Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/1/16

 

We're coming off a solid weekend around these parts even if Mike Pelfrey Day didn't turn out quite as expected. Now it's time to wake up an grind it out on a Monday short slate of baseball. Even with so few games there are a couple of interesting decisions. Namely: do we pay up for pitching or spend more on the bats. It'll be tough to do both.

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PITCHER

Stephen Strasburg FD 11600 DK 12900
Opponent - ARI (Bradley) Park - @ARI
FD - 41.09 DK - 26.94
It’s a super short slate today and we are going to need to pay up for that top tier of pitching. Strasburg is that tier. His numbers this season are right around those elite levels. He’s striking out close to eleven batters per nine though the walks are up a bit over his career averages. He’ll face a Diamondback team striking out more than 23% of the time against righty arms and coming in around the middle of the wOBA pack in that split. The park doesn’t do Stras any favors, but he’s the best money line guy on the day with the most raw talent. It’s a tough fade with so few games.

Danny Salazar FD 10300 DK 10400
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @CLE
FD - 34.51 DK - 22.97
He’s the next price tier down, but has sick upside if he can put it all together. Salazar’s biggest issue is control. While the 10.14 K/9 is elite, the 3.82 BB/9 does him dirty and submarines some games for him because he runs his pitch count through the roof. His 3.63 xFIP is worse than the 2.97 ERA so we get a little buyer beware, but the Twins own a 22% K rate against righties this season. I don’t think Salazar is safe by any means, but he has the upside if he can lock in around the strike zone.

CATCHER

Brian McCann FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - NYM (Verrett) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.15 DK - 6.86
I much prefer McCann going in Yankee Stadium with that short porch in right, but the matchup against Verrett plays just about anywhere. Verrett’s one of the weaker arms on the slate with a 4.83 xFIP thanks in part to his stubborn insistence on walking batters in bunches (3.87 / 9). The works for McCann who’s been more patient this year, walking right around a career best 11% of the time. He has power upside for the position and the price doesn’t break the bank on you.

Travis D'Arnaud FD 2100 DK 2800
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.72 DK - 6.75
Tough to stomach I know, but the prices on Travis are just still so cheap. He’s coming near the minimum on FanDuel. And I know the numbers don’t look great for him (understatement) but it’s important to know d”Arnaud’s been terribly unlucky against lefties for his career.He actually strikes out less and walks more in that split, but the .190 BABIP has meant a lot of balls finding a lot of gloves. It somewhat depends on where he hits in the order but I like him coming cheap all around.

 

FIRST BASE

Anthony Rizzo FD 4300 DK 5300
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.56 DK - 10.36
The Cubs have one of the better expected implied run totals on the day thanks to Tom Koehler. Rizzo’s putting together a fantastic season with a .962 OPS along with 24 home runs. He’s also walking at a great rate which gives him a solid floor in just about any matchup. The price has come down a little in the short term on him especially on FanDuel where I love him for cash games. While I do think you’ll have to pay up for pitching, his mid tier pricing makes it easier to stomach. (Update: Conley is pitching for the Marlins today. I still like Rizzo even in the lefty-lefty matchup)

Dae-ho Lee FD 2700 DK 3000
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @SEA
FD - 9.79 DK - 7.49
I suspect he’s somewhere in or around the middle of the order for the Mariners today against the lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Lee doesn’t have much of a sample size against lefties, this being his first year, and he’s actually been better against RHP. But it’s close and he K’s less and walks more against southpaws. Rodriguez just isn’t good, with an xFIP well over five and no real encouraging signs on the peripheral front. The Mariners do a good job of staggering their lineup for splits and I expect Lee to hit around the middle of the order.

 

SECOND BASE

Ryan Schimpf FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @SD
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.07
The Padres aren’t exactly the bottom-feeding offense from earlier in the season thanks in large part to adding lefty bats in the middle of the lineup with Schimpf and Alex Dickerson. The former’s still coming on the cheaper side for a guy with a .900 OPS. I don’t think he sticks in that range over the long term, but there are some reasons to be encouraged. He’s walking more than 14% of the time and has actually run bad in BABIP since being called up. Granted he’s been super hot in the power department so the truth is somewhere in the middle. Still love this spot for him against Jimmy Nelson.

