie last week to breakout on the biggest of stages. He failed with just one good round at the Olympics and finished a disappointing 37th. Since May 15th he has only recorded one Top 10(WGC-Bridgestone) in eight events with three missed cuts. His overall game just isn't where it needs to be right now and priced as the second overall golfer we need big points not just made cuts. He can safely be avoided until he shows us some sort of form.
Want to see how more analysis and information on building lineups for the Wyndham Championship? Chris his targets for only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
Wyndham Championship
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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Hey Chris! Had a question for you for a preference on a couple lower end guys this week. Who in your opinion makes a better GPP play this week between Thomas Aiken and Jason Bohn? I'm leaning towards Aiken because of his driving acc and probable lower ownership % but I'd love your thoughts! Thanks in advanced!