Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/27/16

 

Welcome to Monday baseball! We have a 10 game main slate on our hands with a few pitchers in good spots and a ton of offenses in prime position to produce. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on some more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!

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PITCHER

Jake Arrieta FD 11900 DK 13700
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 38.65 DK - 20.75

Arrieta is coming in as the clear top pitcher on the slate and it is not very close. In both cash games and tournaments, Arrieta has a much higher ceiling than anyone and has a higher floor than anyone else. While he has slipped up over the last few starts innings-wise, his strikeouts have remained constant and his peripherals haven't moved a bit. With the bullpen being worked hard in Miami, Joe Maddon is going to rely on his ace to get him some quality innings. With an xFIP of 3.13, a .277 wOBA and a 22.6% hard contact rate, Arrieta is obviously one of the best pitchers in the league, if not the 2nd best. He will be taking on a Cincinnati Reds team that has struggled mightily against righties with a .296 wOBA and a .292 OBP. You can feel comfortable with Arrieta in both your cash games and tournaments, however, he is very expensive.

Jeff Samardzija FD 9400 DK 8400
Opponent - OAK (Mengden) Park - @SF
FD - 35.01 DK - 18.98

If you want to pay down a bit from Arrieta, Jeff Samardzija is going to be the guy to target. He is taking on an Oakland Athletics team that has been atrocious against righties as evident by a .296 wOBA and a 29.6% hard contact rate. While Samardzija has over performed just a bit to start the season, his 3.90 xFIP and a 28.7% hard contact rate suggest he is still an elite pitcher. This game will be played in AT&T Park which is one of the absolute best parks in the league for pitchers as evidenced by their league worst HR rating over past 3 seasons for lefties. While I will be doing everything I can to get Arrieta into my cash games, I wouldn't mind settling with Samardzija.

CATCHER

Russell Martin FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.54

The Coors Field game is going to be a very interesting one tonight as the powerful Blue Jays come into the best park in baseball for home runs. The Blue Jays are likely going to be my favorite side of the diamond as they will get a guaranteed 9 innings of hitting and will face a much worse bullpen. While Gray is a good pitcher, Coors Field is a different monster and he will almost certainly struggle in this match up. While Martin is better against southpaws, he has been just fine over the past couple seasons against righties with a .332 wOBA. Martin makes for a strong play in both cash games and tournaments. If you are looking to pay down, let's take a look at a different option.

Yadier Molina FD 2400 DK 2700
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 8.42 DK - 6.66

If you are looking to pay way down off of Russell Martin, Yadier Molina is a great cash game option. While he certainly lacks power, he can still rack up fantasy points as shown by his 15 doubles on the season. Molina has actually been pretty good over the last few seasons against southpaws with a .331 wOBA, surprisingly. That being said, he has nowhere near the same upside as some of the other guys at this position that are priced a bit higher, however, if you are paying up for an ace and want some cheap safety at catcher, Molina is the guy.

 

FIRST BASE

Edwin Encarnacion FD 4800 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 16.41 DK - 12.35

The Toronto Blue Jays are going to be a common theme around the industry today and their top power bat has to be mentioned. Edwin Encarnacion has held a .387 wOBA and an insane 42.6% hard contact rate against righties dating back to 2014. Jon Gray, however, has been solid against righties this season with a .290 wOBA. That being said, gray will likely be out of the game early and the rest of this bullpen is putrid. Encarnacion and his power bat are going to sit at the top of my first base projections tonight.

Anthony Rizzo FD 4300 DK 5300
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 13.61 DK - 10.46

The Cubs had a very tough series against the Marlins (I was there. It was sad.) and are going to look to bounce back against the Reds and their horrible pitching staff. The first guy they will be teeing off against is Dan Straily. Straily is a right hander that has been a below average pitcher for the better part of 5 years and this season has been no different. Against lefties, Straily has exhibited a 5.85 xFIP, which suggests his low wOBA is completely luck. While it goes unsaid, Rizzo is one of the best left handed hitters in the game and absolutely mashes right handed pitching. Rizzo makes for a great play in all formats if you are looking to move off of Encarnacion.

 

SECOND BASE

Ben Zobrist FD 3600 DK 4400
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.99

We are going to look at 2 Cubs batters in a row and at second base it is going to be the switch hitting Ben Zobrist. Zobrist has gone somewhat cold over the last 2 weeks along with the rest of the Cubs, but has hit righties very well this year. Dating back to opening day, he has hit righties to the tune of a .387 wOBA that is backed up by a 35.5% hard contact rate. As I mentioned, Straily is in line for some regression and this match up could be one where both sides regress to the the mean. Make sure to get some exposure to this explosive Cubs offense in the Great American Ballpark.

