Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/17/16
Welcome back to another Hump Day edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. Wednesday brings us a split slate with five early and 10 evening games. No matter what slate you choose there are a ton of great pitching options combined with another matchup at Coors. Be sure to check out all our content being released throughout the day leading up to lineup lock. Let's get started and take a look at some of the top plays at each position.
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PITCHER
Early Slate
Chris Archer FD 9400 DK 10600
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @TB
FD - 40.51 DK - 26.62
With Stephen Strasburg in a fade situation at Coors, at least for cash games, and J.A. Happ as the most expensive option we have a spot where Chris Archer is our top projected pitcher. The Rays are at home as big -200 favorites to the Padres who rank dead last in wOBA(.293) and 29th in wRC+(83) against right handed pitching. They have also been struggling recently with a poor .245 wOBA and 52 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Archer has blowup potential, like he showed last outing vs. the Yankees, but also has big upside with an elite 10.64 K/9 rate this season. Not only is Archer one of the top pitcher son the early slate but he also makes a great choice for an all day slate.
Evening Slate
Jon Lester FD 10800 DK 11200
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CHC
FD - 41.33 DK - 26.99
The Cubs continue to be the class of the majors with 74 wins and are currently leading the Brewers 4-0 in the 8th inning. They go into Wednesday's matchup as huge -260 favorites as they will send Jon Lester to the mound. He is having another impressive season with a sub 3 ERA and has been on a roll lately limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. His above average strikeout rate(8.85 K/9) will get a bump on Wednesday as the Brewers K the 2nd most (24.2%) vs. left handed pitching. Lester is a safe play in any format.
Yu Darvish FD 10200 DK 11400
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @TEX
FD - 38.15 DK - 24.91
Since joining the Rangers rotation in late May, Darvish has been impressive with a 2.91 xFIP and elite 11.60 K/9 rate. He will seek his fourth win of the season on Wednesday as the Rangers look to pull out the brooms against Oakland. The A's have had a rough season 18.5 games back in the division with an American League worst -100 run differential and rank 27th in wOBA(.340) against right handed pitching. Darvish comes with safety for cash games as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts and like I mentioned earlier he has K upside that is great for tournaments.
CATCHER
Early Slate
Russell Martin FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.78 DK - 7.5
His salary has taken a big jump on DraftKings but he remains in play on both sites. He is scorching hot right now with home runs in three straight games and hits in four of his last five with seven runs batted in and five runs scored. He will get another great opportunity to extend the streak on Wednesday vs. CC Sabathia who has been terrible over the last few months. He has pitched to a 4.87 xFIP, below average 6.41 K/9 rate and is walking over three and a half batters per nine. Martin is safe in all formats right now.
Evening Slate
Jonathan Lucroy FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.77
Lucroy got the night off on Tuesday after slumping lately going hitless in four of his last five games. He will be in a great spot on Wednesday to get back on track vs. the A's and Sean Manaea who has struggled in his first season in the majors. He has pitched to a 4.18 xFIP over his first 17 starts and has had trouble with the long ball giving up at least one home run in eight of his last 11 starts. While Lucroy has hit righties slightly better this season he has positive splits against southpaws for his career. The price is a little steep for a slumping player and while he doesn't make the best cash game play he has the upside for tournaments.
FIRST BASE
Early Slate
Mark Teixeira FD 2700 DK 2900
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @NYY
FD - 8.87 DK - 6.67
If you are rostering a high end pitcher or want a piece of the Coors matchup today you will need a few punt plays. Teixeira is one of those plays today at the first base position. He presents value on both sites as he comes in under $3K giving your lineup a ton of flexibility. He isn't the hitter he once was thanks to father time but he can still hit one out of the park and has positive splits vs. left handed pitching. With A Rod out of the picture Teix has moved back into the cleanup spot and is the center of attention in New York.
Evening Slate
Anthony Rizzo FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.86 DK - 10.59
With all the elite options at first base tonight the ownership should be spread out nicely. Out of all the high end options Rizzon comes in as the best value according to the projections in large part to the excellent matchup. I love targeting Jimmy Nelson, especially when he is on the road where he has a brutal 5.91 ERA while allowing opponents to hit a cool .292 off of him. In his last two road starts he has allowed 12 earned runs while striking out eight and walking seven batters. Rizzo has elite power upside and has been a very consistent option with just two games without a hit since July 23rd.
