Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 90 - 7/7/16

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International Fight Week is Here! Three cards in three days from Las Vegas, buckle up fight fans! This post will cover the first event, UFC Fight Night 90 - make sure to check back the rest of the week for coverage on the TUF 23 Finale and the BIG ONE: UFC 200. Right off the bat. Fight Night 90 gives us a title showdown as Rafael dos Anjos defends the lightweight strap against Eddie Alvarez. I definitely like RDA but there are better value plays on the card, let's dig in.

***As we continue to improve our offering at DFSR, the cheat sheet and recaps below have been updated to include the Vegas Finish Prop and strikes landed per minute.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)

Joseph Duffy ($11,100)

Vegas Line: -410
Finish Prop: -105
Career Record: 14-2
UFC Record: 2-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.02
Finishes: 4 KO / 9 Subs / 12 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision - Dustin Poirier

Sometimes it's best not to overthink things. Joseph Duffy is the highest priced fighter and biggest favorite on the card for a reason. Least of which is his opponent, Mitch Clarke returns to the Octagon after a year away from the UFC. From a fantasy perspective, Duffy is a finisher with 13 of his 14 wins coming without the judges, including 12 first-round victories. Duffy has the third highest finish prop on the card at -105 and should be a safe bet to score plenty of points. Roster him everywhere in cash games but you may need some more diversity when building GPP lineups.

MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)

Alan Jouban ($10,000)

Vegas Line: -140
Finish Prop: +185
Career Record: 13-4
UFC Record: 4-2
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.16
Finishes: 9 KO / 1 Sub / 7 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round TKO - Brendan O'Reilly

There are plenty of signs that point to Alan Jouban as a strong play, but we'll start with his opponent. Jouban squares-off with Belal Muhammad who despite being undefeated is making his UFC debut on short-notice. Jouban is an active fighter with a healthy strike rate, so he'll score even without a finish. But Jouban does finish, securing three of his four UFC wins in the first-round. Putting everything together with a reasonable price tag of $10,000 and what I expect to be relatively low ownership, I'll have heavy exposure to Jouban in all formats.

UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)

Dileno Lopes ($8,700)

Vegas Line: +210
Finish Prop: +510
Career Record: 18-2
UFC Record: 0-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.07
Finishes: 4 KO / 12 Subs / 12 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision - Reginaldo Vieira

Dileno Lopes was admittedly bad last time out, but that happens to plenty of fighters in their UFC debut. The BJJ specialist does have 12 career submissions and a total of 12 first-round finishes. Lopes also takes on Anthony Birchak, a high volume fighter who should keep the pace up if the bout doesn't go to the ground. Birchak has also proven he can be submitted - tapping out twice in three career losses. Lopes has the raw talent and an extremely low salary with lots of upside, making him a key piece if you want to roster higher priced talent.

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for UFC Fight Night 90? Shaun is selling lineups for only $5 for DraftKings Cash Games & Tournaments. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the UFC Fight Night 90? Shaun is selling lineups for only $5. He covers DraftKings Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.