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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/29/16
Welcome back to another fantastic Friday in daily fantasy baseball. With just one game scheduled in the afternoon(SEA vs. CHC), we will be focusing the following article on the 14 game main slate. It's another night with excellent pitching options at the top, middle and value tiers. This gives us a ton of different ways to go when constructing lineups. Let's get started with some top plays at each position.
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PITCHER
Max Scherzer FD 11600 DK 13600
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @SF
FD - 39.14 DK - 25.85
On a night with so many terrific options at the pitcher position, Scherzer leads the way with the highest projected points total on both sites. He is always a solid option as he comes with a high floor and ceiling with the leagues second highest strikeout rate(11.5 K/9) and 15.2% Swinging Strike Rate. Over his last 10 starts since June 1st he has an elite 1.71 ERA and has recorded double digit strikeout totals in six of those 10 starts for a 11.99 K/9 rate. The Giants look like a tough matchup on the surface as they only K about 17% of the time vs right handed pitching but there is some upside. They have been struggling over the last 14 days with the 22nd best wOBA and have been striking out over 20% of the time in that span. The Nationals are early -160 road favorites in a game with a low total(7) making Scherzer a terrific option in all formats.
Vincent Velasquez FD 9000 DK 9700
Opponent - ATL (Jenkins) Park - @ATL
FD - 35.15 DK - 23.22
If Scherzer doesn't allow you to get to the bats you want tonight there are a few other options in great spots that rate better on a PTS/$ basis & will give you that flexibility. Velasquez is one of those arms tonight as he gets a road matchup in Atlanta. Even on the road the Phillies come in early at -150 favorites. This is a testament to just how bad the Braves are. They rank dead last in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ vs. right handed pitching and have scored the fewest runs(346) in the league. Velasquez is having an impressive season to this point which surprising given the team around him. He has an xFIP 3.78 which isn't far from his 3.334 ERA and he comes with elite strikeout potential with a 10.11 K/9 rate. The one issue with Velasquez is his walk rate(3.34 BB/9) which elevates his pitch count and keeps him from going deep into games. For this reason I will only be using him in GPP's tonight.
Kenta Maeda FD 9000 DK 10200
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @LAD
FD - 38.96 DK - 25.61
Maeda is listed third in my picks but could be the top overall play on Friday. The projection system seems to think so as he is rated as one of the top PTS/$ plays tonight. The Dodgers come in as the biggest favorite(-195) in a game with a low 7.5 total in the leagues top pitching park this season(ESPN link to Park Factors 2016). Maeda is having a terrific start to his major league career with nine wins in 20 starts with a xFIP of 3.72 that suggests his ERA of 3.25 is sustainable moving forward. He has an impressive strikeout rate of 9.11 K/9 and swing strike rate of 11.7%. While the D Backs crush southpaws they struggle much more against right handed pitching ranking 18th in wOBA with a poor 23.4% strikeout rate. Maeda has the highest win potential on the slate and on FanDuel where the win is crucial for your pitcher he is an elite play tonight.
CATCHER
Evan Gattis FD 2900 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.64
The early projections are showing a ton of love for Gattis tonight making him a top play at the position, especially on FanDuel. With Gattis you get a a streaky power hitter that is in a groove right now with four home runs in his last four games, 17 for the season. You also get a hitter that has sizable splits vs. left handed pitching(.346 wOBA/116 wRC+) facing Matt Boyd who sports a 4.48 xFIP and gives up a 32.8% hard contact rate to right handed batters. The high price on DraftKings has Gattis as a GPP only play for me tonight but he is safe in all formats on FanDuel.
Russell Martin FD 2800 DK 2700
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.69 DK - 7.43
While I prefer Gattis on FanDuel in the same price range, I side with Martin on DraftKings as he comes at a big discount. After a slow start he is trending in the right direction. In July he is hitting .268 with an impressive .388 OBP and 110 wRC+. He takes a bit of a hit being moved down the order to the six spot with the return of Jose Bautista but provides some salary relief on a night when we will want to pay up for a top pitcher or possibly two.
