Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/10/16

 
Happy Sunday, dear friends! Today's a little bittersweet. On one hand, the All-star Break means we at DFSR headquarters get to spend a little bit of time with our families without having to check in to the site very often. A forced vacation, in some ways. On the other hand - you guys!! - we're going to miss you! It's been a fantastic first half of the baseball season, in terms of both how the projection system and lineup optimizer have done, and also from a community building perspective. We've loved the increase in comments, which led to us building out the new chat room, and the community of folks that have landed here as a result. Okay, enough sap - let's do one more set of baseball picks before we dive in to a week where people try and make the All-Star week festivities interesting.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with MLB Optimal Lineups, Projections and Player Cards. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL as well! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!

PITCHER

Kenta Maeda FD 9100 DK 9100
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @LAD
FD - 38.09 DK - 24.87
If Friday was the day to end all great pitching days, Sunday is the day to break all pitching days. There's hardly a good pitcher going today, and it seems like every guy I've considered comes with a huge asterisk. I was tempted to go Carlos Carrasco, for instance - but do I really want to take a pitcher going against a team that strikes out the 5th least against RHP in the league? That leaves us with Maeda reluctantly leading our list. Maeda himself has been solid this season - He's striking out 8.75 guys per nine innings, and his 3.03 ERA is respectable. He also walks a fair number of guys, and doesn't generate ground balls well at all. That out of the way, this is a terrific day to grab him. The Padres pair the league's 4th highest K rate vs. RHP with the 2nd worst wOBA. The Dodgers are -200 favorites as well, meaning Maeda should be more likely than usual to sneak a win here. All in all, this looks like the safest way to go today.

David Price FD 10200 DK 10000
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @BOS
FD - 40.57 DK - 26.78
Are you gulping? I'm gulping a little bit. I'm also realizing it's very awkward to type ot the word "gulping," and that this might be my first ever 3 times typing it. So let's start out by saying it feels kinda bad and weird to play a guy in a game with a 9.5 over/under, and in a hitter's park. It feels even worse when you take into consideration that the Rays have posted the 5th highest wOBA against left handed pitching this season, and that doesn't even adjust for their lousy home hitter's park. And, hey, we're paying $10k+ for a guy with a 4.5 ERA. Why am I writing him up again? Oh, right. First of all, Price has had bad luck like you read about this season - his 3.23 xFIP is nearly identical to last year's 3.24 number, and his 10.06 K/9 is the highest of his career. The Rays have also struck out a ton against LHP in spite of their high wOBA - their 24% K rate is the 3rd highest in the majors. Now I don't know that you can call this one safe - Price has given up 12 runs in 9.1 innings vs. the Rays this season - but given his high Ks, the Rays' high Ks, and a solid -220 money line in Price's favor, it might be your best bet on a pitching poor day.

Also considered: Carlos Carrasco.

CATCHER

Willson Contreras FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.26
There's not a ton to break down here that you don't likely know already, and Contreras will likely be a chalk play today. We covered this on Friday's podcast, but Contreras has been quite a bit better against LHP during his brief MLB stint, but in all the ways that looks sustainable. He's struck out just 12.5% of the time against southpaws, and just seems to see the better coming from the left side of the mound. Niese, meanwhile, has descended further into being a hot mess this season. The walks are up, the homers are through the roof, and his 4.35 xFIP is the worst he's posted since his 3 start stint in 2008. I love Contreras in any format.

Evan Gattis FD 2800 DK 3200
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.48 DK - 7.93
The next day I pick Evan Gattis on the right day will be the first, but I'd be silly not to put him forward as one of the chief upside plays at catcher today. With 24 homers in 482 career plate appearances vs. left handed pitching, Gattis provides pop that you normally don't see from the catcher position, and especially not at these prices. The catch is his consistency, of course - his .280 OBP is an embarrassment, and he's as likely to post a goose egg as hit a homer. But if there were ever a match-up to hit a homer, this would be it. Manaea gives up a lot of hard contact, and his 38% GB rate means a lot of that hard contact goes skyward. Wouldn't be shocked if Gattis put up the highest total at catcher today at all.

Also considered: JT Realmuto.

FIRST BASE

David Ortiz FD 4500 DK 5500
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @BOS
FD - 15.48 DK - 11.65
With the amount of bad pitching going today, first base is pretty ridiculous. You know the case for the ageless Ortiz by now, so let's talk Odorizzi. On the surface, his 8.49 K/9 and 2.98 BB/9 doesn't strike the profile of someone with a 4.34 ERA. Then you see the homers. Odorizzi's 34.6% career ground ball rate might cut it to some degree in his friendly home park, but pitching in Fenway is a different story. He's very prone to mistakes up in the zone, and Papi is not the guy you want to face when that's your Achilles heel. I'd also consider Han-Ram here, to be honest.

Chris Davis FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - LAA (Lincecum) Park - @BAL
FD - 15.47 DK - 11.55
If you decide to stray from the Beantown sluggers, consider the man with the same name as my real life brother - Chris Davis. The Orioles' first baseman is essentially the Evan Gattis of the cold corner - his 15 homers in 255 PA against RHP this season are beyond elite, but the 34% K rate means you're famining as often as you're feasting. Lincecum, meanwhile, is completing his career arc as that kid from Rookie of the Year - only this is the part of the movie where his arm turns back into a normal kid's arm and he's just hoping he can survive and retire. The walks were always sort of an issue, but now that he's a 4+ BB/9 walk guy, the reduced swing and miss stuff just means he's pitching scared (and bad). All the O's are in play for me today.

Also considered: Getting Miggy with Miguel Cabrera.

