Mets at Orioles 8/19/15
Welcome to another Hump Day edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. Today we have a split slate with seven games in the afternoon and eight in the evening. Both slates have some nice pitching options at the top and mid tier making it an easy choice to pack as much daily fantasy baseball into our Wednesday as possible. Let's dig in!
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Early Slate
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @NYM
FD - 41.65 DK - 23.39
Wednesday afternoon gives us two excellent options at the top of the salary in Syndergaard and Arrieta. Both are at home but Thor edges out the reigning Cy Young winner for a few reasons. First of all, he gets a better matchup as the Royals who rank 15th in team wOBA while the Cardinals(facing Arrieta) rank 2nd. They are priced the same on DraftKings but Syndergaard comes with a $1,200 discount on FanDuel. He is an elite pitcher with a 11.22 K/9 rate and 53% ground ball rate which has helped produce a very low 1.91 ERA. He is safe in all formats.
Evening Slate
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @TEX
FD - 37.83 DK - 19.83
Hamels leads the way on the night slate in a home matchup vs. the Reds who hold the second worst record in the National League and have an ugly -107 run differential. The Reds sit middle of the pack vs. right handed pitching but are striking out 22.7% of the time. Hamels has won two straight starts, pushing his record to 7-1 on the season with 2.88 ERA. His issues this season have been the high walk rate(3.47 BB/9) and the long ball(20.5% HR/FB rate). If he can command the strike zone and limit the fly balls he will have a great shot to pick up win #8 on Wednesday night.
Opponent - SEA (Iwakuma) Park - @DET
FD - 30.26 DK - 15.12
If you are looking to save a few dollars on the late slate to load up some bats Fulmer makes a great choice in GPP's, especially on FanDuel at $8,000. It has been a fantastic start to his career with the Tigers as he has gone 7-2 in 10 starts with an impressive 2.43 ERA and 8.65 K/9 rate. He has three good pitches with a 95 mph fastball, 87 mph slider and 85 mph changeup. As he matures in the major leagues he should find some better command of the strike zone(3.49 BB/9) which will only give him even more upside to go deep into games. He will be tough to trust in cash as the Mariners present a tough matchup ranked 5th in team wOBA vs. right handed pitching.
Early Slate
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @TOR
FD - 11 DK - 8.42
After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Martin has turned it around in June hitting .279 with an impressive 150 wRC+. He has also brought his K rate down to 22% for the month after a 30%+ rate to open the first two months. He has hit lefties a little better for his career and gets a ton of opportunities as he was moved up to the five hole in the Jays order. After losing game one to the D Backs last night look for the Jays bats to wake up on Wednesday afternoon. Martin is a safe option in any format today.
Evening Slate
Opponent - SEA (Iwakuma) Park - @DET
FD - 10.44 DK - 8.04
Martinez should be back in the lineup on Wednesday evening after receiving a maintenance day off on Tuesday. After a bit of a disappointing year in 2015 he has rebounded this season and is slashing .326/.375/.531 with a terrific 142 wRC+. He is a switch hitter that hits well from both sides of the plate(.320 avg vs. RH and .344 avg vs. LH) but most of the power comes from the left side of the plate where he has hit eight of his 12 home runs and recorded 29 of his 38 runs batted in. He is listed as a catcher on FanDuel and a first basemen on DraftKings.
Early Slate
Opponent - STL (Wacha) Park - @CHC
FD - 14.11 DK - 10.85
The early slate is loaded with power hitting first basemen making it a must to pay up on Wednesday. The projection system is favoring Rizzo over other elite options in Encarnacion and Goldschmidt on FanDuel with the three very close in PTS/$ projection on DraftKings. While I don't think you can go wrong with either of them, Rizzo may come with the most upside facing Michael Wacha who has struggled to a 0-6 record and 5.40 ERA since the start of May. He struggles with control(3.33 BB/9) and is giving up 37% hard hit contact to left handed batters.