Brian McCann FD 3100 DK 3200
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @TB
FD - 8.96 DK - 6.72
McCann makes a high upside GPP play as the park in Tampa Bay isn't the most favorable and Jake Odorizzi, despite the inconsistency, has been pretty good lately. The upside is still there as Odorizzi is prone to giving up the long ball with his low 37% ground ball rate and 12.2% HR/FB rate. McCann is much like Gattis in that he is a streaky hitter and is hot right now with a four game hit streak. He is in play on both sites with a price just over $3K on Friday.
FIRST BASE
Miguel Cabrera FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @DET
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.42
Don't get me wrong. David Ortiz in a fantastic spot tonight facing Tim Lincecum and if you can afford it run him out there on. I keep gravitating back to pitching tonight and want to get one or two of the top pitchers in my lineups tonight. To do that, taking one of the best hitters of our generation isn't such a bad idea. Even though it's 14th season in the big leagues he is still 33 years old and producing at close to elite levels. He is currently slashing .301/.382/.522 with a 138 wRC+ with 21 home runs on the season. His best value is on FanDuel where he is still under priced in the mid $3K range.
Chris Davis FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.06 DK - 9
He battled the flu for much of last week and is finally starting to come back around. He has picked up hits in back to back games and while I hate to use the word "due" I believe he is just that tonight. A big game is coming and the numbers back it up. While he is a high swing and miss power hitter he has an elite 41.8% hard contact rate vs. right handed pitching which has resulted in 22 bombs this season. While he won't likely get back to his monster 47 HR total from last year he should easily eclipse 30 starting with one against Marco Estrada who has given up at least one long ball in six of his last seven starts.
Jose Abreu FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.52 DK - 8.83
This pick has mostly a FanDuel stamp on it as DraftKings has adjusted his salary with the hot play. It was an awful start to the season for Abreu but there seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel. Since the start of July he is slashing an impressive .325/.380/.410 despite a return of the power we have come to expect over the last few years. The line drive and fly ball rates are on par with his career averages but has seen a drop in the hard contact rate which sits 3% below his career average of 34%. The lack of power seems to be what keeps his price affordable on Fanduel and if you are playing Scherzer he makes a fantastic high floor play on Friday night.
SECOND BASE
Jason Kipnis FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.73
Kipnis leads the way tonight at second base and comes in only behind Jose Altuve in projected points scored. He sits as a better play due to the discount you get and he also gets an equally favorable matchup tonight. Kipnis has been red hot since the June 1st slashing .303/.371/.551 with nine home runs and a 148 wRC+. He also comes in with strong splits vs. right handed pitching with a .375 wOBA and 236 ISO and gets a terrific matchup vs. Kendall Gravemen and his awful 5.69 K/9 rate.
Rougned Odor FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.72
Jurickson Profar FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.45
The Rangers, as a team, sit with one of the highest team totals of the slate and have some great options in the infield. While you have to make a decision between them on FanDuel(both 2B) you can roster them both on DraftKings as Profar is also 3B eligible. Profar has been the more consistent of the two hitting .296 with a .349 OBP and also hits at the top of the lineup. Odor, on the other hand, provides the power we love for tournaments(18 HR in 2016) and also has speed upside with 10 steals so far this season. The Rangers will face the roller coaster that is Edinson Volquez today. He struggles with control (3.40 BB/9) and doesn't have the K upside (6.8 K/9) to make up for it. While he doesn't give up a ton of home runs (10% HR/FB rate) he is giving up over a hit an inning this year with a pretty bad 4.39 xFIP. Outside of a stack I trust Profar in cash games and prefer Odor in GPP formats.
