Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 6/12/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.

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Pitching Targets

Note: We discussed Jon Lester, Steven Matz, and Joe Ross in the Main Article. And will be going over a few more options below.

First things first - today is just an awful day for starting pitching. The following are punt plays for big tournaments only.

Dallas Keuchel FD 7700 DK 8600
Opponent - TB (Moore) Park - @TB
FD - 32.52 DK - 16.87

It's easy to forget now, but the Astros' lefty was one of the more dominating forces in all of baseball just last season - 2nd in the league in ground ball percentage at a ridiculous 61.7% clip, and posting the 5th best xFIP in the majors. Well that was last year and this is this year, you say. Fair enough. Except when you look at Keuchel's underlying peripheral stats, not THAT much has changed. Yes, his GB% has dipped to 57.4% - good for just 5th in the majors. And yes, his K/9 has dipped from 8.38 to 7.84. And yes, his BB/9 has climbed from 1.98 to 2.94. None of that is particularly inspiring. But it also doesn't mean he's a bad pitcher. His xFIP is a respectable 3.54, and while it seems clear that things aren't heading in the right direction, he can absolutely still put up a big game.

And this game could absolutely be a boom or bust situation. The Rays have struck out in 23.8% of their plate appearances vs. lefties this year. They've also posted the highest ISO, and 2nd highest OPS. Not for the faint of heart, here, but an interesting gamble nonetheless.

Julio Urias FD 6700 DK 5500
Opponent - SF (Peavy) Park - @SF
FD - 27.86 DK - 14.78
Well this article has escalated quickly. This is the very puntiest of punt plays. The Giants aren't an especially great match-up for right handed pitchers from a fantasy perspective - they don't strike out much, and while they're in the bottom third of the league in terms of wOBA vs. right handed pitching, they also play in a top 3 worst hitters' park. The good news for Urias is that he'll be pitching in the very park that has hurt that wOBA.

So what about Urias himself? Well, he's not your average, run of the mill middle of the year call up. He's a high pedigree prospect with electric strike out stuff, and his 2.88 FIP as a 19 year old in AAA this year is pretty damned impressive. He's got the stuff for 10 K/9 in the majors as he develops... but he's also 19 years old. Still, this smacks as a situation where a young call up with elite stuff catches a team napping, and I'm not ruling out a big game here. The real selling point with Urias, though, is his price. At these prices you can play every expensive guy from every other position... and if he's even serviceable at that point you might have a competitive GPP lineup on your hands.

Michael Pineda FD 7800 DK 6700
Opponent - DET (Fulmer) Park - @NYY
FD - 30.21 DK - 15.57

Essentially the same idea as Keuchel. The Tigers are almost a mirror image of what the Rays do against righties - they've struck out at the 7th highest rate while posting the 7th highest OPS. They are very righty heavy, and those righties can get a lot of swing and miss in their game when facing like-handed pitchers. Pineda, meanwhile, is sporting a train wreck of an ERA while putting up decent peripherals. He hasn't been going deep into games, but a lot of that is because he's been getting hit so hard. One thing is for sure on Pineda - you'll likely be the only one playing him. For what that's worth.
 

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