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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/18/16
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PITCHER
EARLY SLATE
Dallas Keuchel FD 7700 DK 7700
Opponent - CIN (Wright) Park - @HOU
FD - 36.69 DK - 19.06
Let me start by saying that I think this initial projection on Keuchel is a little bullish, but far from out of bounds. Though some may look at the 5.54 ERA and puke a bit in their mouth, I'm staring at a 3.40 xFIP which could point to healthy regression. He's struggled mightily with runners on base this season (64% LOB) along with a tick up in opponents' BABIP. It's not all rosy in that his LD% is up this season with opposing bats making better contact. But he's a crazy -275 opening money line favorite against a Reds squad ranked in the middle of the pack against lefties (non-park adjusted) and striking out 23% of the time. If you think Keuchel's recent K numbers are for real and the luck trends in his direction then he is a fantastic (almost must) play on the early slate.
Michael Pineda FD 7900 DK 8300
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIN
FD - 32.25 DK - 17.16
More of a tournament play for me today or a SP2 on DraftKings. Much like Keuchel, there's reason to suspect Pineda's struggles are a little bad luck-ish. His 3.57 xFIP sits more than two runs below the 5.88 ERA. He too has struggled with runners on base, but that's been a career issue for the dude so I can't completely expect it to turn around. But the .371 BABIP really can't sustain and I love the 9.88 K/9 rate. The Twins strike out almost 23% of the time against righties and not having to pitch this one in Yankee Stadium for sure helps.
EVENING SLATE
Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 13900
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @SD
FD - 45.01 DK - 25.86
It doesn't get much easier than this for the evening slate of games. Scherzer comes in with the best matchup and it isn't particularly close. The Padres are atrocious against righties this season, posting a league-worst .278 wOBA in the split while striking out more than 24% of the time. Scherzer's been a K machine this season, putting down more than 11 batters per nine and a walk rate of only 2.36 per nine. Those numbers are excellent and he's of course a stud. The Padres have the lowest run expectation on the board and Max opens at a -215 (not the best on the slate, but damn good). Easy call on FD and the only thing that makes it interesting is his DK price.
Steven Matz FD 10100 DK 10900
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @NYM
FD - 38.04 DK - 21
Jon Lester is also going on this slate, but I'll take the slight discount you get on Matz and Lester's tag would rather have me paying up for Scherzer there. Matz opens at a -250 and brings excellent peripherals with a K per inning while walking less than two in the same frame. The Braves are an epic pile of garbage against lefties this season with a .257 team wOBA. They don't strike out a ton, but does it matter?
Consider Mike Bolsinger on the cheaper side of things
CATCHER
EARLY SLATE
Evan Gattis FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - CIN (Reed) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.79
For the love of all things holy (and all other things that aren't holy) please let The Grape be in the lineup today. He's easily the top cash game catcher, made even better because he's C on DK as well now. Cody Reed is something of a prospect but that doesn't have me overly concerned considering it's his first major league start. Gattis (and many of the other Astros as you'll soon see) is a fantastic play against the lefty Reed.
Consider Brian McCann
EVENING SLATE
Salvador Perez FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @KC
FD - 9.48 DK - 7.41
Perez is putting together an excellent season with a mid 800's OPS thanks mostly to his 11 dongs. I don't think either is totally sustainable but there's for sure some life in that bat. He's buoyed also by a .342 BABIP but he's in a good matchup today. He's a platoon neutral hitter so I don't give him a bump against the lefty Rodon, but the latter is merely an average arm. Perez isn't cheap cheap, but the catcher pool on the evening slate is mighty thin so I don't mind paying up a bit.
Strongly consider Victor Martinez
FIRST BASE
EARLY SLATE
Hanley Ramirez FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.89
There are a bunch of advantageous offensive situations going on the early slate and the Red Sox are one of them. Hanley's picking up the pace against lefties this season after a down couple of seasons. In a short 2016 sample the lefty platoon is over a 1K OPS and a 170 wRC+. He's even running bad (it looks like at least) on his HR/FB ratio. The Sox are in a great spot against the left Wade Miley Hanley's mid tier salary is more than in play. Update: Adrian Sampson is pitching for the Mariners. Red Sox still very much in play.
