Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/30/16

 

Welcome to Thursday baseball! We have a nice 11 game all day slate on our hands with a few aces and a few offenses in good spots. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on some tournament stacks, pitching options and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into our top options at each position.

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PITCHER

Gio Gonzalez FD 8500 DK 7400
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @WSH
FD - 34.73 DK - 21.25

Starting us off at the pitcher position, we have Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals who will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are a team that has struggled mightily against left handers with a .306 wOBA and 86 wRC+. Gio Gonzalez on the other hand, has been very unlucky. While you may look at the 4.73 ERA and write him off, I will point out the 3.83 SIERA and .324 BABIP. With the average BABIP sitting around .290 for his career, you can expect all of his numbers to improve as the year goes on. With the Reds moving from a hitters park to a hitters park, there hitters will be far less effective. Gio Gonzalez is a great play in all formats.

Kenta Maeda FD 9500 DK 9500
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 32.35 DK - 21.34

If you want to move off of Gonzalez onto a guy that is a bit more safe, you can take a look at Kenta Maeda. While he has yet to top 50 in his 5 last games, he has been over 40 in 4 of the 5 last games. With that type of consistency, Maeda is going to be a guy that is a cash game play in almost any match up, let alone the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have hit righties to the tune of a .315 wOBA, which ranks right in the middle of the pack, however, they have a very high team BABIP which suggests there is an element of luck going on. While I am not a big fan of this game being in Miller Park, I think Maeda is still a very strong cash game. Make sure to check out our pitcher specific article as I will touch on a few other guys that make for interesting options.

CATCHER

Brian McCann FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.48 DK - 7.87

Brian McCann was the chalk yesterday and he paid off huge with 2 home runs to the short porch in right field. While I am not expecting another double-homer night, I think we can expect a pretty productive game. With A.J. Griffin making his second appearance since coming back, he is still going to be a little rusty and will almost certainly be on a pitch count. I think he gets forced out of the game early and the Yankees end up having a big day at the plate. The Yanks have been very cold lately and with the big comeback in the 9th, I could definitely see them getting things going. While McCann is always a good tournament play, I think he is viable in all formats today.

Wilson Ramos FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.77

The Washington Nationals are going to be taking on the southpaw in Brandon Finnegan and it is going to be a very interesting match up to watch play out. While 95% of left handed pitchers are better against lefties, Finnegan is the exact opposite, but he is not good against either. Therefore, we are going to have to decide whether we want to attack him with lefties or righties. We will be looking at a righty here, however, I think the whole lineup is in play. Ramos has been sitting under the radar this season, although he has a .386 combined wOBA dating back to opening day. If Ramos is in the lineup in a decent lineup spot, he is one of the top options at catcher.

 

FIRST BASE

Jose Abreu FD 4100 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.66 DK - 9.67

Moving on to 1st base, we have a position that is very deep, as always. My favorite of the bunch is going to be Jose Abreu who will be taking on the left hander Tommy Milone. While Milone was once regarded as a big prospect, those days are long gone. Milone has exhibited a .348 wOBA to right handers that is backed up by a 4.25 xFIP and a horrible 39.1% hard contact rate. Jose Abreu, however, has been dominant since entering the league with a .362 wOBA against lefties. With this game being played in a hitters park, the entire White Sox lineup is in play and the beating heart is almost a must play on the early slate.

Byung-ho Park FD 2700 DK 2800
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.28 DK - 7.88

Looking at the other side of that game, we have Byung ho Park. Park and the Twins are going to be taking on a lefty as well, however, this southpaw is actually a pretty good pitcher as evidenced by his 3.48 xFIP and 24.1% hard contact rate to lefties. That being said, he does have some flaws. Dating back to 2015, Rodon has sported a 1.45 HR/9 and a 14.4% HR/FB rate, which basically means he is giving up a ton of deep fly balls. While that may not be a problem in a park like Kauffman or Petco, it is a huge problem in U.S. Cellular. Park has showed his power this year with a 40% hard contact rate that is backed up by impeccable batted ball stats.

Matt Adams FD 3700 DK 4200
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @STL
FD - 12.42 DK - 9.59

If you are just playing the main slate, we are going to take a look at Matt Adams. Adams and the Cards will be facing Chris Young, who is arguably the worst pitcher in the league that gets starts consistently. While the Cardinals disappointed last night, I am expecting them to come out firing in this one. In 2016, Young has sported a .521 wOBA against lefties and while that may not be sustainable, his peripherals suggest it is actually not too far off. Matt Adams on the other hand, has mashed righties this year with a .379 wOBA. If Adams is in the top half of the order, you can target him with confidence in all formats.

 

SECOND BASE

Robinson Cano FD 4100 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.85

The Seattle Mariners have hit righties extremely well this season and the main catalyst for that has been Robinson Cano. Cano has been absolutely stupid against righties this year with a .434 wOBA that is somehow backed up by a 39.5% hard contact rate and a 22.2% line drive rate. We will touch later on Chris Tillman, but for now just know that he is a a below average pitcher that struggles against the long ball. While I definitely wish this game was being played somewhere else, we are not relying on home runs for production from Cano. He is a very good target in all formats, on both sites.

