Indians at Orioles July 16, 2011
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
If you don't like making tough decisions, you're gonna hate this slate. But if you like having loads of arms and plenty of offenses to pick from, it doesn't get much better than what we're looking at tonight. Fifteen games, a handful of aces, plenty of mid-tier arms with upside, and some of the best hitting environments MLB has to offer (including Coors Field). Let's get to it.
Personnel
Detroit Tigers
Our projection system isn't one to overreact to recent results, and that's important to know here for a couple a reasons. 1) It tells us something about the pitcher James Shields has become, and 2) even though he's pitched well recently, the issues that reared their head in cartoonish fashion earlier this season are still lingering. That doesn't mean he'll go through another spell in which he surrenders 23 ER in less than 10 innings, but it does mean he's liable to get blown up without advanced warning. And that's what we're betting on if we choose to stack the Tigers against him, because the chances for a boom come with the risk of a bust. The case for the latter is pretty simple: Shields is on a run of six straight quality starts, including limiting the Tigers to two runs over six innings two starts ago. But the case for the former is embedded within that same start, because both runs came off of homers and the results (a 3.00 ERA) didn't at all match the underlying stats (5.98 xFIP). Looking beyond the immediate past to a larger sample, the home run and walk issues that have plagued Shields over the last year and a half or so are still there. He's giving up 1.47 HR/9 since the beginning of the 2015 season, and in 2016 his walks (3.9/9) are at an all-time high, while his Ks (6.29/9) are at an all-time low. That's a flammable cocktail, and while it's certainly conceivable he goes out and keeps the damage to a minimum tonight, we're not betting on it. In other words, get some GPP exposure here, but don't overdo it. Also, a quick word about Detroit: contrary to expectations, the Tigers have been much better this season against RHP, ranking fifth in MLB in wRC+ in the split. A big part of that is due to Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos bucking their histories and posting massive reverse splits. They should make nice building blocks tonight, while Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez and Justin Upton are also in play.
Los Angeles Dodgers
And now for your obligatory Coors pick, with the usual disclaimer that both sides are tournament-worthy, even with respectable arms on the hill. We're not terribly excited about picking on Jon Gray, because the rookie has been impressive, even at home. He's also on a nice run lately, but it should be mentioned that he's had the luxury of facing the Braves and Phillies in three of his last four starts. Nonetheless, he's got great swing-and-miss stuff, but when lefties make contact, they hit him pretty hard. He's giving up 1.59 HR/9 to lefties at home with a 36 percent hard-contact rate in the split regardless of locale. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been an above-average offense against RHP this season, and that was before the acquisition of Josh Reddick, who owns a .400 wOBA and .207 ISO in the split while striking out in just 10 percent of PAs. He's a big reason why we're inclined to pay the premium for at least one Dodgers stack tonight, and if he's slotted near Corey Seager (.398 wOBA, .225 ISO vs. RHP) and Justin Turner (.384/.239), they'll be first guys we roster from this lineup tonight.
Ok, I'll wait until you stop laughing. Look, we get it. Perdomo's season stats are ugly, and with as many good arms as we've got going tonight, you may not want to go this far down the list to find some salary relief. And even though we think the potential for value is there on one-pitcher sites, we really feel better about this pick as an SP2 on DraftKings. An explanation if probably in order here. First, the ownership percentages are likely to be really low. I'm guessing people will take a quick glance at that 6.89 ERA and sprint in the other direction. And while we don't want to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian (especially at pitcher), the low ownership is really just a bonus here. That brings us to the second, and most important point. Perdomo probably isn't as bad as you might think. His xFIP is nearly three runs lower than his ERA, and while a 4.06 xFIP isn't a lock-and-load kind of number, a significant part of that came as a reliever. As a starter he owns a 3.71 xFIP, which is totally respectable, especially against a watered-down Brewers lineup in Petco Park. That said, lefties can get to him, so if the Scooter Gennetts and Kirk Niewenhuises of the world scare you off, so be it. But he's limiting righties to a 25 percent hard contact rate with four times (!!) as many grounders as fly balls, so he can definitely keep a lineup like the Brewers in check. Speaking of Milwaukee, they rank 25th in MLB in wRC+ and lead the league in strikeout percentage against righties, and that's with Ryan Bran (who hasn't played in a week) and Jonathan Lucroy (now in Texas) in the lineup. Don't get us wrong, Perdomo isn't a cash-gamer on any slate we've come across so far, and he's definitely not on this one. But he's a sneaky play for salary relief who will allow you to pay up for better pitchers and high-priced bats tonight, and we think he's deserving of your consideration.
I'll be honest, on a slate this loaded with pitching, Carrasco is not a guy I expected to be writing about when I first pulled up tonight's slate. But our system is projecting him to nearly match Madison Bumgarner for raw points and surpass all of the elite options on value basis, so let's dig in a little. As far as Carrasco is concerned, there aren't any mind-blowing revelations to be found. He's not quite probably as good as his 2.45 ERA, but he's a reliable high-floor guy with double-digit K upside when he's on his game. He hasn't hit that ceiling since whiffing 14 Blue Jays on June 30, but he also hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs in a start since June 8, so he's rarely going to keep you out of the money in 50/50s and double-ups. One cause for concern is that he hasn't worked seven full innings since the aforementioned outing in Toronto, but one thing we're not all that worried about is the fact that Twins went off on Danny Salazar last night. Let others concern themselves with Max Kepler's apparent three-HR upside; we're more focused on Minnesota's subpar 93 wRC+ and 22 percent K rate against righties this season. Supporting our case is the fact that the Indians are a -205 favorite tonight, and that win probability is a huge boost for Carrasco on sites like FanDuel.
Speaking of improbable "Every Lineup" guys ... Garcia isn't the kind of dude we usually feature in this space, but his inclusion in all of the projection system's top optimal lineups isn't that surprising on this slate. Put simply, it's a price play and will make Coors bats and elite pitching much easier to fit in. He's super cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but there's also more to like than his punt-level costs. Garcia should be hitting leadoff, and owns a .366 wOBA against RHP this season. And while the sample size (97 PAs) is limited, it's enough to sustain our interest. He'll also be going against Dan Straily, and Zac Eflin is the only pitcher going tonight with an xFIP worse than his 5.02 mark. It should be noted that the Cardinals will be missing Aledmys Diaz (not to mention Matt Carpenter), but there are still plenty of bats here who do good work against righties, so we like Garcia's chances to reach base a couple of times and score a run or two. Yeah, that's not much of an upside, but we don't need big points to return value on these prices.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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