Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/8/16

Welcome back to another night of daily fantasy baseball with DFSR. Friday is an interesting slate in that FanDuel has decided to add NL only and AL only slate to their list of available games which is intriguing and frustrating at the same time. I feel for the DFSR team who works endlessly behind the scenes to make the projections and optimizer tick. Good luck fellas. I am thinking of ya!

If you are sick of the painful decisions you have had to make at the pitching spot the last two days you are not alone. Thankfully we have a fantastic slew of options tonight starting with Chris Sale and Jose Fernandez who are both pitching at home. If you are planning to fit a Coors stack in tonight it will be tough to fit one of these guys in your lineups. Let's dive in!

 

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PITCHER

Chris Sale FD 11000 DK 13500
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @CHW
FD - 43.49 DK - 28.4

Sale hasn't been perfect lately but has been getting some nice results. Since June 10th he has won five straight starts striking out 40 batters while walking just six. The ERA is a bit inflated at 3.86 during that five game span as he has given up seven home runs but promising is the xFIP of 2.96. He now gets an elite mathcup vs. the Braves who rank 29th in wOBA(.273) ad wRC+(67) vs. left handed batters and are striking out 21% of the time. The Braves are also the only team in the majors who yet to score 300 runs. Roll with Sale and feel confident in any format on Friday.

 

Jose Fernandez FD 11700 DK 13400
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @MIA
FD - 46.4 DK - 30.31

If it strikeout upside you're after you better find a spot for Fernandez on Friday night. Dud leads the league with a 13.1 K/9 which is over 1.5 strikeouts per nine more than Scherzer in second. WOW. He is in a great spot on Friday night to add to his impressive numbers in a matchup vs. the Reds who rank 27th in wOBA(.297) and 29th in wRC+(70) vs. right handed pitching while striking out 22.3% of the time. Fernandez has also been very impressive at home with a 1.72 ERA while limiting opponents to a .22 wOBA. I don't think you can go wrong with either of the top options.

 

Michael Wacha FD 7500 DK 8100
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 32.93 DK - 21.65

If you are looking to stack Coors tonight you are going to need a cheap value option at pitcher. Wacha fits the bill in the mid $7K-$8K range and is coming into this game with some momentum winning three straight starts for the Cardinals. The ERA is still disappointing at 4.38 with a xFIP not much better at 4.08 but he has the K upside and win potential to rack up some points tonight. The Cardinals are early road favorites heading to Milwaukee to face the Brewers who are striking out 26% of the time vs. right handed pitching.

*I am not going to touch on the Phillies or Rockies in the picks below as Coors is a quite obvious target. Instead I will take a look at some other options if you are looking to go another way on Friday. I will try and list as many value plays as possible as their are two stud pitchers on the mound*

CATCHER

Russell Martin FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.32

Martin has been consistent over the last week or so with hits in six of his last eight games and has added 9 RBI. He is still striking out over 30% of the time but is also walking over 12% in that eight game time frame for an impressive .406 OBP. As long as he keeps that up he will get tons of run scoring opportunities hitting out of the five hole in the Jays powerful lineup.

 

James McCann FD 2000 DK 2700
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.08 DK - 6.39

If you are possibly trying to fit a top pitching option plus a big stack in your lineup tonight I suggest punting the catcher position. You can get James McCann at near minimum pricing on both sites in a matchup vs. southpaw J.A. Happ and Blue Jays. McCann is hitting a clean 100 points better vs. left handed pitching this season and is a career .294 hitter vs. southpaws. He doesn't hit in a great spot in the order but it's hard to argue with the potential value.

 

FIRST BASE

Jose Abreu FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.79 DK - 9.76

After two brutal days of mediocre pitching options I am paying up for one or both of the top options in almost all my lineups. This will result in many value plays littered throughout my lineup. The first base position presents many value options that could be very low owned as well. I first turn to Jose Abreu who is very affordable on both sites and although he isn't hitting to the .290 + average we have seen the first two seasons the power upside still remains as he has clubbed 11 homers already with 50 RBI and 30 runs scored. He will get a matchup vs. one of the weaker pitchers on the slate in Matt Wisler and his 4.16 ERA and even worse 4.85 xFIP.

Prince Fielder FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.61 DK - 9.56

The Rangers were a complete bust last night vs. Tyler Duffey but we are going back to well here again on Friday. They get an even weaker pitching matchup vs. Kyle Gibson who has struggled to a 2-5 record this season with an unimpressive 4.82 ERA and 4.57 xFIP. His strikeout rate(6.02 K/9) is below average and his walk rate(3.44 BB/9) is awful and he is giving up 13% HR/FB rate on the season. Fielder on the other hand has really heated up after a slow start and is hitting above .300 since mid June with a .405 OBP and 142 wRC+.