Neil Walker FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.63 DK - 6.63
As a switch hitter, Walker’s been platoon neutral for his career but this season he’s hitting lefties well with a .365 wOBA and .865 OPS. Granted, the PAs are limited but we take what we can get. He’s hitting in and around the clean up slot for the Mets right now and does have a little pop in his bat with 16 home runs on the year. I’m also encouraged with the boost in walk rate this season though some more K’s have come with it. Makes for a cheaper option hitting middle of the order against a weaker arm in Sabathia.

 

SHORTSTOP

Troy Tulowitzki FD 2800 DK 4300
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.31 DK - 6.33
Still coming much too cheap on FanDuel at $2800. The Blue Jays (as evidenced by the plethora of them in this picks article) are in one of the best spots today. Doug Fister is worse than his mid 3’s ERA with the xFIP creeping toward five. Basically Fister stinks. Tull’s been better for his career against lefties and this year’s been no different. But I’m willing to buy in a reverse platoon because he’s affordable and Jays are projected to put up runs today. Hitting fifth in the order behind some awesome bats has Tulo’s price at a total bargain. (Update: Tulo is a bit banged up. Javier Baez would make a solid option if hitting near the middle of the order against the lefty Conley)

Trea Turner FD 3500 DK 3600
Opponent - ARI (Bradley) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.4 DK - 9.05
It looks like he’s locked into the leadoff slot for the time being and that’s excellent news from a fantasy perspective. For starters, he gets to hit in front of Harper (more on him a bit) which, if Turner can get on base, offer excellent run scoring potential. But the on base thing is a big “if”. Turner strikes out a ton and takes very few walks. He’s running incredibly hot in BABIP which makes him look like an on base guy, but regression’s coming. I’m still buying on the speed upside and that his price hasn’t fully come up to reflect his slot in the order.

 

THIRD BASE

Kris Bryant FD 4300 DK 4900
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.53 DK - 10.39
With pitching a little more expensive today on the top end, you won’t be able to fit all of the high priced bats but Bryant’s another guy to consider simply because the matchup is so tasty. Tom Koehler blows. He’s walking more than four batters per nine and that’s going to be a real issue with a super patient Cubs team that will grind you down throughout the order. Stacking Cubs is more than in play today and Bryant out of the two hole offers the power/ speed combo. Bryan’s raked this year to a mid .900’s OPS and .396 wOBA. He’s a top tier bat and third base is a fickle position for offense. (Update: Conley is pitching for the Marlins today. Bryant still a cash game play for sure.)

Travis Shaw FD 2600 DK 3000
Opponent - SEA (Kelly) Park - @SEA
FD - 8.28 DK - 6.44
It’s hard to fit Red Sox bats because they are all so expensive. It makes sense, the Red Sox but up runs and have fantasy beasts in that lineup. But Shaw is still coming on the reasonable side of things especially on FanDuel. The downside on Shaw is he typically hits way down in the order which crushes his plate appearance expectation. But the Red Sox, as a team, mitigate this some by running through the order more than the average squad. You’ll need to save in some spots today and Shaw’s an above average bat on a great offensive team.

 

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper FD 4200 DK 4700
Opponent - ARI (Bradley) Park - @ARI
FD - 14.76 DK - 11.39
By the looks of things Harper isn’t enjoying that kind of superstar year we’d expect. His OPS is in the low .800’s but that’s thanks in large part to a BABIP about 75 points off his career averages. Some of that could of sure be the shift on him. But it also strikes me as bad luck as well. He’s still walking more than he strikes out (incredibly rare) and offers the power/ speed package we want to see. His price is more than reasonable and gets a stadium boost today in Arizona.

Jose Bautista FD 3900 DK 4100
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.55 DK - 8.72
The DK price remains in the silly zone for a guy with Bautista’s talent level hitting out of the leadoff slot. Plate appearance expectation is so darn important when it comes to projecting value and to get a guy who walks 17% of the time while also offering huge power is just an ideal thing. He gets one of the better pitching matchup today against Doug Fister who lacks much in the way of strikeout stuff and will also issue free passes. Bautista is a cash game play all around.

Alex Dickerson FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @SD
FD - 9.04 DK - 7.12
He’s come out of the gate smoking hot for the Padres and, along with Schimpf, been a big part of the their recent uptick in run scoring. He’s OPS’ing around .900 and I’m really encouraged by how little he strikes out (11.2% so far). The park crushed power upside for sure, but that’s built into his price to some degree. Jimmy Nelson’s been putrid this season with a 4.72 xFIP, 6.77 K/9 and 4.00 BB/9. Those numbers are well below average and Dickerson should be in the middle of the order today.

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