Chris Davis FD 3800 DK 5200
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.61 DK - 9.44
I always want to target Crush against pitchers with low K rates. Considering that's Davis' biggest weakness, we want to lower the swing and miss expectation whenever possible. This is one of those matchups. R.A. Dickey K's around six batters per nine and walks more than three. The knuckle doesn't have the life anymore and R.A.'s just a regular guy now. Davis owns a .397 wOBA against righties over the last couple of seasons and Camden Yards plays up power for lefties.
EVENING SLATE
Anthony Rizzo FD 3000 DK 5300
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.49
Rizzo's price has plummeted on FanDuel where he's now just $3000. That's must play territory for the guy even against the lefty Niese. Rizzo's been fine against southpaws over the last couple of seasons with a .362 wOBA and .828 OPS. The Cubs are favorites to put up runs in this matchup against Niese who nibbles around the edges and doesn't have much in the way of K ability. Rizzo's putting up an excellent season so the DK price tag isn't out of bounds. But the FD salary is must play.
SECOND BASE
EARLY SLATE
Dustin Pedroia FD 3600 DK 5100
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.16 DK - 9.57
Remember what I said about the Red Sox? You'll keep seeing them down the list. I know they've underperformed the last couple of nights so save the comments. Pedrioa is a contact hitter who's tough for lefties to K (11.2%) or walk (7.7%). That's fine against a guy like Miley who doesn't have put away stuff. You'll tae Pedroia's .823 OPS over the last two seasons against lefties and I love the plate appearance and run expectation coming from the whole Red Sox squad today. They project out to mash. Update: Adrian Sampson is pitching for the Mariners. Red Sox still very much in play.
Strongly consider Matt Carpenter
EVENING SLATE
Neil Walker FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.82
With the Mets ailing of late (Duda and Wright on the shelf) Walker's moved into the cleanup slot for New York. His price hasn't totally caught up with the opportunity. Walker's .842 OPS this season is above his career averages thanks to a bump in his Hr/FB ratio. But the walks are up which is great against a guy like Aaron Blair who has the distinction of walking more batters per nine (5.58) than he strikes out (5.13). Blair is horrible and stacking the top of the Mets' order on the evening slate looks like the move for sure. If Walker is hitting in the four slot again then he's an easy cash game play.
Strongly consider Ben Zobrist
SHORTSTOP
EARLY SLATE
Xander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 5400
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.52 DK - 9.98
He's having some kind of season for any hitter, much less a shortstop. Xander's .913 OPS with some steals thrown in is the stuff the fantasy gods molded at the dawn of time. He's a stud plain and simple and the FanDuel price is just too low. It's a different' story on DraftKings where you'll pay a pretty penny. But I don't know why you'd fade him in cash games against Miley at only $3700. Especially considering you won't have to pay up for pitching. It's an easy call. Update: Adrian Sampson is pitching for the Mariners. Red Sox still very much in play.
Carlos Correa FD 3700 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Reed) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.83 DK - 9.7
He's more the DraftKings play. Correa has actually been exactly platoon neutral over the last two seasons so no worries on the righty-righty matchup here with Reed. His $4K tag on DraftKings gives him more cap flexibility than Bogaerts over there which will end up being important even without some of the higher-priced pitchers on this early slate.
EVENING SLATE
Javier Baez FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.69
At the risk of listing every Cub, I'm just going to list every Cub. Look, they are in the best matchup in the evening and have mashed for most of the season. Baez never saw a walk he wanted to take, but he does have pop in the bat and just a trickle of speed as well. He's also handled lefty pitching like a boss over the last two seasons with a .988 OPS and .423 wOBA. Sure, those are BABIP fueled, but even regressed to the bejeezus and he's still better in this split. Coming cheap all around even for the bottom of the order.
Consider Alcides Escobar
THIRD BASE
EARLY SLATE
Pedro Alvarez FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.86
The hot corner on the early slate it major league slim picken's. I don't love throwing a guy like Alvarez to the top of the list, but he's cheap (on FD) and has some power upside for sure. The position in the batting lineup hurts him as I don't like rostering guys this low, but I don't see a ton of other options. He reduces his K expectation against Dickey and is well above average over the last couple of seasons against righty pitching with an .808 OPS and .341 wOBA. Those numbers play especially in this ballpark.