SHORTSTOP
Troy Tulowitzki FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.54 DK - 7.27
The will start a crucial series on Friday with division leading Baltimore and Game one is a bit of a stinker when looking at the pitching matchup. Vegas has this game as one of the highest totals of the slate putting both teams in play. Tulo is a strong play at shortstop at a mid tier price and comes in on a hot streak in July. Since the start of the month he is slashing .317/.348/.500 with four home runs and a whopping 17 RBI. Looking at the splits, Tulo is hitting for a slightly better average against southpaws but has hit 12 of his 16 home runs against right handed pitching. He is a strong play in any format.
Asdrubal Cabrera FD 2700 DK 3000
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.94 DK - 6.98
Cabrera could be one of the most boring plays in DFS. I always find myself gravitating to Cabrera every time there is an elite pitcher I want to roster on my lineup. He provides a nice salary relief in a middle infield spot and has even been hitting in the two hole the last few games giving him some added value. He isn't going to provide GPP winning upside but is most definitely safe in cash games. He has picked up a hit in four straight and 11 of his last 13 games coming into tonight's action against the Rockies and Tyler Chatwood.
THIRD BASE
Maikel Franco FD 3300 DK 3400
Opponent - ATL (Jenkins) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.53 DK - 8.13
He picked up just one hit in the first game of the series vs. the Braves but it was a big one. A three run homer which lead the Phillies to a 7-5 win. It was Franco's 6th home run in July and 18th of season. The RBI and run totals are less than impressive but it's hard to blame him with the talent, or lack thereof, around him. He and the Phillies get arguably the weakest pitcher on the slate. Tyrell Jenkins had been playing with fire in his four relief appearances and two starts as he had been walking over six and striking out less than five batters per nine innings. I say had been as he was rocked his last time out in Colorado giving up eight hits and seven earned runs. The Phillies are definitely not the Rockies nor is Turner Field the hitters park that Coors is, but Franco an co. should still be able to take advantage.
Adrian Beltre FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.69
Back to picking on Volquez for a minute. As I mentioned earlier the Rangers come in with one of the highest totals of the day putting them in a great spot from a DFS perspective. Beltre has been known as a lefty masher over his career which should sway a lot of people in another direction on Friday night making him a great GPP option. He has been providing upside we like to see with five multi hit efforts in his last seven games played. After two straight years where the power looked to be declining, Beltre appears to be back and pace for his 12th 20+ home run season.
Todd Frazier FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.17 DK - 8
The inconsistency that comes along with rostering Todd Frazier will have me fading him in cash games but the power upside will put me over weight in tournaments tonight. I get it. The .215 average is absolutely terrible but he sits second in the league behind Mark Trumbo for the home run lead and has added 67 RBI and 58 runs scored. hell he has even stole eight bases. He has also been extremely unlucky as his BABIP of .205 is over 70 points lower than his career mark. He gets an elite matchup vs. Ricky Nolasco who goes head to head with Jenkins(ATL) for the worst pitcher on the slate. In his last six starts, Nolasco has a 6.09 xFIP and identical 3.90 K/9 and BB/9 rates which is absolutely disgusting. He is also giving up a 42% hard contact rate which fits right into the Toddfathers hands. I could very well see Frazier and a White Sox stack taking home all the money's on Friday.
OUTFIELD
Bryce Harper FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @SF
FD - 13.13 DK - 10.12
As long as the price stays down on Harper I will continue to roster him as the hot streak is coming. I get it. The average is absolutely terrible(.235) but in four previous years he has never had a BABIP below .300.....until now. Not just below .300, but .235 so far in 2016. To me that says positive regression is right around the corner, especially as the hard contact rate sits just above 32% while he has brought his strikeouts down dramatically(16.7%) from prior seasons. He will be in a great spot to break out on Friday vs. The Shark who has been awful over the last month. In his six previous starts he has allowed 27 earned runs including nine long balls for an ugly 5.09 xFIP. Fire up Harper in all the GPP's today as the price won't be this low for long.