Evening Slate
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.54 DK - 9.08
Ramirez makes a terrific value play at first base on Wednesday evening. He is the 13th ranked in salary on DraftKings and 11th on FanDuel. While I wouldn't trust him in cash games as he has struggled in June with an average below the Mendosa Line but he will allow you to load up at other positions while still giving you big upside. It isn't the greatest matchup vs. Quintana but Ramirez has crushed left handed pitching for a .438 wOBA and 175 wRC+. Quintana has given up all five of his home runs against this season to right handed hitters. Take a shot with Han Ram.
Early Slate
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.23 DK - 7.34
If you are going to be fitting in a top pitcher and power hitter this afternoon, you are going to need a punt play or two. The price is a little high for me on FanDuel but Castro is an excellent value with a 3+ PTS/$ projection on DraftKings today. He has hit all over the order from third to ninth but has been steadily sitting in the five and six hole. He will face Jon Gray who has been up and down this season showing signs of dominance at times(high 9.92 K/9 rate) but also has shown the ability to blow up as well giving up at least one home run in each of his last five starts. This pick isn't about what Castro can provide but more about what he can give you access to in other slot sin your lineup.
Evening Slate
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.87
Dozier is on fire right now and has pushed his hit streak to four games after a third straight multi hit game last night. He is now hitting over .324 in June with a 165 wRC+. He is a very strong right handed hitter when facing left handed pitching as he is hitting with a .410 wOBA(115 points higher than against RH) and 160 wRC+ vs. southpaws. He will face Adam Morgan of the Phillies who has been dreadful lately with a 7.33 ERA since May 27th while giving up 10 home runs in those five starts for a 25% HR/FB rate. This is a great spot to fit the Twins right handed power into a stack whether you are playing cash games or tournaments.
Early Slate
Opponent - STL (Wacha) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.59
Like I mentioned with Castro at second base, to get a top pitcher and power hitter in your lineup today you are going to need some punt value. He hits 7th in the Cubs lineup which isn't ideal but the price is right and he is actually a much better hitter vs. right handed pitching with a .319 wOBA vs. a .255 wOBA against southpaws. He is coming off a three hit night and has two home runs in the last week.
Evening Slate
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.72 DK - 9.4
The Red Sox lead the league in runs scored with a whopping 391 which is close to 30 clear of the next best team. The matchup isn't the best against Quintana but if you are going to target one bat make it Bogaerts who is becoming one of the top shortstop in the league. He has improved across the board after a breakout 2015 season. He is hitting .347 overall which will most likely normalize as he has a high .392 BABIP. The big jump this year has been in the power category. He has already hit seven home runs this season after recording just seven all of last season. You especially want to play Bogaerts when facing a lefty as he has a .457 wOBA and 189 wRC+ vs. southpaws with only four strikeouts in 40 plate appearances.
Early Slate
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.48 DK - 11.05
The 2015 American League MVP is picking up where he left off in the power department with 17 home runs and a 152 wRC+ so far this season. He is actually hitting the ball harder than last season with a 41% hard hit contact rate(up close to 5% from last season) and continues to rake against left handed pitching. He gets a nice matchup vs. Robbie Ray who has been up and down this season and has struggled against teams with right handed heavy lineups as he is giving up a .371 wOBA and nine of his 10 home runs against to righties. The Jays are a team who can crush southpaws and Donaldson is an elite option worth paying for today.
Evening Slate
Opponent - SD (Johnson) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.73
Alvarez is a high upside when he faces right handed pitching as he is hitting with an average close to 130 points higher with a righty on the mound. Alvarez and the Orioles will get an elite matchup vs. the weakest arm on the mound Wednesday. Erik Johnson came over in the James Shields trade and has been just as bad as he was with the White Sox. In two starts with the Padres he has given up 10 earned runs(5 HR) in 10.2 innings pitched while only striking out five and walking four batters. Fire up "El Toro" tonight.