Dae-ho Lee FD 2400 DK 2800
Opponent - LAA (Skaggs) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.04 DK - 6.92
With his recent struggles against right handed pitching, Lee looks to have found a platoon role. He should be back in the lineup on Wednesday as the Orioles face lefty David Price and the Red Sox. The good news is Lee's price has dropped a ton on both sites making him another punt option if you are paying up for pitching tonight. Punting first base is not a popular strategy which makes it a nice contrarian approach tonight when most people will be paying up for the same pitchers.
SECOND BASE
Early Slate
Daniel Murphy FD 4400 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 13.81 DK - 10.88
Murphy is the cream of the crop at second base in the early slate. He is having a MVP type season with an elite .347/.387/.612 slash line with a career high 22 home runs and 87 RBI. His 159 wRC+ also puts him in elite company as only Mike Trout, Jose Altuve and David Ortiz have higher totals. Take that elite talent and place it in Coors Field and you have an terrific play for daily fantasy no matter the format.
Evening Slate
Ben Zobrist FD 3300 DK 4300
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.18
As you will soon realize the projection system will be picking on Jimmy Nelson like that bully in 8th grade. Enter Ben Zobrist who is having another terrific all around season with a .275 average and elite .382 on base percentage. His value is also peaking right now with him being moved in to the cleanup spot in late July. Zobrist has a slightly better average against southpaws this year but has hit for more power against righties with a 123 wRC+ and .175 ISO. He is safe in all formats.
Chase Utley FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Thompson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.4
If it's value you are after second base is a great place to find it. Chase Utley continues to produce in the leadoff spot for the Dodgers despite grey hair taking over his dome. He comes into Wednesday game with multiple hits in four of his last six games. He will have a great shot to extend that streak tonight vs. Jake Thompson making his 3rd career start. Things have been shaky in his first two starts as he has allowed nine earned runs in his first 9.1 innings pitched in large part to the lack of control(five walks). Look for Utley and the Dodgers to take advantage tonight.
SHORTSTOP
Early Slate
Troy Tulowitzki FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.38
Tulo continued his hot streak on Tuesday night with four hits including his 21st home run of the season. He is making up for an awful start to the season that eventually seen hi hit the DL in June. Since returning on June 18th he has shown the elite ability we have all come to love with Tulo slashing .295/.350/.542 with a 136 wRC+. He will be licking his chops at breakfast on Wednesday waiting to face the struggling CC Sabathia as Tulo has strong splits vs. left handed pitching this season and throughout his career.
Evening Slate
Corey Seager FD 3800 DK 5000
Opponent - PHI (Thompson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.21
At just 22 years of age Corey Seager is running away with the National League Rookie of the Year and is even in the discussion for MVP at this point. He is putting up elite numbers despite the Dodgers ranking 19th in overall runs scored. His 74 runs scored rank himn 6th in the NL while he sits Top 20 in home runs, average, and wOBA. Seager is the top option on the Dodgers today in a great matchup vs. the Phillies and Jake Thompson as they come in with a projected run total north of five.
Jose Reyes FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.86 DK - 7.76
Since returning to the Mets lineup after a short stint on the disabled list, Reyes has picked up hits three of four games including back to back multi hit efforts. He brings value to your lineup out of the leadoff spot where he can utilize his speed and run creating ability. The price is getting a little high on DraftKings for him to be considered in cash games but remains a near must play on FanDuel as long as the price stays below $3K.
THIRD BASE
Early Slate
Evan Longoria FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @TB
FD - 11.79 DK - 9
Longoria is having a fantastic season and has returned to form that we have not seen in quite a few years. He has hit with a very nice balance of average(.289) and power(26 HR/70 RBI) that has produced an elite 136 wRC+ which is his highest total since 2012. After putting up 15 runs on the Padres last night the Rays will look to keep it going Wednesday afternoon vs. lefty Christian Friedrich. For his career, Longoria has strong splits with a .384 wOBA, .248 ISO and 146 wRC+ vs. left handed pitching. He makes a better play on FanDuel where he is the 4th in salary on the early slate. I prefer Donaldson vs. a lefty at the same price on DraftKings.
