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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/14/16
Welcome to Tuesday baseball! We have a 14 game main slate with some interesting options on the board at every position. We also have a Coors Field game tonight so you will see a bunch of guys mentioned from that game, rightfully so. Make sure to check out our other contact as it will touch on a multitude of things you can use to help you win your contests. Let's get into the top picks at each position!
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PITCHER
David Price FD 10500 DK 9700
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BOS
FD - 38 DK - 25.05
The pitcher position is finally good today and we have a plethora of options to choose from. Starting off with David Price, he will be facing a team in the Baltimore Orioles that strikeout a ton. So far in 2016, they have struck out 22.7% and I expect that number to go up as the year goes on. David Price on the other hand, has not started the year tremendously, however, with an xFIP of 3.40, his peripherals suggest some major improvement. Price has been a big strikeout pitcher over the course of his career and there is no reason to believe he won't extend that into tonight. Price is in play on both sites, however, he is close to a must play for me on DraftKings at only $9700. You can feel comfortable with that price on Price. Pun intended.
Madison Bumgarner FD 11900 DK 13800
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @SF
FD - 41.91 DK - 23.73
Last but certainly not least at pitcher, we have Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner and the Giants are taking on the Brewers at home in pitcher friendly AT&T park. The Brewers are another team that struggled with strikeouts as evident by their extremely high 25.1% K rate in 2016. When we look at the 2016 version of Bumgarner, we see a guy who has held a +10 K/9 while walking less than 2 batter per 9. Facing off with a very impatient team, those numbers are a recipe for success and I think we can look forward to a very nice performance tonight from the left handed superstar. While he is more expensive than Price, he is also going to be a lot lower owned which is a huge deal in tournaments, especially when talking about baseball. Feel free to roster Bumgarner in all formats on all sites.
CATCHER
Josh Phegley FD 2800 DK 3000
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.11 DK - 7
The Athletics have been taking on a ton of lefties as of late and Phegley has been nothing short of magnificent. Tonight, the Athletics will be taking on another southpaw in Martin Perez. Perez, while not a horrible pitcher, has been pretty rough against righties over the course of his career. Since 2014, Perez has exhibited a .333 wOBA against righties that is backed up by a high line drive rate and low GB rate. Phegley on the other hand, has sustained a .349 wOBA against southpaws dating back to 2014. Phegley is a terrific way to get salary relief on both sites.
Yasmani Grandal FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - ARI (Bradley) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.77 DK - 7.45
Lastly at catcher, we are going to look at Yasmani Grandal who will be facing off with Archie Bradley in hitter friendly Chase Field. While Grandal is better against left handers, he has hit righties just fine over the course of his career. Dating back to the 2013 season, Grandal has hit righties to the tune of a .332 wOBA and a 33.1% hard contact rate. Archie Bradley on the other hand, has been hit around by lefties in 2016 as evidenced by the .376 wOBA he has given up. With this game being played in Chase Field, Grandal has a great shot to hit one out.
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.25 DK - 9.95
While Ortiz has surely slowed down immensely as of late, I am going to chalk that up to the series being played in AT&T park and Target Field, which are both very negative parks for left handed power. Since the start of the year, Ortiz has demonstrated elite numbers against right handers with an absurd .482 wOBA, .437 OBP and a 47.6% hard contact rate. While Chris Tillman is a very average pitcher against lefties, those Ortiz numbers are no match for anyone associated with the word average. You can roster Ortiz with as much confidence as you will find anywhere on this slate. While I do prefer him on FanDuel, he is still very viable on DK.
Matt Adams FD 3400 DK 3400
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @STL
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.89
While Ortiz is far and away my top option at first base, Matt Adams comes in at second when you consider price and match up. At $3400 on both DK and FD, Adams bring you a ton of power upside, however, for a big guy he is a great contact hitter. Since 2014, Adams has sustained an OBP over .330. As well as a quality OBP, Adams has put together a wOBA of .341 against righties. Doug Fister is regarded as an above average pitcher by many, however, his numbers suggest otherwise. Dating back to him being traded in 2014, he has sported a SIERA of 4.62 that is backed up by a 33.6% hard contact rate and a 24.6% LD rate. While I prefer Adams in cash games, I wouldn't blame you for taking a shot on him in a tournament.