Logan Forsythe FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @TB
FD - 9.79 DK - 7.81

While I could of easily put LeMahieu or Travis here, I didn't want to pollute the entire article with the Coors Field game. I am taking a very hard look at Logan Forsythe tonight, a guy who has historically mashed lefties and will be taking on a lefty who struggles against right handers. While I would much prefer this game was being played in Fenway Park, Tropicana profiles as a very neutral stadium and Forsythe can rack up points in many different ways. With a combined wOBA of .362 dating back to 2015, Forsythe makes for a great play that will be very low owned.

 

SHORTSTOP

Xander Bogaerts FD 3800 DK 4800
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.78

I am really hoping nobody will be on Xander "X-Man" Bogaerts tonight. He is facing off with a left hander in Blake Snell that has given up a good number of home runs to right handers throughout the minors. While Snell is going to be a very good pitcher in the league, I am willing to target him until he proves his dominance. Xander on the other hand, has obliterated southpaws in 2016 with a current wOBA of .432. WOW. On a similar note as Forsythe, it would be great of this game was being played in Fenway, however, one bonus that comes out of this is that the Red Sox will get a guaranteed 9 innings of hitting, which could very well end up being an extra at-bat for Bogaerts.

Trevor Story FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @COL
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.77

While I am very surprised it took this long to target Marco Estrada, I think the Rockies bats are coming in just little bit lower than the Blue Jays and Cubs bats. That being said, they are on an equal level for me, especially in tournaments. Marco Estrada is regarded by many as a good pitcher and those people are way off. He has struggled mightily against the long ball over the course of his career and that is a very troublesome fact when you are entering the hitters haven that is Coors Field. Good Luck Marco and his truthers.

 

THIRD BASE

Maikel Franco FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.89 DK - 7.65

Sure, you can plug in Donaldson, Bryant or Arenado. They are all tremendous plays, but how are you going to get all of these guys in addition to Jake Arrieta? It's impossible, so let's touch on some guys that will save you a bit of salary while giving you some nice upside. The Phillies will be heading to Chase Field, the second best hitters park in baseball. Franco will be facing off with Robbie Ray, a southpaw that has had trouble against righties as evidenced by the .376 wOBA allowed in 2016. While Franco is a lot more risky than the guys I mentioned above, he has similar upside in this match up + park.

Jhonny Peralta FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 9.59 DK - 7.44

If you are looking for a guy on FanDuel that is way under priced, Jhonny "Silent H" Peralta is my choice for a salary saver. He comes in at the same price as guys like Juan Uribe and Matt Dominguez, who are far worse hitters than Peralta. While he is just coming off of an injury, Peralta has begun his comeback on fire with 2 home runs and 6 doubles in only 2 weeks. As I mentioned, Danny Duffy is a guy who can be targeted with 1 offs as he gives up plenty of hits without the lethal big inning. Let me be clear, if you can find a way to get an elite guy into your lineup, do it. If not, one of these 2 guys could be the recipe to success.

 

OUTFIELD

Carlos Gonzalez FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @COL
FD - 14.23 DK - 10.9
Charlie Blackmon FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @COL
FD - 12.15 DK - 10.46

Our first outfield duo is going to be the Colorado Rockies and the 2 best left handed bats in the lineup. With both CarGo and Blackmon sporting wOBA's over .380 against righties, you can target both of these guys with confidence in all formats. As I mentioned when talking about Story, Estrada has a tendency to give up home runs which will end up being a huge problem in Coors Field. If you mad me choose 1, i would go with Gonzalez, however, I love them as a duo in both cash games and tournaments.

Jason Heyward FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.31 DK - 9.18
Chris Coghlan FD 2300 DK 3000
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 6.99 DK - 5.5

Our second and last outfield duo is going to be from the Chicago Cubs. What more is there to say about this match up with Dan Straily and the putrid Reds bullpen. Coghlan has been recently traded to the Cubs and while he hasn't started on fire, this whole offense has been a bit cold coming into tonight. Coghlan and and Heyward both bring upside in this match up with speed and power which will only be magnified by the Great American "Smallpark" Ballpark. If the Cubs offense goes crazy like I expect, these 2 guys will likely be a huge part of it. As a side note, they will likely see only righties out of the bullpen as the Reds have only 1 lefty in Cingrani in the bullpen and he only sees the mound when the Reds have a lead in the 9th inning.

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