SECOND BASE

Dustin Pedroia FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.94
Kinda boring to just select all the Red Sox, but this is an absurdly reasonable (self-edit note - that was a stupid oxymoron) price on Pedroia. We're pretty well priced out of the Coors game, and after that, the Red Sox have the 2nd highest implied run total on the day. And you can get their #2 hitter (who is close to platoon neutral), at home, for $3k on FD? Stupid. Pedroia is easily the safest 2B of the day.

Rougned Odor FD 2800 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.73 DK - 9.5
First things first - this is a FanDuel only play. But Odor is a sneaky play today for a couple of reasons. It's easy to look at a young player with a free-swinging approach and assume he's going to be a heavy platoon guy, but early returns on Odor have that not really being the case. He's been just .013 OPS points worse against southpaws for his career, and has flashed plenty of power against them. He's tied for 2nd in the majors with 16 homers out of the 2nd base position, and like most Rangers, has been better at home. He also has the decided benefit of facing one of the league's worst lefties in Tommy Milone, who has made a career out of throwing slow, watching his outfielders race toward the wall, and shrugging his shoulders. Big upside here.

Jonathan Schoop FD 3100 DK 5000
Opponent - LAA (Lincecum) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.72
I wanna Schoop, baby. Schoop is basically a lesser known Rougned Odor, with the major drawback that he bats lower in the order. Unlike Odor, though, he's dramatically a reverse platoon guy. He's posted a .878 OPS against right handers this season, and his .215 ISO against them means a big day is always in play. And again, Lincecum is simply awful at the this point in his career. Schoop is an interesting way to go off board a bit for a guy who could put up the biggest point total on the day. I'd definitely not play him for more money than Pedroia and Odor, though.

Keep an eye on: Greg Garcia - even though he inexplicably qualifies at 2B on FD and SS/3B on DK. If he's drawing reps in the lead-off slot again, he's a no brainer at the minimum price and his advanced approach at the plate.

SHORTSTOP

Carlos Correa FD 3000 DK 4800
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.6
If you'd just as soon not play all guys from the Rangers, Orioles, and Red Sox, boy do I have the guy for you! Correa's actually posted a better OPS against right handers for his career, but I'm not prepared to call him a reverse platoon guy at all. His 43 Ks against 29 BBs in 233 PA against LHP speak to a guy with a plenty advanced approach, and unlike some other guys in the picks today, I believe he'll settle in as a normal platoon guy when it's all said and done. And what better day to boost his numbers against LHP than against Sean Manaea? I was overly harsh with Manaea in Gattis' write-up. He does have swing and miss stuff, but he also makes plenty of mistakes - and this price on Correa is just too good to pass up given the other options.

Huge Gap

And then a bunch of guys. I absolutely love Greg Garcia if he gets the lead-off spot again, but after that, I'm feeling very underwhelmed. The only thing I can really picture doing here besides going with Correa or Garcia is paying up for Trevor Story for upside, or grabbing some other cheap bum-level guy who winds up batting 1st or 2nd while his team cruises into the All-Star break. Let's circle back around near line-up lock and see if anything clicks.

THIRD BASE

Adrian Beltre FD 3600 DK 4000
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.61 DK - 10.43
No one will blame you if you think you know which teams are going to headline the stacks article today! Beltre is back to his domination of left handed pitching this season - posting a fantastic .941 OPS against LHP while striking out just 8 times in 88 plate appearances. And that includes lefties all different ability levels, so it stands to reason that he'll be even better than that against one of the very worst left handed starters in the league.

Manny Machado FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - LAA (Lincecum) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.83 DK - 11.64
I can only assume the Orioles were super excited to draft Machado because they just like to stuff their line-up with platoon neutral or reverse platoon guys. Machado has actually been a tick better against LHP this season, but his .961 OPS against righties is elite for any position. I've already gone on and on about poor Tim Lincecum, so I'll spare the grizzly details there this time around and just say I'd be thrilled with Machado in any format.

Also considered: Kris Bryant against Niese, though in the same price range, I prefer the above guys.

OUTFIELD

Giancarlo Stanton FD 3800 DK 5000
Opponent - CIN (Reed) Park - @MIA
FD - 14.82 DK - 11.18
Hey, it feels good to include the big man in the picks without my hands shaking again. After dropping 4 home runs in 2 games last week, it's likely safe to say that we're looking at a healthy (or healthy enough) Stanton at this point. His price (on FD in particular) still reflects the struggling Stanton of yesteryear, and I'm a buyer at these prices until new information comes about. Especially in match-ups like these. Cody Reed's future is still uncertain, and he's got some talent, but giving up 20 runs in your first 20 MLB innings isn't the best start. Love Stanton here, in any format.

Adam Eaton FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.55 DK - 9.55
You want unexciting but solid cash game plays? Bang! I imagine Eaton will be in a lot of optimal lineups today, and I'll be making a slightly sour face while submitting him. It's not his fault - he's a classic "just enough power, just enough speed, just enough OBP" guy. There are a lot of ways he can pay off, and occasionally you'll get a monster like his homer/steal game from Friday. He's .050 OPS points better against RHP for his career, and does have the benefit of being up against a less than MLB quality righty in Foltynewicz, whose lack of swing and miss stuff and tendency to leave balls up puts him in disaster start risk on a daily basis.

Adam Jones FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - LAA (Lincecum) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.01 DK - 10.1
Hyun-soo Kim FD 3300 DK 0
Opponent - LAA (Lincecum) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.1 DK - 10.35
Mark Trumbo FD 3400 DK 5300
Opponent - LAA (Lincecum) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.72
No surprise here, I hope. The same thing I wrote about all the other Orioles holds true, and no one will kill you if you just throw a dart and just grab anyone who runs around in the Orioles' outfield today. Jones is the safest of this group, and I like Trumbo best for upside, but I'd be happy with any of them.

So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!

GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY MLB!

And Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!