Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - The Open Championship

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The Open Championship

Royal Troon Golf Club - Ayrshire, Scotland

Par 71 - 7,190 Yards

With flooding in West Virginia forcing the cancellation of the Greenbrier the focus for the remaining OPEN Championship spots turned to the European Tour's Scottish Open last weekend. It was Alex Noren taking home the hardware with the final four spots going Tyrell Hatton, Nicolas Colsaerts, Matteo Manassero, and Richie Ramsay. The field is now set for the OPEN Championship  and will consist of 156 players.

The Tour heads to Ayrshire, Scotland this week for the 145th OPEN Championship. It will be the 9th time that Royal Troon Golf Club has hosted the tournament with the first in 1923. The course is one of the most famous Links golf courses on the planet and was established back in 1878. It is set on Scotlands west coastline and it's biggest defense is the wind. That isn't Troon's only defense though as golfers will face extremely thick rough and near impossible fairway bunkers. Don't believe me? Watch this short video below:

As you can see it is going to be an interesting tournament to follow with the two distinctly different nines. The front nine with the wind at a players back makes a round in the 20's very doable and Birdie or Better % an important stat for me this week. The back nine is much harder playing into the wind combined with longer average yardage per hole which will result in me weighting Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling as well. As always I will look closely as the Strokes Gained metrics for the PGA Tour players with most weight on Off the Tee and Around the Green.

If you are playing the Milli Maker this week you will notice a slight change in the setup. The cost has been pushed up to $33 with the entries capped at 105,000. After the Million Dollar top prize the payouts drop significantly with the 2nd place finisher taking in just $150,000. Not that that isn't a life changing amount for most people, the point is that is is a super top heavy payout. To win the top prize you will have to be somewhat contrarian to get a unique lineup. That doesn't mean going crazy and picking guys who you know will be low owned just because of that factor. One of the best ways to be contrarian in these top heavy GPP's is to not use all your salary. The more money you leave on the table will increase your chances of getting a unique lineup. This is a great week to mix it up as well as the wind combined with Links format could give us some unexpected names at the top. With 84 of the top 85 players in the world competing there are some tremendous values at each price level. Let's dig in!

Below is a list of the key stats I am using in  my model on the cheatsheet this week:

 

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Total Driving
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Birdie or Better %
• Bogey Avoidance
• Sand Save %
• Scrambling

 

I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.

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High End Targets ($9,000+)

Rory McIlroy
Vegas Odds - 10/1
Draftkings - $11,800

I honestly don't think you can go wrong wit either of the Top 4 guys this week. Day hasn't stopped since 2015 with three wins already this year and many more close calls. DJ is coming off back to back wins including the US Open while putting on a Total Driving clinic and Spieth can turn it up to 11 at any given time, especially in these big tournaments. For me this week though it is going to be Rory. He never got a chance to defend his title from 2014 as he was absent last year with an injury. He has yet to record a win on the PGA Tour in 2016 but has four Top 5 finishes. He has picked up a win on the Euro Tour(Irish Open) and finished 3rd two weeks ago at the 100th Open de France. Statistically he is exactly what I am looking for ranked 3rd in SG:T2G, 1st in SG:Off the Tee, 8th in Total Driving, 6th in Par 4 Scoring and 5th in Bogey Avoidance. He will be my most rostered elite star at the top of the salary.

 

Adam Scott
Vegas Odds - 22/1
Draftkings - $10,600

After the Top 4 we are left with two guys in the $10K range and six in the $9K range. Adam Scott stands out among all those players for a few reasons. First of all is his OPEN Championship recent history. He has made 12 cuts in 16 Opens including six straight and four straight Top 10 finishes with three of those being Top 5's. He already has two wins this year(Honda Classic & Cadillac Championship) and has done fairly well with the new putting grip. The stats that really stand out to me are the 1st overall rank in SG:T2G and SG:Approach and6th overall rank in Birdie or Better %. If he can drain a few putts this week and stay out of trouble I believe a Top 10 is his floor this week.