EVENING SLATE
Kris Bryant FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.88 DK - 9.97
All the Cubs on the evening slate. All the Cubs. Bryant sat out yesterday with an upset tummy, but he should be back in the lineup tonight. He's had solid early returns against lefties in his short career though his biggest bugaboo there is the 30%+ K rate. Don't worry, Jon Niese isn't all that worried in the strikeout. He puts down less than seven per nine and Bryant should be in the three hole again today. The problem on FanDuel for the evening slate will be who to roster along with a bigger arm. The Cubs' prices aren't off the reservation, but they aren't punts either.
Strongly consider Alex Rodriguez
OUTFIELD
EARLY SLATE
Note: I've covered the Red Sox, Cubs and Astros already. Know that Mookie Betts, George Springer and Dexter Fowler are all fantastic plays. I'm going to focus on a few cheaper dudes here to round out lineups.
David Peralta FD 2400 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.64 DK - 7.65
We should see him near the top of the order today against the righty Eickhoff and is coming basically free on FanDuel. He's cheap on DraftKings as well, but the FD price is a must play if he's in the top 5 slots in the order. Peralta's been on the shelf much of the season, but this is a guy with a .901 OPS against righties over the last two seasons and a 139 wRC+. Eickhoff's a fine enough pitcher (good, far from great) but the salary on Peralta is too good to pass up.
Hyun-soo Kim FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.33
A big fan of him hitting out of the two hole against righties and he's had some solid early returns. The He's tough to K, will take a walk and has hit to the tune of an .842 OPS. As we've discussed, Dickey is headed over the hill and the ballpark helps here.
EVENING SLATE
Michael Conforto FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.63
Curtis Granderson FD 3600 DK 5100
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.26
Remember when I mentioned that Aaron Blair was a pitcher's crime against humanity? That rings true for these two guys as well. Both guys' salaries will help fit the likes of Scherzer (or another top tier pitcher of your choice) and have such a great matchup that they appear safe for cash games. Both are clearly better against righty pitching for their respective careers and have enough patience at the plate to wait out the inevitable Blair walks.
Bryce Harper is close to a must play at his price as well.
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image sources
- Max Scherzer: AP Photo - Eric Risberg
35 Visitor Comments
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Bosox facing rhp Sampson according to mlb app
Yes, it looks like Sampson is indeed starting > Miley. That has changed since last night. However, the Red Sox are still in a great, if not better spot. While Sampson is a right hander, he has struggled mightily against both lefties and righties throughout his time in the minors. With a very low K rate and a high HR rate, you can expect him to struggle against the Sox in his debut.
took 99/100 in a 50/50 yesterday using the optimizer. What’s the deal? I use the top optimizer lineup at after the updates around 6:30EST.
Hey Tim, a DFS sport can’t be measured in a 100 day sample size, let alone a single slate on a single day. Baseball, more than other sport, has a TON of variance. With entire slates being changed by 1 swing of a bat, it is a long haul and a tough grind. Ultimately, the goal is to put yourself in a better position than the field day in and day out. We have been doing very well lately and expect to do more of the same as the season rolls on! Good luck today and tonight! Let me know if you have any more questions.
– Austyn
That’s baseball! Too many long bombs. The optimizer spit out 2 of the 3 bombers in the suggested stack line ups. Like the disclaimer always says, “nothing is gauranteed.” Hopefully today is better. Put the Red Sox as a tourney stack or cash stack imo. GOOD LUCK!
When I click to use any of the optimizers this morning they don’t display. It brings up a page explaining the different packages. Are they down right now? John G.
Saunders+Guiterrez+O’Brien= $$$$!!! Wish I had chosen just a slightly better play at SP over Archer and I would have finished 1st in that gpp.
Don’t forget Tomas with a touch of Perez for my Royals. What a night!! Saunders had a shot at the Grand Slam too!
Come on guys yesterday’s was home run city still complaints. Thanks for advice yesterday cashed out in some big cash games!! Thank you
Thoughts on Mr. Lincecum’s return today? I like the salary on DK, but that is a risky play.
Scored 190+ yesterday using the sites advice in pretty much every position. Check out the long ball section from yesterday. Right on. If gattis would have done anything would have taken down first still made a couple hundred. Thanks guys
The optimizer has Chis Young pitching against the Red Sox.
