Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 7/10/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article, but let's think about some guys who might be a little further off the radar.

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Pitching Targets

First things first, there's someone I want to touch on briefly. One Junior Guerra.
What to make of Junior Guerra? He's fourth among DraftKings pitchers going today in terms of fantasy points per game, and he's sporting a sub 3 ERA. He's getting a lot of buzz as a just-called-up pitcher that's posting reasonable results. Well, please allow me to throw cold water all over this thing. First of all, the reason you haven't heard of Junior Guerra isn't that he's a prospect. He's a 31 years old. He's also incredibly injury prone - the 99 innings he's pitched across AAA and the majors this year are the most of his career. And that 2.93 ERA, while shiny, is a full run better than his 4+ xFIP. Throw in a terrible match-up with the Cards, and this is a clear stay-away. And, yes, cut to me right before line-up lock talking myself into Guerra for my second pitcher slot on DraftKings or something given how bad pitching is today.

James Shields FD 7900 DK 6100
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @CHW
FD - 32.11 DK - 21.07
But here's a real candidate for my 2nd pitcher slot today. What's left of Big Game James has had 2 non-awful starts in a row, and ought to be poised for a third non-awful start against the Braves today! The Braves have been the very best match-up for opposing right handers this season, pairing the very worst wOBA in the league with the by-far-worst .113 ISO. Let's call a spade a spade with Shields - he's been one of the worst pitchers in the majors this season, and I'm as likely to stack bats against him as I am to start him on any given day. But the Braves are so bad, and pitching is so rough today, that he's a strong consideration for me today. I'll pass on FanDuel, of course.

John Lackey FD 9100 DK 10200
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @PIT
FD - 33.91 DK - 22.31
And now we'll pivot for a second and talk about a guy I'd consider for big tournaments on FanDuel. Lackey's had a few rough starts in the last couple weeks, but he's still an above-average pitcher in terms of both xFIP and ERA, and has struck out better than a batter (say that 5 times fast) per inning this season. Even with last start's disaster, Lackey still struck out 44 and walked just 17 in 42 innings. The Cubs are reasonably heavy favorites here (-156 as of this writing), that line buoyed by Pirates throwing Jon Niese out there. The Pirates themselves are essentially a league average match-up, and I don't think I'll try Lackey in cash games, but the upside here is real considering there are no slam dunk studs today.

Carlos Carrasco FD 10300 DK 11600
Opponent - NYY (Tanaka) Park - @CLE
FD - 34.63 DK - 22.72
When I first looked at Carrasco's projection, I phone Doug to ask him if he thought it was wrong. This is a pretty solid price, and given the dearth of good pitching today, I figured he'd be a solid cash game target. And he still might be - I haven't made my mind up fully here. Let's start with the case for him. His 3.28 xFIP is nearly identical to his career 3.27 figure, and he's outperforming his xFIP in terms of his actual output this year. The Ks are down a bit, and the walks are up a bit, and he's not the top 7 MLB pitcher he was, but he's still just short of a true ace. And we're not paying true ace prices, here. The Yankees, meanwhile, have been far from world beaters against RHP - they've got the 8th worst wOBA against righties, and that doesn't even account for their favorable home park. Cleveland's park is a much tougher place to hit. So why isn't he a slam dunk? Well, Tanaka's a reasonable place to start - Carrasco is less a favorite than he'd normally be here. The other sneaky thing about the Yankees is that they're super tough to strike out. They've got the 5th lowest strike out rate against RHP in spite of their general futility. Is this a solid spot for Carrasco? Sure. But it's not a slam dunk.

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