Matt Carpenter FD 4600 DK 5500
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @STL
FD - 12.66 DK - 9.78

If you want to pay up and be way contrarian, you can take a peek at Matt Carpenter. As I just mentioned, the Cardinals are in a spectacular spot today and the 2 sites have definitely taken notice as shown by these crazy Cardinals prices. Carpenter has been a great hitter against righties dating back over 3 years with a .386 wOBA. If you want to look at a negative for the Cardinals, it is definitely the Royals bullpen. If Young is able to keep the game somewhat close, the dominant bullpen will enter around the 6th inning and it will be rough sails from there on out. That being said, don't let a bullpen steer you away from a team that is facing Chris Young.

 

SHORTSTOP

Tim Anderson FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.33 DK - 9.15

Shortstop is absolutely pathetic today, especially in the late/main slate. In the early slate, we can feel very comfortable with Timothy Anderson. He has entered the majors on fire with great numbers and production, backed up by solid peripherals. As I mentioned when talking about Abreu, Tommy Milone is definitely a guy that should be targeted in both cash games and tournaments. While Anderson is far from a power hitter, he has shown some pop and you never know what can happen in a very hitter friendly ballpark. Anderson is the top option in all formats on the early slate and all day slate, even though his price has spiked.

Brandon Crawford FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Overton) Park - @OAK
FD - 8.29 DK - 6.5

I told you it is a very ugly position. Due to the scarcity and lack of upside, i went with a guy that has inherent upside due to his raw power. While this is a left-lefty match up, Crawford has actually been decent against lefties dating back to 2014 with a .305 wOBA. They will be facing off with Dillon Overton, a left hander that does not have numbers to base anything off of. The numbers we do have however, suggest he profiles as a bullpen arm that can make spot starts now and again. While I am not going to say roster Crawford with confidence, I am going to say good luck at shortstop.

 

THIRD BASE

Todd Frazier FD 4100 DK 4200
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.54

Moving on to a much better position, we have third base. Once again, we are going to pick on Tommy Milone and his utter pathetic numbers against righties. Todd Frazier has been more of a power hitter this year and while that can be bad for the team, it is great for us as he is swing for the fences every pitch. The difference today? the difference is that he has a pretty good chance of succeeding. On the early slate, I would advise not getting cute and just rolling with Frazier at third. If you want to get cute, you can look at Plouffe or Turner.

Adonis Garcia FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.35 DK - 6.66

I know I said third base is a lot better than shortstop, but eh. I guess I was looking at the early guys. I'm likely going to spread my ownership around as there is really nobody that sticks out like a sore thumb at the position. In cash games, however, I may look at Adonis Garcia, especially on FanDuel where he is only $2600. Garcia is really the only good hitter against lefties on this team as he has sported a .322 wOBA that is backed up by a 32% hard contact rate, which is above average. If you are looking for someone a bit safer and are willing to pay up I think Anthony Rendon is viable against Brandon Finnegan.

 

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper FD 4200 DK 4900
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.28 DK - 10.21

Speaking of the Nationals, here we have my favorite outfielder on the day, Bryce Harper. Harper hits righties legendarily, sure. However, he hits lefties pretty well too. In 2016, Harper has hit lefties to the tune of a .345 wOBA and a 39.7% pull rate. As I mentioned earlier, Finnegan is a reverse splits pitcher which means he is actually worse against left handers. While I wish this game was in a better park, Harper has the raw power to get it out anywhere, in a any part of the field.

Brett Gardner FD 3900 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.77
Jacoby Ellsbury FD 4100 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.86 DK - 9.46

Taking a look at the early slate really quick in the outfield, we have Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury. Both of these guys ended up with decent scores last night after disappointing for nearly the entire night, as most of the Yankees did. The Yankees and White Sox are the teams you should be targeting in the early slate, and the White Sox do not have any right handed outfielders outside of Melky that really sick out to me for cash games. Yes, Avisail Garcia is a great tournament play. Both Gardner and Ellsbury have unique upside as they bring both power and speed to the table, which is very rare. If you forced me to pick 1, I would go with Ellsbury as he has been running a bit more lately, but I definitely prefer them as a combo.

Seth Smith FD 3000 DK 3100
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.25

Back to the late slate and back to the Seattle Mariners. Seth Smith is a platoon hitter which means he will be in there against the right hander Chris Tillman. I mentioned Tillman and some his flaws earlier, so let's touch on that. Dating back to 2015, Tillman has sported a .332 combined wOBA against left handers that is backed up by a very high HR/FB rate and a line drive rate of 21.6%. Seth Smith on the other hand, has hit righties very well over the last 5 seasons with a wOBA over .350. Smith makes for an excellent play in all formats, on both sites.

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