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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/15/2016
Brent Holloway

Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/15/16

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

We've got a five-game early slated dominated by elite pitching and Coors Field, followed by a 10-gamer tonight with a few more aces and a couple of offenses in good spots. There's plenty of action to be had on both, so let's get to it.

Personnel

  • Gerardo Parra had to be carted off the field last night after injuring his ankle in a collision with Trevor Story. He'll undergo an MRI today.
  • Carlos Beltran is dealing with a swollen left knee. It kept him out of Tuesday's lineup and could sideline him again today.
  • The Rockies have activated Tony Wolters from the seven-day concussion DL. Dustin Garneau was sent back to Triple-A in the corresponding move.
  • The Angels are expected to activate Andrelton Simmons from the DL today.
  • Victor Martinez missed his second consecutive game last night due to a knee issue.
  • Michael Conforto sat out again last night as he continues to nurse a wrist injury. He's considered day-to-day until further notice.
  • Brandon Belt was forced out of last night's game after getting hit with a pitch on the ankle. X-rays came back negative, but there's been no update on his availability for tonight's game yet.
  • Josh Phegley left last night's game after getting hit with a pitch on the knee. Keep an eye out for updates.
  • Steven Souza Jr. injured his hip last night diving for a fly ball in right field. X-rays came back negative and he's considered day-to-day for now.
  • Derek Dietrich sat Tuesday after getting hit by a pitch in the foot on Monday. He's scheduled for X-rays on the injury today.
  • Angel Pagan returned from his DL stint last night and hit seventh for the Giants.
  • Neil Walker sat again on Tuesday. He's been out of the Mets lineup since making an early exit Saturday due to stiffness in his lower back.

DFSR 705x90

Tournament Stacks

New York Yankees
Look, we don't think you can go wrong on either side of this matchup. Yesterday we gave you the Rockies because we were a little skittish about the Yankees' track record vs. LHP.  But providing further evidence that there's no offensive deficiency Coors Field can't solve, both teams went off up and down the lineup and combined for 30 hits and 23 runs. We like the Yankees better by a hair today, but keep an eye on the lineup. Without the benefit of a DH, it's tough to guess which way they'll go. A-Rod sat yesterday, but could conceivably get a start at 1B. Meanwhile, Carlos Beltran is doubtful after having his knee drained. The good news is the absence of one or both frees up a spot in the middle of the order for a cheaper bat. Last night, moderately priced guys like Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Rob Refsnyder and Didi Gregorious turned in big nights, and it's worth taking a chance on them again if they get a favorable spot in the order, as you'll need the savings to pay up for some of the attractive pitching available today. They also signed Ike Davis over the weekend, and if he gets a start, you'll have the rare opportunity to play a min-priced dude in the best hitter's park in MLB. The Rockies will start Chad Bettis today, a mediocre guy with home run problems, and we think anybody who picks up a bat is in play.

Chicago White Sox
Continuing the theme of yesterday's inverse, we're going back to US Cellular Field today for one of our favorite pivots off of Coors. Yesterday we liked the Tigers, but tonight we're on the White Sox (or on Mike Pelfrey, to put a finer point on it). If you read this site often, you know that the beleaguered Detroit righty is one of our projection system's favorite punching bags. We'll be happy to stop picking on him as soon as he gives us a reason to, but in the meantime, any stats you want to look at tell you he's a bottom-tier starter. Don't believe in xFIP? His SIERA is even worse (5.03 vs. 5.28). Hate advanced metrics? His ERA is 4.68. Have something against acronyms? Just look at the raw numbers: 65.1 inning, 84 hits, 34 Ks, 28 walks, 10 homers. The White Sox are nobody's idea of the 2015 Blue Jays, but they've got some bats who can hurt Pelfrey and they've scored 17 runs in the last two games. We don't typically put a lot of stock in that kind of anecdotal evidence, but we don't need much to tip the scales here. Pelfrey's soft and the park is favorable, so stack up some power bats and/or top-of-the-order guys and we think you'll stand a good chance of turning a profit tonight.

Sneaky Pitcher

Marco EstradaMarco Estrada

The system actually prefers Anthony Desclafani on a points/$ basis and far be it from me to dissuade you from using pretty much any pitcher who has the good fortune of facing the Atlanta Braves. But I think Estrada's a slightly safer play and the extra points he's projected to earn might be worth his higher price. One more quick word about Atlanta: they're still awful offensively, but they're hitting RHP better as of late, perhaps due to the fact that they finally figured out that Mallex Smith and his .377 wOBA vs. righties don't belong at the bottom of the order. As for Estrada, he's decent, but the primary attraction here is the fact that he's facing the Phillies, who rank 28th in MLB (ahead of only the Braves and Padres) in wOBA and wRC+ vs. righties. Estrada is probably due for some ERA regression, but we think he's in a fine spot, especially if Maikel Franco is sitting again.

 

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Note: We're doing something a little different in this section today and recommending a pair of punt options. The optimizer is all over these guys on their respective sites, and using them will obviously allow you a lot more lineup flexibility as you try to fit in some high-priced pitching and Coors Field bats.

Enrique HernandezKike Hernandez

The Dodgers' diminutive lefty-killer is the system's favorite play on FanDuel, where's he's min-priced. His numbers are down a bit this year, which, along with his part-time role explains the price and will hopefully keep his ownership low. It'll be easy to glance at that .204 batting average and decide you can find better bargains elsewhere, but Hernandez is still posting a .340 wOBA against southpaws this season and his history tells us he's capable of more. In 157 big-league plate appearances against LHP, he owns a .409 wOBA and .248 ISO. Of course, that's still a pretty small sample, but good luck finding anything better at these prices, especially for a guy who typically hits at the top of the order against lefties. Don't get us wrong, Kike isn't the kind of guy we're expecting to carry us to GPP glory, but we think he can do his part while allowing us to load up on studs. The fact that he's facing a so-so guy like Patrick Corbin in a great hitter's park is just icing on the cake.

Tim AndersonTim Anderson

Finding punts might not be as necessary on the late slate, where Clayton Kershaw and Coors Field don't factor into the equation, but we think the price on Anderson is just too good, especially on DraftKings ($2K!). Anderson is a nice prospect with big-time speed, and he's been slotted at the top of the White Sox order since Jimmy Rollins was let go earlier this week. That spot in the lineup is worth his cost and more, especially with big things expected out of the Chicago offense tonight. If James McCann is behind the dish for the Tigers that limits Anderson's running upside to some degree, but if Saltalamacchia gets the call, it's going to be really tough to turn anywhere else at SS tonight.

One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!

image sources

  • 1024px-Coors_Field,_Denver,_Colorado,_US: By color line (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

2 Visitor Comments

  1. With stacking GPP games, I was always reluctant to utilize the optimizer because of the total projected score. I had to get into the GPP and separation mindset. My best line last night projected 96 with the optimizer and put up 247. I was holdings my breath during the LAA game for Chacin but it hit! I played a long time with optimizer spits and was frustrated when the 124 had me teetering on the edge of the money line by 2 points… I had to balance those value plays and integrate them with the must plays. The optimizer works like clockwork if you UNDERSTAND the basics. Lastly, don’t fight it. That is why we pay these guys. I have trust when I select my stacks the optimal players will be targeted. My only responsibility is watching weather and line ups and lock time. Learn the stacking and let the optimizer do the rest. Good luck today everybody! Hope you stacked some Miami games!

  2. i need a good cash gpp lineup baby need new shoes

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