Early Slate
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 6.09 DK - 4.65
It has been an impressive start to the season for young Peter O'Brien as he has recorded four home runs in his first 10 games. He is nowhere near safe in cash games with a 43% K/9 rate and 0% walk rate but get him in some GPP lineups with that power upside. He has also been much better against left handed pitching with a .273 average while he is hitting just .053 average against right handed pitching. He is a punt play that comes with upside in a favorable matchup that allows you to spend up at pitcher and other power positions.
Consider: Jason Heyward and Mike Trout (FD)
Evening Slate
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.98 DK - 10.11
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.77
The Rangers let us down last night in a great spot at price points that seemed a little low. I am going back to the well on Wednesday as they will face another struggling pitcher in Dan Straily. He is coming off a start where he gave up seven hits and six earned runs to the Braves and has a 4.88 ERA in his last five starts dating back to May 27th. The biggest issue has been the control(3.45 BB/9 rate) combined with a very low GB rate of 29%. Straily relies on a 89 mph fastball over 50% of the time and if he isn't locating it can get touched up in a hurry. The Rangers outfielders have seen another price drop and combine that with burning 40-50% of people last night and you have a potential low owned OF combo with upside tonight.
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View Comments
Last night the dude that won the DK MLB $165K MOONSHOT, took first and second place, for $20,000 , with an obscure, NO owned, Philly, Minny stacks lineup. Vegas didn't post an O/U: 24 runs. Else I woulda been all over that. Vegas let me down again. I want to know where the dude got his inside information. I did have Tommy Joseph in a few lineups though.
Right. This is the exact strategy for top end GPP finishes. Stacking obscure/ contrarian teams for maximum separation. It's game theory and difficult to accomplish but it's not an accident per se.
I played Philly quite a bit and still ended up with squat. Even got my w' s with Bettis. Didn't think I should do opposite with every stack they suggested or play a hurt Posey and have vary end up not playing. Grrrr....
Sometimes I get so frustrated over the bs baseball! Worst night in fantasy for a long time!
@fat The "sharks" play multiple lineups and they choose stacks in games that they feel will be low owned as picking guys as low owned as possible is the secret to winning and production of course. .
Great call on alveraz last night guys! Tournaments not so good for me. Jumped on some high winner take all and ended up saving my night! Thanks again!
Yeah Alvarez was the key. Kicking myself because I limited BAL exposure based on the weather. It cost
Blindly attacking Reds pitching = blindly playing Coors. Sure, if you play them every time you'll hit sometimes but it's more fun going against the grain and the pay is good.
Seems like a bit of an overstatement in that it isn't blindly playing these guys. The Rangers have projected out ridiculously high in both our system and in Vegas for a reason. The Reds pitching is weaker, the ballpark is great and the the Texas prices are trending lower. Makes total sense really.
Hey Doug, please check your email reference subscription. Thanks.
Pitcher really looks ugly tonight.. What about Trevor Bauer? Says are bottom 5 in runs, top 5 in K's and Bauer has 5 straight quality starts
Rays** stupid autocorrect
I had joseph,Herrera and rupp to make salary space in half my lineups to fit hernandez and some elite bats I thought I needed..baseball is funny..well not really..the elite bats did nothing but the Phillips bats I plugged in for cap space did well..my pitching choices on both sites killed me.BTW I know Herrera didn't kill it but 2 stolen bases and a decent night
Kluber and Alvarez were great, I expected a lot more from my other players ie Murphy and Choo
correction..I played franco,Herrera and joseph
Great call on Choo last night.....
Ha. He was an overwhelming chalk play for a reason so I'm not too worried about the process there. Will happily roster him again today.
I was talking about this on the podcast today, but it's so funny about baseball. In his first AB Choo missed a double by about two inches (maybe less) down the RF line. Went on the K and is a perfect example of why variance in MLB DFS is so high.
But again, Choo at these prices in advantageous matchups hitting leadoff is a clear play. No regrets there