Matt Kemp FD 3200 DK 4800
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @SD
FD - 11.18 DK - 8.71
The price is low enough on Kemp and the Padres where not only do they make great stacking options but top cash plays as well, especially the right handed power hitters. Leading the way is Matt Kemp who continues to provide consistent power every season. Since 2009 he has hit at least 23 home runs in seven of eight season. He crushes left handed pitching (.407 wOBA/161 wRC+) and faces one of the weakest pitchers on the slate. There is literally nothing to like about Brandon Finnegan's game. The strikeout rate is slightly below average(6.55K/9), the walk rate is brutal(4.53 BB/9) and he is giving up 39.8% hard contact rate to right handed batters.
Nomar Mazara FD 2200 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.56
Delino Deshields Jr. FD 2100 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @TEX
FD - 8.82 DK - 7.65
One more time we are going to pick on Volquez. It comes down to price in the outfield with Mazara and Deshields. Even if you don't stack the max, fitting these two in on FanDuel can give you a ton of room to get Mad Max and a few top bats. Both of these guys have spent time at the top of the order so if you are only wanting to choose just one be sure to check the lineups in the early afternoon.
Mazara is going to provide you with a higher floor with a .335 OBP that is close to 40 points higher than Deshields and he also has more upside with much more raw power. Deshields, on the other hand, can cause a pitcher headaches on the base paths with his speed and has also shown some sneaky power with three home runs in 36 games this season after just two in 121 games all of last year. Either way you go the value is too good to pass up on FanDuel and will they will most likely go under owned on DraftKings.
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Solid picks I especially like the White Sox players in it. Even though I would prefer Melky Cabrera over Frazier you cannot ignore Frazier’s power numbers despite the low average.
Pitching today is a little odd as no one really stands out as a great play. Scherzer just looks to expensive against a team like SF that will work counts and has enough lefties and switch hitters to cause him fits. I expect a solid but not stellar outing.
Personally I’m liking Trevor Bauer. I know he has been off the last few starts but back home with the wind projected to be blowing in I think he can put together a very nice showing vs the A’s. He is especially enticing on Fanduel where a win gets you 12 and I expect the Indians to provide solid run support tonight.
Also No mention of the Sox vs Lincecum? Do they fall under the to good to be true category? After his last showing It’s hard to fade them tonight.
Thanks for the advice Dan. I can see where you are coming from.
WantedToBuy:TimeMachine
Can you suggest some advise for today? I’d like to hear what your thoughts are?
I was looking at the optimizer, there is no Dodgers, no Athletics or Indians in the projections. I like Maeda too.
Dbacks have knocked Maeda around pretty good his last two recent starts vs them. Lamb should be back and Tomas bat has been hot this week. I’m not saying maeda can’t shut them down but at his price seems like better options exist.
Yesterday you said to not even try to get “cute” by fading the Red Sox and listed every reason they will produce. Like thousands of people I’m sure, I took your advice and rolled out 100 stacks of 4 or 5 BoSox players along with other random players. I already had 100 random Phillies stacks created (with higher exposure to the top 6 in the lineup even!!) against that scrub of a pitcher, Wisler, but you made me rethink it. I got back $54 on my $300 investment in the DK $3 GPP. You know why I won $54? Because I did not use your main pitcher Fernandez at all who got 14 points, but instead used Ubaldo for a third of the price that got me over 20 points. I also had two of the other top 3 scoring pitchers on the night. This means with your pick, Fernandez, I probably would have won $0. 100 stacks of 4 Phillies and the correct pitcher choices? I can’t fathom any way I wouldn’t have placed very high (or won) and made a ton of cash. Especially when my exposure to Orlando and Prado was very high showing up in 70% of my lineups right along with the Phillies players. I wish when you made picks, you weren’t SO PERSUASIVE like you’d bet the farm on it. It influences people into making poor decisions sometimes. Please just make your picks, state your case for them, and don’t threaten us with what will happen if we don’t listen to you, which I have seen you do many times. Lesson learned which I already know from experience, but disregarded due to the confidence of a guy that I know has often been wrong: When you are MOST confident in a player or stack, that’s when I should really be scared lol. Is it my fault for changing the 100 lineups? Absolutely. Just glad I can afford it!
oops meant to put in hitter stacks article
@wantedto buy – you wouldn’t have won or placed very high with your picks. You needed hamels moreland and the cardinals. I’m sure you weren’t thinking along those lines based on your comments. I took down the GPP. Don’t blame and complain instead learn.