SECOND BASE
Jason Kipnis FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @KC
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.56
Moving on the to cornerstone position, we are going to look at Jason Kipnis. Kipnis and the Indians will be taking on the Royals and Chris Young, a right handed pitcher that has struggled against lefties mightily in recent history with an insanely bad .392 wOBA since 2015. Kipnis gives you a ton of upside as he provides you with speed and power. In 2013 and 2014, Kipnis had over 15 home runs and over 30 stolen bases. With second base being pretty weak, Kipnis is a great choice to plug into both your cash games ad tournaments.
Starlin Castro FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.91
While I am surprised it took this long to look at guys in Coors Field, it is going to pick up from here on out in a big guy. The first guy we are going to look at is Starlin Castro. While Castro is no elite hitter, Coors Field gives him a huge bump and turns him into a hypothetical 25 home run guy. Dating back to his debut with the Chicago Cubs, Castro has sported a .331 wOBA against lefties that is backed up by a 30% hard contact rate and a 23% LD rate. While we will touch on the details of De La Rosa later, all you need to know is he is a bad pitcher.
SHORTSTOP
Trevor Story FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @COL
FD - 10.42 DK - 8.47
Now on to shortstop, we will touch on the other side of Coors Field, the Rockies. Trevor Story certainly came out as a huge rookie prospect and over-performed, no doubt. However, there is also no doubting that he is a spectacular hitter. Since his major league debut on opening day, Story has sported a .357 wOBA against right handers, which is backed up by a 39.3% hard contact rate and .852 OPS. Story is a terrific option in both cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel at only $3400.
Brandon Crawford FD 3300 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @SF
FD - 9.31 DK - 7.33
While there is a tremendously large chance I am going to just go with Story in all of my lineups, there is always a case to be made for another guy in baseball, due to the volatility no matter the situation. The second guy I will be looking at is Brandon Crawford facing off with Matt Garza and the Milwaukee Brewers. Matt Garza will be making his first start of the season after suffering a back injury that has held him out to begin the year. Garza has struggled against lefties, but that's not really why i'm rostering Crawford. Garza will likely be held to only 3 or 4 innings which will let Crawford rack up 3 or 4 at-bats against a bullpen that has struggled mightily.
THIRD BASE
Alex Rodriguez FD 4000 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.92
It is all Coors Field from here on out and that comes along with the territory when there is a +11.5 over/under consistently. Let's touch on Jorge De La Rosa and why we are so excited to target the Yankees against him. In 2016, De la Rosa has sported an absurd .500 wOBA against right handers in Coors Field. While that is certainly unsustainable, it proves just how bad he is. With his age increasing and his velocity/movement decreasing, I don't see it getting too much better for Jorge. A-Rod on the other hand, seems to be aging just fine with a .340 wOBA against southpaws this far into 2016. No reason to be hesitant about A-Rod against a lefty in Coors Field.
Nolan Arenado FD 4300 DK 5600
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @COL
FD - 12.82 DK - 9.93
Another bat in Colorado and you should get used to it because when there is a game in Coors, you have to get exposure unless you want to be super contrarian in a tournament. That being said, the top overall play is going to be Nolan Arenado. When Arenado is in Coors Field, he is going to be the top point projection at third base 99% of the time. He will be facing off with Nathan Eovaldi, a right handed fire-baller that has had his fair share of struggles against righties.
OUTFIELD
Aaron Hicks FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.63
Carlos Beltran FD 4300 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.92
Another 2 Yankees bats here, no surprise. There is not too much more to say about the match up. Jorge De la Rosa is an absolute gas can and the Yankees offense has a ton of potential. Both Carlos Beltran and Aaron Hicks have hit lefties extremely well with respective wOBA's over +.350. You can target this entire offense with confidence in both cash games and tournaments.
