San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Johnny Cueto throws to the San Diego Padres during the fifth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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*Note - I discussed Max Scherzer, Michael Wacha and Trevor Bauer in the Main Article and will touch on a few other viable options below.*
Early Slate
Opponent - SD (Jackson) Park - @SD
FD - 33.39 DK - 22.05
Even wit just three games in the early slate we have options outside of Max Scherzer today. Lackey is at home to the Marlins as a big favorite but I am leaning Guerra due to the matchup. He gets a huge park shift to one of the best pitchers parks in the league and will face a Padres squad who rank 29th in wOBA vs. right handed pitching with a 24.8% K rate. With Matt Kemp moved out of town in a trade the Padres lose a ton of power in the middle of their lineup. Guerra has also been pitching extremely well lately limiting opponents to eight earned runs over 49 innings in his last seven starts with a 1.47 ERA. Look for those numbers to get even better after today.
Evening Slate
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @PHI
FD - 37.72 DK - 24.87
Looking at the evening slate it is going to be tough to get away from Cueto at the top despite the Phillies beating MadBum in a big way last night. Are the Phillies going to explode for 10+ again? I highly doubt it. Here's why. They rank 29th in total runs scored this season and sit right near the bottom in wOBA vs. right handed pitching. Yes they got to Cueto earlier in the year but small sample sizes are not a great indicator of future results. The Giants are fairly big road favorites(-163) while the Phillies are projected to score just above 3 runs. While Vegas isn't the be all, end all of our decision making, it definitely helps us get an initial feel for the matchup. Despite the minor struggles over the summer months, Cueto has kept his ERA in the mid 2.0's with a 8.00 K/9 rate. He is the safest choice if you are constructing a cash lineup today.
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @NYY
FD - 28.45 DK - 18.73
Matz is the one pitcher on the entire slate that I don't agree with the optimizer on. The low projection could have to do with the late addition of the Vegas information but either way I feel he brings some upside to a matchup vs. a Yankees team that has pretty much given up on the season. For the year, the Yankees rank 26th in wOBA and 28th in Isolated Power vs. left handed pitching and those numbers should get worse after they traded away Carlos Beltran. Outside of a couple bad starts this year Matz has been excellent with a 3.35 ERA, 3.45 xFIP and 8.44 K/9 rate. Those are not, by any means, elite numbers but in a matchup as the favorite vs. a weak team I will take my chances, especially on DraftKings where you can get him under $9K.
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