St. Louis Cardinals' Matt Carpenter hits a solo home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Sunday, April 17, 2016, in St. Louis. The Cardinals won 4-3. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other stacking targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our daily MLB podcast but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.
Quick note: We covered a bunch of Red Sox in our main picks article. I know they've been rough of late, but think they should be the chalk-y cash game stack today. Their prices are trending cheaper and they have the highest run expectation on the board. And if you think people stay away because their recent performance has left a lot to be desired then even better.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Matt Garza (Brewers)
Park - Busch Stadium
Friday is a day of good and above average pitchers which means the decisions for stacking might be a little closer than usual. Matt Garza is not one of the aforementioned guys. The 2.81 ERA might jump off the page for you, but the reality is much worse. His 4.97 xFIP tells the real story and his peripherals look like garbage. He’s striking out only 4.5 per nine and getting pretty lucky with an 80% LOB %. When that comes down look for the ERA to climb. The Cardinals have some interesting bats to consider here with Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams leading the charge near the top of the order. Both are significantly better against righty pitching. Those are the lefty bats but I’d be willing to consider guys like Matt Holliday in the reverse split.
Houston Astros vs. Miguel Gonzalez (White Sox)
Park - Minute Maid Park
The other issue with Friday’s slate (and really the weekend in general) is many of the games are going in pitcher’s parks. Minute Maid park is one of the few hitters’ parks and it plays up power to all sides. The Astros are a righty-heavy lineup though I don’t see that as much of an issue against Gonzalez who owns a 4.87 xFIP and about average K rate. For their handedness, plenty of Astros do well in this split. Carlos Correa has a .866 wOBA over the last couple of seasons. George Springer and Jose Altuve are both well above average in this platoon and Luis Valbuena could be a cheaper option if hitting near the top of the order.
Keep an eye out for the Colorado Rockies today. They're prices are really low based somewhat (I think) on Kershaw having been expected to pitch. But with Bud Norris going that's not the case. Trevor Story is free on FD while Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon are totally reasonable.
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View Comments
With the prices in the basement, how do you not stack the big bats for the Rockies? Agreed to go cheap on the pitching. You can roster Arenado, Story, CarGo and Blackmon for only $1,000 more than Cueto alone. Even though it's in Dodger Stadium, I've gotta roll with that stack.
Projected run lines would start to suggest otherwise
#1 The Rockies aren't a very good offense outside of Coors Field. #2 Bud Norris, since becoming a starter, is striking out almost 10 per 9 innings and has only given up 1.5 earned runs per game. #3 Dodger Stadium is DEAD LAST in runs scored per game. #4 It's a really, really contrarian play to stack them and everything points to you losing whatever you have in play. Maybe one entry in a large $3 tourney, but I wouldn't count on finishing in the money.
Lets visit James' comment tomorrow and just see how it all works out. I'm curious
By the way, I'm not saying one or two Rockies couldn't have decent games, but a full 5 man stack is where I think the odds are heavily stacked against you from every angle.
How's that Rockies stack working for you?
James Almagno - I see Bud Norris rained on your parade...or should I say thunder-stormed? Now if only someone had warned you....