Evening Slate
Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.83 DK - 10.62
Cubs. Cubs. Cubs. Who doesn't like the Cubs? They have put together a terrifying lineup and have won 13 of their last 15 games scoring an average of five runs per game. They will most definitely be the chalk tonight in a terrific matchup vs. Jimmy Nelson who has lost five straight starts and has pushed his xFIP to 4.80 for the season. That isn't good at all. Combine that with his inability to keep the ball in the park(13.7% HR/FB rate) and you have a great pitcher to target. Bryant continues to build on his career high, MVP like stats with a .304/.385/.543 slash line in August.
Justin Turner FD 3300 DK 5100
Opponent - PHI (Thompson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.68 DK - 9.1
While I prefer Kris Bryant on DraftKings at the same price, I love the discount for Turner on FanDuel. The projections are picking on Jake Thompson just about as much as Jimmy Nelson and for good reason. He has allowed nine earned runs in his first two starts with a 5.17 xFIP while striking out seven and walking five batters. Turner on the other hand has been red hot since the start of July slashing .314/.358/.628 with 10 home runs and a 162 wRC+ for a mid level offensive team. At $3,300 on FanDuel he is safe in all formats tonight.
OUTFIELD
Early Slate
Thomas Pham FD 2400 DK 3500
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.56 DK - 6.88
Another excellent value play in the early slate. He is coming off a two hit game last night including a double and his 9th home run of the season. He now has hits in five of his last six starts for the Cards. His stats are of a small sample size but he has been much stronger against right handed pitching with a .393 wOBA and 148 wRC+. If he is starting once again, especially in the leadoff spot, he is a must play vs. Doug Fister and 4.75 xFIP.
Evening Slate
Josh Reddick FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Thompson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.31
Are you starting to see a trend? It's a small sample size but Jake Thompson has been dreadful against left handed batters giving up a .416 wOBA against 23 batters in his young career. Targeting the Dodgers left handed bats is highly recommended and very affordable tonight. Reddick has been up and down since joining the Dodgers and is best in a stack or GPP lineup and has shown upside with multiple hits in three of his last five games.
J.D. Martinez FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - KC (Ventura) Park - @DET
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.07
The Tigers right fielder has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since returning from the disabled list on August 3rd. In his first 12 games back he is slashing .413/.460/.761 with four home runs and a 228 wRC+. There is no doubt he will eventually come back to planet Earth but until he does or the price gets too high he makes an excellent play in all formats. He will get a matchup vs. Yordano Ventura who has shown upside this season but has disappointed overall with a 4.59 xFIP and 14.5% HR/FB rate.
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image sources
- Anthony_Rizzo_2012: By bengrey on Flickr (Original version)UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
5 Visitor Comments
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Here we go…best stack on the night slate is an Indians stack. Not one Cleveland hitter listed. Lee is a good play, but not because he is facing lefty Price; even better…he is facing lefty Skaggs. What is that saying about the blind squirrell? Can’t wait for the pitching column to hear how Jon Niese is a sneaky play against the D-Bax.
First of all, I appreciate you stopping in and reading the article. Our process for for the main picks article is based off our projection system and is written the night before. Not all information is 100% fed into the feed the night before which sometimes leaves some teams absent. This is why we have multiple articles released throughout the day to discuss the viable options. We also have the chat where almost every pitcher and hitter is discussed in length throughout the day.
I have started to do my stacks a bit different as well. If the picks from night before are loaded with players from a certain team I will only touch on them in stacks article as it is pretty clear the projections are high on a team. I will use the stacks article to list a few other teams(Indians will be one lol) that were not covered throughout the article.
If you have any other suggestions or comments please feel free to let us now so we can continually improve our product.
Jerome, these guys give plenty of great advice for the equivalent of 50 per day if you subscribe and aren’t paying for the optimizer. As Chris stated they have an updates article EVERY day. Arrogance while criticizing others is an unattractive quality. Either you subscribe and these guys save you more than 50 cents worth of time per day in doing as much research as there is going into the projection system, or you are reading the article for free in which case you’re getting a pretty good deal either way. Don’t blame the picks article if you’ve been burned a few times. Baseball is volatile and everybody who has played knows it. Chris thanks again for the picks, good luck today everybody
They give statistics. Every day they are on the Cubs. And you have said before you are a Cubs fan. Can you honestly say that being a Cubs fan has nothing to do with some of your picks? I’m not talking today, it’s obvious they’re in a good spot today. All I can say is where’s Doug been? I know he was a Cubs fan but I really enjoyed reading Doug’s picks! Still appreciate your time & effort but I just think Cubs show up too much even if they have the best record in baseball.
Well looks to me your dodgers was pretty much right on