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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 201 - 7/30/16
DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas
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Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?
VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)
Matt Brown ($10,900)
Vegas Line: -325
Finish Prop: -173
Career Record: 20-14
UFC Record: 13-8
Record In Last 5: 2-3
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.61
Finishes: 12 KO / 6 Subs / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 10 Subs
Last Time Out: L, 3rd Round Submission (RNC) - Demian Maia
Jake Ellenberger sucks. Oh, and Matt Brown is good...but really, Jake Ellenberger sucks. Matt "The Immortal" Brown is the second biggest favorite on the card at -325 (I expect that to move up by fight time) and the most likely to finish his opponent, who sucks, at a -173 prop bet. Brown is coming off a submission loss to Demian Maia, who is closing in on a title shot of his own, and Brown's other two losses in his last 11 fights have come via decision against the last two Welterweight champions. Put simply, Brown has been performing well against the top of the division and the same is not true of Ellenberger...who if you haven't caught on by now, is not someone I think highly of. Ellenberger is 2-5 in his last seven outings and those two wins came against guys who were way past their prime in Josh Koscheck and Nate Marquardt. He has also been finished three times in his last five fights and I expect Brown to add another mark to that tally and hopefully send Ellenberger over to Bellator. Brown will probably be one of the higher owned guys across DraftKings but he's worth playing in all formats - though I understand fading him in GPP's if you're really looking to differentiate your lineup.
Prediction: Brown - 2nd Round TKO
MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)
Nikita Krylov ($10,200)
Vegas Line: -155
Finish Prop: -115
Career Record: 20-4
UFC Record: 5-2
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.27
Finishes: 7 KO / 13 Subs / 19 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 3 Subs
Last Time Out: W, 2nd Round Submission (RNC) - Francimar Barroso
The judges can probably go take a nap during the Nikita Krylov vs. Ed Herman. Nikita "The Miner" Krylov has 20 career wins, all by stoppage, and 19 of those have come in the first-round, - he's basically a Daily Fantasy dream. Herman is a solid fighter and if he survives the first-round against Krylov, he has every chance to win this fight. But I don't think he'll get the chance, Krylov is a super aggressive fighter with the highest strikes landed per minute of anyone on the card at 6.27. Vegas agrees with a -115 finish prop for Krylov and his affordable price tag of $10,200 makes him a glaring target. I see this fight ending inside the first two minutes as Krylov hurts Herman on the feet and uses that to secure a submission. Krylov is dependent on the early finish but I'll have heavy exposure in both cash and GPP.
Prediction: Krylov - 1st Round Submission (RNC)
UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($8,600)
Vegas Line: +190
Finish Prop: +986
Career Record: 9-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.17
Finishes: 1 KO / 2 Subs / 2 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision - Heather Clark
I like the underdog in the co-main event of the night as Karolina Kowalkiewicz squares off with TUF finalist Rose Namajunas. Both women are good strikers and I see this fight staying on the feet. BUT if it does goes to the ground Kowalkiewicz should be able to defend the submission better than Angela Hill and Paige VazZant (Namajunas' last two finish wins). The output in this one could be crazy as Kowalkiewicz averages 6.17 strikes per minute and Namajunas as shown an unorthodox, in-your-face style. Kowalkiewicz is a polished stand-up fighter with an undefeated Muay Thai record before she turned to MMA. This one should be action packed and a decision win for Kowalkiewicz should be plenty to pay off her $8,600 price tag, especially with the potential for 75+ significant strikes.
Prediction: Kowalkiewicz - Unanimous Decision
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UFC 201
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image sources
- UFC_74_Respect_Bout: By Lee Brimelow (cropped from DSC_0029) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
7 Visitor Comments
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I have one question Shaun out of graves lawler and Serrano which one is most likely to score big like a first round stoppage? Thank you
For an early stop…I’m eh on all, but I’ll go with Lawler. Serrano and Graves are wrestlers that are not likely to finish quick. For value, I like Serrano the more I see him fight but for pure stoppage potential, Lawler.
Ok thank you I appreciate it
I have Arzamendia, Benoit, Krylov, Ries and Woodley
Toby – I don’t have any real issue with that, good luck! I really like Arzamendia as well.
Putting up anyting for tomorrow?
Submitted my article – should be going up today. Sneak preview: Moroz, Tybura, Ponzinibbio