Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 6/19/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article, but here we will look at other pitchers to consider.

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Pitching Targets

We covered Maeda, DeGrom, and Price in the main picks article today. These are a few other guys you can consider for big tournaments, or in the 2nd pitcher slot on DraftKings.

Julio Teheran FD 8500 DK 11600
Opponent - NYM (deGrom) Park - @NYM
FD - 31.9 DK - 17.14

DeGrom is going to be a chalk play in many formats tonight, which opens us up for a perfect big tournament counter in Teheran. The Mets/Braves game has by far the lowest total of the day, and yes, much of that is due to the ace going for the Mets - but Teheran hasn't been a slouch this season himself. He also makes for an interesting test case when it comes to picking a big tournament pitcher. Yes, Teheran is running hot in both BABIP allowed (.221) and ERA (2.93 compared to his 3.94 xFIP), but this is actually helpful in making the case for him. Teheran's a fly ball pitcher, and while that means he gives up more than the occasional long-ball, he stands to allowed a lower BABIP than his ground-ball counter-parts. He's also striking out nearly a guy per inning, and is facing the team that has struck out at the 5th highest rate (23.5% of the time) against right handers in the majors this year.

When we're looking for upside, we want to target guys who need to hit the highest peak of their upside, but who are in a position to do so if things break just right. Is Teheran likely to get the win? No, according to Vegas. But he certainly could, and given the binary nature of wins (you either get one or you don't), we are happy to have his discounted chance at a win priced in for him. Might the Mets hit some long balls off of him? Sure. But they also might not, and their high strikeout ways make them a lot more vulnerable to whiffing on whole games than many other teams as good as them.

Carlos Carrasco FD 9400 DK 8700
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CLE
FD - 35.9 DK - 19.5
Carrasco is back to work doing his "one of the league's most underrated pitcher" routines, and the price on DraftKings here is just egregious. Carrasco's 2.66 xFIP across 2014 and 2015 paints the picture of an elite - not merely good - starting pitcher. And while it seems like the injury has effected his strike-out ability to some degree, his command is still elite, and he's producing plenty fine results.

The match-up is also a plenty good one - the White Sox have the 6th worst wOBA against right handed pitching this season, and strike out at about a league average rate. The Indians are a -178 favorite today as well, meaning Carrasco is a solid favorite to pull a W out of this. I'm not in love with this being played in an American league park (thanks a lot, DH), but again - we're just hoping to hit the high end of variance here, and Carrasco can certainly do that for us.

He's also just a terrific play in any format on DraftKings.

Archie Bradley FD 6500 DK 7700
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @PHI
FD - 28.93 DK - 14.61
Okay, this one might be just slightly off the rails. We've been stacking against Bradley for most of the season, and he certainly hasn't quite lived up to his top prospect billing. But there's more here than meets the eye.

First of all, Bradley's K numbers this season are legitimately eye-popping. You aren't going to find a ton of guys who can average better than 10 K/9 across 75 AAA and major league innings for prices like these. So why prices like these? Well, Bradley has been pretty bad in the other phases of the game. His control is a mess, and he's leaving a ridiculous amount of mistakes up in the zone. And, hey, Philly is not exactly a pitcher's park.

But if we're hoping to scrape the upper edge of variance, this might be a more than worthwhile stab at catching lightning in a bottle. The Phillies have been putrid against right handed pitching this season, posting the league's 8th highest K% alongside the 2nd lowest wOBA. Bradley is also as big a favorite as he's likely to be all season, as Vegas is projecting a sound D-Backs beating of Phillies starter Zach Eflin. All the stars are aligned here for a potential monster game.

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