 

Justin Rose
Vegas Odds - 33/1
Draftkings - $9,400

Standing out at the bottom of the top tier for me is Justin Rose. He is Top 30 in all Strokes Gained metrics outside of Putting highlighted by a 4th overall ranking in SG:T2G. He bombs the ball over 300 yards with decent control as he ranks 18th in Total Driving and 20th in Ball Striking. He hits a lot of greens and scores on Par 3's, 4's, and 5's and will also have a great shot at a ton of birdies and possibly eagles on the front nine as he ranks 16th in Birdie or Better %. Rose has experienced a rocky OPEN championship career making just nine of 14 career cuts but seems to be trending in the right direction as he picked up his second career Top 10 last year with a T6. In these loaded fields he always seems to come in under owned making him a great GPP play.

 

Also Consider - Jordan Spieth

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $9,000)

Lee Westwood
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $8,500

Westwood is not a guy that is going to stand out statistically for me this week. His distance of the tee is currently averaging under 290 yards with a low 56% driving acuracy. The part of his game I love is the scrambling ability which is just shy of 60% right now(top 10% in the field). What stands out the most for me is that he has been playing partners with each of the last two majors winners(DJ at the US Open and Willet at the Masters). He always seems to keep a calm about him which could be key with the ever changing weather and trouble scattered everywhere at Royal Troon. I fully expect him to be in the mix come Sunday.

 

 

Zach Johnson
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $8,100

The 2015 OPEN Championship winner comes in at a terrific discount at a price just above $8K this week. He has terrific Open history, especially if you disregard his first three Opens in which he missed the cut. Since then he has made the cut in nine straight years including his breakthrough win last year in a playoff. He lacks distance off the tee but knows how to get the ball to the green efficiently and he is a good putter as well. Looking at his scrambling game he ranks 38th but also ranks 17th in SG:Around the Green. The greens at Troon are below average in size and because of this I believe Proximity could be a factor on the approaoch and Zach ranks 2nd in overall Proximity this year. I am not saying he is going to win back to back Opens but can definitely see him crushing his $8,100 price tag.

 

Patrick Reed
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $7,900

Getting Reed under $8K seems like a steal. At first I thought maybe he would come with crazy high ownership but then I looked closer at the other golfer in that range. With golfers like Bubba, ZJ, Casey, Kuchar, and Schwartzel all within a $100 I think we can expect Reed to be in the 10-15% range which is enough for me this week in GPP. He fits the bill statistically as he ranks 3rd in SG:Around the Green which stems from his 12th rank in Scrambling and 20th rank in Sand Saves. He is also elite when looking at Par 4 and 5 Scoring and ranks 22nd in Bogey Avoidance. He picked up a Top 20 in his first made cut at the Open last year and I believe that a Top 20 is his floor this week with the ability to contend for the win.

 

Also Consider - Marc Leishman

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Emiliano Grillo
Vegas Odds - 200/1
Draftkings - $6,400

I have been on Grillo all season and love him again this week with a mid $6K price tag. He is tremendous off the tee as he ranks #1 in Total Driving in 2016 with a slightly below average driving distance of 293 yards but close to a 70% driving accuracy. He is also accurate on the approach ranking 33rd in GIR and Top 50 in all Proximity distance I am looking at. The one thing that scares me a little is his play around the green. He isn't a great scrambler(ranked 174) or sand player(160th) so it will be key to hit greens and stay out of trouble. If he does this a Top 20 is not out of the question in his maiden voyage to the OPEN championship.

 

Colt Knost
Vegas Odds - 300/1
Draftkings - $5,900

He was a late edition to the field which could keep his ownership way down this week. He is another golfer like Grillo making his first trip to an OPEN championship but that does not scare me away at all. I love the skill set Knost brings to the table. He is far from a distance guy(ranked 197 in driv dist) but you don't need incredible length to succeed in an OPEN. Ask Zach Johnson about length. Knoist is extremely accurate(ranked #1 in driv acc) off the tee and in his approaches(ranked 12th in Proximity). He avoids Bogey's(7th in Bog Avoid) and is a terrific Scrambler(ranked 12th). He is currently enjoying his best season on Tour in his 6th full season and has only missed one cut in 20 tournaments with three Top 10's and eight Top 25 finishes.

 

Also Consider - Steve Stricker

 

The Open Championship Update Thread

 

Smile! Thanks Rory for visiting the Autograph Zone today at #TheOpen#KidsGoFree pic.twitter.com/Wxj1cDo60F

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 12, 2016

Thousands of people work together to make #TheOpen golf's most prestigious Championship.
Meet the Marshals.https://t.co/sohqlCyJ2C

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 12, 2016

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for The Open Championship? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.