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECOND BASE

Jason Kipnis FD 3300 DK 4900
Opponent - NYY (Green) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.56

The average isn't where would would like it but Kipnis has been racking up the fantasy points over the last few weeks. He is hitting just .257 since June 17th but has five doubles, two triples, three homers, and two stolen bases to along with 13 RBI and 10 runs scored. This production has resulted in a nice 117 wRC+and an excellent value play for DFS, especially on FanDuel at only $3,300.

 

Derek Dietrich FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.96

While the projection system favors Kipnis on FanDuel it favors Dietrich over DraftKings at a $1,100 discount. He doesn't possess the power upside of Kipnis but he is much better hitter overall with a .307 average and .401 OBP. He has added four home runs, 28 RBI and 25 runs scored for an impressive 131 wRC+. The Marlins offense has heated up and Dietrich's value is at his highest when is up near the top of the order in front of Giancarlo Stanton. Be sure to check the lineups prior to lineup lock.

 

 

SHORTSTOP

Carlos Correa FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Mengden) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.65

When looking at salary trends the first player that stands out is Correa. On July 1st he was $4,400 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings. Crazy how the mighty have fallen. Although he is currently in a slump, makes a great buy low option and one of the top PTS/$ plays on the day, especially on FanDuel. He provides both speed and power upside hitting cleanup in the Astros lineup and while he has seen a slight dip in the average this season he has gotten more patient at the plate. The 12% walk rate and .360 OBP has resulted in 42 runs scored to go along with his 13 home runs and 52 RBI. He is safe in all formats today.

J.J. Hardy FD 2300 DK 3000
Opponent - LAA (Shoemaker) Park - @BAL
FD - 7.16 DK - 5.61

Hardy makes a viable punt option on a slate where we want to pay up to the top in pitching. He hits in the bottom of the lineup but has started to show some extra base pop since returning from the disable list. He comes into this game with a four game hit streak including two multi hit games, three doubles and four runs bated in. His salary allows you plenty of flexibility but isn't just a dead spot on the roster. Think about it!

 

 

THIRD BASE

Kris Bryant FD 3600 DK 5500
Opponent - PIT (Liriano) Park - @PIT
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.78

Considering the slate has Arenado playing at home in Coors and Bryant is playing on the road in PNC Park he is well over priced on DraftKings. He comes at a nice discount from the top third base options on FanDuel making him a terrific pivot off Coors tonight.  If yo thought we had seen it all from this kid last year you were wrong. He has already recorded 25 home runs, 64 RBI and 68 runs scored in just 82 games which is close to his full season numbers last year. Incredible. He will get a great matchup vs. lefty Francisco Liriano who has a complete lack of control this season walking over 5.5 batters per nine innings. It has lead him to give up three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts.

Adrian Beltre FD 3500 DK 3700
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.39

Stacking the Rangers on Friday night could turn out to be a very profitable play on Friday. Recency bias suggests most people will be off of them as they let everyone down last night as the Twins crushed them 10-1. They will get another shot vs. a weaker Twins starter in Kyle Gibson. I mentioned just how bad he was in the Fielder write up so I spend any more time on Gibson. Beltre's best value is over at DraftKings where he is close to $2K cheaper than Bryant. He isn't the Beltre of old but we aren't paying for that. He is still hitting .280 this season with 12 home runs and 53 RBI. Pair him with Fielder for a low owned, high upside play in GPP's tonight.

 

OUTFIELD

George Springer FD 3100 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Mengden) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.96

I absolutely love the prices on the Astros today. Altuve is always expensive and worth paying up for but the value is amazing right now with Correa and Springer. Both are hitting in the .265 range and come with a nice combination of power and speed which is terrific for fantasy. Springer has been hitting leadoff but has shown more power upside with 19 home runs on the season with 51 RBI and 61 runs scored for a superb 126 wRC+. If you are leaning on fading Coors tonight(It has to bust one night right??) the Astros are a great pivot that could come with low ownership despite the value prices.

 

Adam Eaton FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.31 DK - 9.35

Eaton makes a great cash game play hitting at the top of the White Sox order with his impressive .357 OBP and speed upside. He isn't going to provide monster numbers by any means can be a consistent option in a lineup where you are paying up for elite pitching. As I mentioned with Abreu the White Sox get a matchup vs. one of the worst pitchers on the slate making a great opportunity to get them in your lineup cheap and possibly low owned.
Josh Reddick FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.31 DK - 8.11

Reddick is another player in the outfield that will come in very low owned on Friday due to his recent slump since returning from the disabled list. Despite picking up just six hits in his last nine games, Reddick is still hitting over .300 for the season with a 119 wRC+. He has also crushed right handed pitching to the tune of a .402 wOBA and 174 wRC+ and gets a matchup vs. Colin McHugh who has struggled with his control lately walking seven batters in his last two starts . The matchup isn't elite but the price and low ownership are right where we want them for GPP's on Friday night.

 

 

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