If you can’t spot the sucker in the first 15 minutes then you are the sucker!
Phillies stack pulled 5K last pm in FD.
Umm, yeah, so the winning lineup had 1 Cardinal. So what are you saying?? I had Aledmys sprinkled in as well, so for you to say I couldn’t have placed high is absurd. Now I know you don’t know what you are talking about. Sure, your Cardinal stack won it all. Yep. Uh huh.
And the perfect lineup last night would have scored 226 points with a single Cardinal player. With stacking 4 Phillies, there were literally hundreds of lineup combinations that could have won the tourney with more than 191 points…with as high as 213 points. You could have had the optimal lineup while excluding ALL Cardinals, finish with 198 points which would have won by 7 points. But you already know that, right? Since you can spot a sucker….or wait…now who’s the sucker?? Lol do your homework.
Wow. for people bitching about FREE advise given here. Put your big boy pants on and live with YOUR decisions. Everyone can say what they THINK will happen with conviction but it’s baseball. Anything can happen. Jered F’ing Weaver threw a complete game shut out a few weeks back. If you are so easily influenced by what someone writes you probably shouldn’t be playing DFS. It’s their opinion…do with it as you wish.
Well said Carlos…..I agree…..stop whining about free advise and boasting about being able to afford the losses.
Do the math buddy- hamels, bandy, Moreland, dozier, franco, Diaz, hazelbakee, kepler, althier
mine beats your philly stack.
@Hday – lol. he never even posted a specific philly stack so how could you possibly know if yours would win? that lineup you just listed wasn’t the winning lineup anyways, so not sure why you’re lying. I know for a fact that the winning lineup had Centeno at catcher with something like 3 points. you guys r all funny. just play the game and don’t lie and complain.
@Hday – and DK requires 2 pitchers, you listed only one….
I have been so cold lately, hoping these guys can help turn it around. Everyone was saying the Red Sox last night and how could you blame them? Fernandez was 26-1 at home going into last night…How can you blame them?
Sometimes weird things happen. No one could have projected a broken down has-been pitcher holds the best offense in baseball to one run with his 82 MPH fastball.
While I was doing pretty good earlier in the season and haven’t done anything lately, I can’t blame anyone that puts the work in.
Ya for the guy bitching about how the advice didn’t pan out get a life bro!! It’s not easy predicting what will happen on a nightly basis. I don’t pay much attention myself usually I use it as a comfort to look at after I build my lineups and if I see a few guys I used in his picks I will be like ok we are on the same page.
I will admit lately it seems like less thought has been put in. People who are hurt getting recommended , basically just using all 3 of the most expensive pitchers every night even if the numbers don’t pan out. Like why would you recommend Fernandez but then recommend using BoSox stacks knowing the salary would not allow that? IDK, but I do like the site and it is free so who cares. If you really lean on these guys that hard for advice you should probably stop playing DFS.
Might be to late but This Pirates pitcher Steven Brault is only 4100 on DK. His minor league numbers are ridiculous. Only a 1.07 WHIP, only allowed 11 Hr’s in 399 innings and over 350′ K to less than 100 BB. Brewers # 1 in K’s and #29 in offense and without Braun tonight. I think he is worth a dice roll especially since he is basically free at 4100 on DK and pair him with a good pitcher. Really allows for the flexibility to spend up on hitters.
@Grady
Obviously it was a FD lineup. Good luck man.
Try giving advice before you start drinking..i read your advice then pick the opposite. Your picks narrow the field by 1/2 thanks.
It’s nights like these that I’m glad I just do this for fun. I stack the White Sox in an incredible match up (Nolasco is terrible). Frazier is scratched and the other two do nothing. That’s what happens though. I’ll give it another shot tomorrow though.