Carlos Gonzalez FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @COL
FD - 13.42 DK - 10.35
Gerardo Parra FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @COL
FD - 10.48 DK - 8.7
Carlos Gonzalez has had a fantastic June with 4 home runs in 10 games and a .357 wOBA. Gonzalez has always hit the fastball extremely well and Nathan Eovaldi throws the fastball over 70% of the time. While CarGo will likely be very high owned, he just might be worth it in all formats. Make sure you get some exposure to this game and CarGo is a terrific way to do that. While the price is very steep on DK, it should lower his ownership quite a bit. Gerardo Parra on the other hand, comes in a bit cheaper and has hit the ball very well in Coors Field this season
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40 Visitor Comments
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you put Adams but no Brandon Moss??
Last night was double stack galore! Was BS to lose Manaea, but still looked an NBA score. Optimizer is cruising!⚾️??
you really feel the optimizer helps in building winners?
Since A Rod hasn’t played in field in over a year I think there’s a lot of reasons to be hesitant about rolling him out there
When DFS first started feeling the heat after a couple of “questionable” instances, Doug wrote a very insightful response about the comparison to on-line poker, on-line poker’s questionable practices, and the difference between the two. It was pretty informative. That said, could you keep us up to date with yesterday’s Bloomberg report about a DK/FD merger? I know it’s been bantered around before but it appears that it might have some wheels now. Thanks.
How about going out on a limb once and a while and pick some players that are not in Colorado. I think we are all fantasy smart enough to figure those guys out. I specifically go on your site to get insight on the hidden value players, but you rarely list those.
Probably an overstatement but I hear what you are saying. Caught in between on situations like this. While on the one hand we want to assume all DFS folks understand the effect of Coors, it’s simply not the case. When a game has 20-25% more projected runs than the next closest game, those players have to figure prominently in the picks. Our system fleshes this out too in the actual projections.
Fair point. As I always tell me 3 boys, never assume!! I guess that also applies to fantasy.
I have been on a bargain bin pitcher binge lately and its been paying off. What do you think on this lineup?
Surkamp, Perez, Ortiz, Castro, Arenado, Story, Gonzalez, Beltran, Parra. Normally i dont second guess my line ups and do pretty well, but last night the stacks i took crapped out.
i never understand how you guys say brewers bullpen struggles. the last 30 plus innings between Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress only have 5 ER and 29Ks. The whole pen has a 2.16 ERA over the last 50 innings. That is 4th in the league. I would say it is a strength. 2.84 in the last 120 innings.
disregard my comments. I was looking at 2015 stats. outside of the big 3 not good.
lol np. i was trying to figure what you were talking about :p
What happened to the long ball picks article? Does anyone know?
So what’s an effective routine to making a decent lineup everyday? Often times I don’t have hours and hours to make a lineup and when I do I end up just second guessing my picks and end up with a terrible lineup really. I use BvP stats and picks from here or different sites but it’s really inconsistent. Past stats on players against the opposing pitchers don’t seem to be a viable option. I mean multiple players on the Angels lineup owned Nolasco in the past and they did absolutely nothing yesterday. I feel like I’m one step behind everyday.
What do you think of this lineup in a big tournament?
Finnegan, phegley, mark reynolds, carpenter, valencia, story, carlos gonzalez, chisenhall, beltran.
@NMF I’ve been extremely busy with all the other articles and have not had time. I will be able to put one up tomorrow.
Ortiz is batting a career .182 against Tillman with only 1 HR in 33 AB. I dont see him being a top option especially since he hasnt been hot lately.
Also Orioles are batting .272 against Price in his career. Not to mention he already got tagged earlier this year by them. Trumbo batting career .364 and Wieters batting .319 against Price. Even Crush Davis is batting .304 and he has homered in 5 straight games. He is $100 less than Ortiz. But that’s just me
Yeah. BvP isn’t something we ever consider because the sample sizes are too small to make any solid judgment. Just something we subscribe to.