Where do you see this? I’ve been fiddling with projections this morning bringing things up to speed, but I’m not seeing the Young thing
Could someone please explain to me the “lingo” of gpp, cash games or sp2.
Lonnie, gpp means guaranteed prize pool and describes the large entry tournaments where the top 20% or so win and the higher you finish the more you win. Cash games are the smaller scale 50/50 and double up games where out of say 100’entries the top 50 will all win the same amount regardless of where they finish. SP2 refers to draftkings lineups calling for 2 pitchers, you generally want an ace for your first pick, but the try to find a value guy for your Starting Pitcher 2 (SP2) to allow you to save some salary to pick up better bats
Doug, if you select pitchers in the optimizer and go to the bottom pitcher, it says Chris Young is pitching in Boston with Seattle as the opponent.
I really want to use Scherzer but would have to do it in conjunction with Chen to have salary for the hitters I want. Chen scares me a little but his price is so low and at least he’s facing a slew of lefties in the CO lineup. Thoughts?
just a small heads up and question..Kuechelet is pitching against cincinnati.the write up is for him facing philly..would you still recommend him?
kuechel…sorry autocorrect sucks.also I wanted to sign up for optimizer but they won’t accept prepaid visa.is there another way?I refuse to use a regular be bit or credit card for dfs..keeps me from spending money I can’t afford to spend..
Ah yeah. I was watching D-Backs- Phils last night while writing this and transposed Philly in my brain. I corrected. Still a must play, projections were correct just my brain broken
Also, I sent you an email re: signing up w/out CC.
Great advice on Saunders last night! Had him in 4 of 5 gpp line ups and cashed out nicely! One complaint, you didn’t say he would hit 3 home runs lol!
To speak of the volatility in MLB usually my double ups cover any gpp losses, last night I cashed in gpp’s and got killed in my double ups.
I just can’t bring myself to roster Bryce Harper anymore, whatever the price. Teams aren’t pitching to him, and on the occasion they do, the hit resembles a ball smacked with a boat paddle. It’s not his fault, but without halfway decent pitches thrown to him, I don’t see how he generates points for your roster.
I know the hesitancy though it’s worth mentioning that he’s only a game removed from a three-run home run in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball
I’m done with Trout. I pulled Harper last second and put in Bryce. ? Utilized the optimizer and locked Donaldson, O’brien and Saunders in my lines. Gattis was disappointment, but split lines with Perez. He’s a hot bat here in KCMO! I think a Jays Red Sox double stack is interesting today. That’s what’s fun about the optimizer.
*put in Mike.
thanks doug and I need to figure out another way to purchase optomizer.like I said yesterday I keep hearing how great your optomizer is.I’ve tried other sites with no success.I’m doing something wrong JUST going off writeups because I’m not winning..lol I personally can’t wait for college and NFL season.I made over 6k last season just gpp.can’t figure baseball out thanks for everyone’s comments here.I go by them also
Austin, so what’s the strategy. I did better reading your articles and building my own line up all season. Just recently, using the optimizer, I have found some tough luck. Certainly 1 day means little, but the couple weeks of optimizer hasn’t been great. Looking for guidance here. Thanks
The optimizer works great for me. Last night not included. However the optimizer is going to give you a great basis to start a a lineup with based on statistical information. It’s not going to hit a homerun every time at the plate. Use it as a guideline and build lineups around it.
Any thoughts on trying Reed tonight in gpp’s. I’m a diehard Astros fan and lost big on them last night. Just afraid their bats are a little off now and this guy can k with the best of em in the minors! Thoughts??
Oops, I owe a big apology…your picks got me some mula last night!! I went straight with your picks and not mine…lol…my bad…Thanks Obi One Kenobi!!!
Optimizer couldn’t get off of Chen. Now I need a miracle to hit my 50/50s. I hate that idiot. Horrible few days
The Braves don’t strike out a ton?.. what research are you studying?…My study says Atlanta is the WORST K team in the majors when facing a Lefty with 200 ks to date..no one even comes close to as bad
I’d def play Harper tonight just a hunch
Toronto bottom your picks are hitting still early but thank you again
So sick of these bullpens costing me 12 points from a starting pitcher that tosses a gem!!!!!! Those 12 points are vital on short slates!! Night after night after night!!!