Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our main picks article, but here are some other guys you can consider for big tournaments!
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Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @MIL
Austyn gave Corey Kluber top billing in the main picks article today, but I'm not convinced that we should totally ignore Jon Lester, particularly in big tournaments. Lester's resume is well known at this point, but it bears repeating. Yes, his ERA has outperformed his xFIP this season. Yes, the strike-outs are down. And, yes, the walks are up. None of these are good. But! You're still getting Lester at a discount to top tier aces, and while that's fair enough, it's not just about Lester here.
How about those Brewers? They're in the bottom half of the league in terms of wOBA against left handed pitching, but what really makes this an interesting match-up is there absurd strike-out rate. Their 24.2% K rate vs. southpaws is the worst in the league, and pairing that with their .145 ISO (5th worst in the league) means they're good for big games and don't usually beat pitchers down even when things are going right. The Cubs are a -154 favorite at this point as well, so a win looks plenty likely here as well. I frankly like Lester in any format today.
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @BOS
The most interesting thing about today's pitching options is how dramatically they go cliff-diving after the top few guys. I'm no fan of Rick Porcello's - I believe I've called him the most overrated pitcher of his generation like 4 different times with 2 years between each time. But you have to give it to him - he plays on a good team! Okay, that's the last one. Porcello is still overrated, but his now-reasonable K rate and still excellent BB rate gives him a decent floor for these bargain prices.
The Twins, meanwhile, are a perfectly adequate match-up for him. They're top 10 in terms of K rate vs. RHP, and bottom 10 in terms of wOBA. Tommy Milone is a truly terrible pitchers, and the Red Sox can still hit... so if you want to fade the top 2 guys and hold your breath through a Porcello start here, I think it's a perfectly reasonable GPP play.
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