Doug I subscribe to your Dfsr classic, my question is how do I upgrade to the pro with the optimizer?
I wanna buy this optimizer I jus don’t wanna spend that much what’s the difference between 15 or 30 dollar packages and is it really winning a lot daily or not winning
I know some don’t subscribe to BvP, but it can lead to an advantage of you have as decent sample size. Tonight, I’ll be rolling with Sal Perez, who is 13-20 with seven XBH. That’s a .650 BA and a 1.750 OPS.
And don’t discount those BvP numbers for Ortiz. 33 AB’s is actually a pretty large sample size. Only six hits for a .182 BA. I’ll probably be off Papi tonight. But what do I know?
Teheran at home is money tonight. Cash games and tourneys. Just got that feelin ya know.
Doug is the optimizer worth it
Was wondering the same thing myself…I see lots of post on here about how the optimizer crushed it last night. Never no details. I’m also wondering about this DK/FD Merger, and how it will affect states that can’t play on FD but can play on DK….How about it Doug Norrie???
Shin soo Choo man. he is 2.6K.. that’s insane.
Only if he plays tonight against lefty tho.
Not digging the David Price pick. I understand the Orioles strike out more than average, but they also lead the league in home runs and are more than capable of putting up huge numbers on any given night. Even if Price gets you 7 or 8 strike outs, they are mostly negated by the hits and runs scored. Price hasn’t had a SINGLE GAME with less than 5 hits given up this year and had several games this year where he has gotten blown up. I’d put him as a contrarian GPP pick if anything…certainly not the top pitcher choice of the day that you have him at. Even if he gets you 15-18 DK points, that is still a poor value at his price. His two best games this year came against Houston and Atlanta, so that doesn’t say much to me overall. I’d recommend using him very sparingly, though! I guess we’ll see what happens tonight.
I was thinking the same thing about Price. Usually the pitcher picks are rational and reasonable, but I can’t understand the Price pick.
Oh I think the rationale is sound. Again it’s a price and upside thing on him. Solid peripherals for his DK price and he was a chalky play of there. O’s bad v lhp and the and ML (-190) and expected run line (3.5) more than favor his matchup. I’m totally fine with the process.
My first time writing a post cause I’m always working but I couldn’t help but comment on all the Orioles vs Boston talk today. Price is for sure a risky pick if anyone follows these teams on a daily basis they would know it. He has upside for sure but the Orioles lead a ton of batting stats in the month of June and have always gave Price trouble dating back to his days with Tampa Bay. These games over the past few years have been low scoring close games and Tillman is doing great this year so Big Papi is risky also but he does turn things up a notch when it’s the Orioles in his ballpark for 1st place in the AL East. Going to be a great game folks!
I’ve won 250 in there days using the optimizer I think I’m going keep it
No A rod means good lineup spots for cheaper yanks. Question for u experts. I already have Ellsbury Castro and refsenyder. I love Valencia vs lefties of course. But Beasley batting 5th looks juicy also In coors field. What u think? Which one?
Yes though one thing is the Yankee run line’s dropped significantly over the course of the day. This really is just a bad lineup v a lhp. I know it’s Coors. But they are running 3/4 lefties at top of lineup. They are getting a run expectation about 20-25% more than normal though at prices about 30%+ more than normal. I’m just a little wary
Headley not Beasley lol
Thanks for the input Doug. I may take one or two out. System doesn’t love Colorado guys vs eovaldi either.
What do u think a good strategy is for cash tonight. Play a couple guys from each team or what? i have Blackmon and cargo ellisbury Castro and refsynder for coors guys and it makes a damn decent looking cash lineup with Teheran and price as my
Pitchers
Yeah system very bearish on this Coors game because of the prices mainly. I like all of those guys you mentioned though and think Castro will be pretty chalky.
David Price strikes out many. Did not mention he gives up homers, in the first inning.
Price on all $ lineups…2 runs given upon first. ????? Cmonnn!!
Brutal,. Have him all over cash on DK. This was the worry with him.
Price looks good just gave up a 300 foot Fenway HR