Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/12/16

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/12/16

 

Welcome to Sunday baseball! We have a full 15 game slate that spans from 1:00 to 7:00, which means you will need to pay strict attention to lineups as the day goes on. We have a few good pitchers, however, the pitcher position is slim overall. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on a bunch of other things that will help you succeed on this slate. Let's get to the top options of the day!

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PITCHER

Jon Lester FD 11400 DK 13400
Opponent - ATL (Gant) Park - @ATL
FD - 43.03 DK - 24.61

As I mentioned in the intro, the pitcher position as a whole is pretty bad today. We are going to touch on a few guys that get me excited, but other than that, the position is very barren. The guy that is going to be my top option in both tournaments and cash games is Jon Lester, and it is not close at all. He will be taking on Atlanta Braves team that ranks dead last against lefties in the league with a team wOBA of .260 and has exhibited a strikeout rate of 23.1%. Jon Lester on the other hand, has dominated both lefties and righties this season with a combined wOBA of .271. This game will be played in Turner Field which only helps Lester, as it ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of home runs in 2015. As noted, Lester is the top dog in all formats. Do not overthink this one.

Steven Matz FD 9800 DK 10700
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 30.95 DK - 16.06

Steven Matz is going to be our second option tonight and while I do have some confidence in him, he is going to limited to cash games on 2 pitcher sites as Lester will be in every one of my cash games on FanDuel. That being said, I love Matz in tournaments on all sites, including FanDuel where he is $1600 cheaper which will let you get some higher upside bats into your lineup. Matz is taking on the same Brewers team he faced off with a month ago and dominated them in 7 innings with 8 strikeouts and a win. That being said, we do not want to use one game to make a decision. Matz has been dominant this season with a .269 wOBA and a 9.10 K/9. Those peripherals are in line with the elite pitchers in baseball and I do look at him like that, given the inconsistency due to age. The Brewers are a team that provides upside due to the likes of Chris Carter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Aaron Hill, let alone the pitcher. Matz makes for a very interesting option tonight and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Joe Ross FD 8100 DK 9200
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @WSH
FD - 35.13 DK - 19.02

The final guy we are going to take a look at here is Joe Ross. Ross is another guy, like Matz, that faced his opposition recently and dominated them. In this case, Ross threw 7 innings with 5 strikeouts and got lucky enough to grab a win. The Phillies are a team I love to target as they lack upside as well as the ability to put up a huge with the lack of power and speed. Ross however, is a guy with a ton of upside as evidenced by his few big games he has produced over the last 2 seasons. While I definitely prefer Matz and Lester, Ross gives you the ability to pay up at other positions which may end up being the most important factor as there are a ton of offenses in great spots. Let's move on to some of those offenses.

CATCHER

Welington Castillo FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.23

Moving on to the bats and starting with catcher, we have Welington "Beef" Castillo. If you are wondering, he was nicknamed beef by his teammates due to his similarities with the dish Beef Wellington, not that it really matters. Castillo and the D-Backs continue the series with the Marlins at home and will take on another lefty tonight in Adam Conley. Conley had a great stretch earlier in the season but has since returned to earth with struggled in half of his last 6 starts. He will likely struggle again tonight against a right handed heavy team in Chase Field. Castillo will be in the 4th spot of the lineup and has mashed lefties in recent history. Dating back to 2013, Castillo has sported a .381 wOBA and 34.2% hard contact rate, both of which are spectacular for a catcher.

Yan Gomes FD 2500 DK 3000
Opponent - LAA (Huff) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.54 DK - 7.38

If you are looking to fade the chalk at catcher (never a bad idea in tournaments) , a guy you should take a long hard look at is Yan Gomes. While Gomes struggled last season, he has since returned to his usual form this season peripheral-wise. With a 6.7% HR/FB rate and a 51% pull rate, you can expect his power numbers to steadily increase as the season goes. While that is all great, the real reason we are target Gomes is because of the match up. He takes on a left hander named David Huff, who is arguably the worst current starting pitcher in the league. I am not going to go too far into Huff as it is very evident based on his .431 combined wOBA over the past few seasons. The Indians are a great option in all formats. Good luck David Huff, not really.

 

FIRST BASE

Joey Votto FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.68 DK - 9.65

As always, the first base position is absolutely stacked and the top option for me in cash games is going to the left hander Joey Votto. Votto has mashed right handers over the course of his career with a .411 wOBA and a 37.2% hard contact rate over the last 3 seasons. Votto and the Reds will be taking on Kendall Graveman, a right handed soft tosser that has struggled immensely against lefties. Dating back to last season, Graveman has given up a .348 wOBA and 4.82 xFIP to lefties. With this game being played in the Great American Ballpark, you can safely target Votto in both cash games and tournaments.

Anthony Rizzo FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - ATL (Gant) Park - @ATL
FD - 13.65 DK - 10.49

While Votto is going to be my top overall option at the position, Rizzo is right behind him. Rizzo will be facing off with a right hander in John Gant, who will be making his major league debut. Making a major league debut against the Cubs is never a fun thing and today will be no different. Rizzo has obliterated righties dating back to his debut with a .371 wOBA and an elite K/BB ratio. While this is not an ideal ballpark, Rizzo has the power to get one out anywhere. That being said, Rizzo does not rely on power to rack up fantasy points.

 

SECOND BASE

Neil Walker FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.2

While there is a plethora of offenses in good spots tonight, second base is by far the weakest position of all. While there are some great options, it does not compare to any of the other options. The first guy we are going to look at is Neil Walker. Walker and the Mets are taking on Zach Davies, a right handed pitcher that severely lacks the ability to get lefties out. Thus far into 2016, Davies has given up a .348 wOBA which is backed up by a 4.72 xFIP and a 38% hard contact rate (absolutely horrible for a pitcher). Those peripherals suggest even more regression and that could certainly occur against this Mets team.

DJ LeMahieu FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @COL
FD - 12.17 DK - 10.37

You are going to see a ton of Rockies here and I will save some analysis for the other guys. As for LeMahieu, he has hit the ball extremely well this season with a 12.5% K rate and a very high 35.2% hard contact rate. He will be taking on Christian Friedrich, who we will go in depth on at a later position, but he struggles. With this game being in Coors and LeMahieu likely hitting 2nd, he makes for a great play in all formats.

 

SHORTSTOP

Trevor Story FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @COL
FD - 13.14 DK - 10.67

Here is our second Colorado Rockies bat and we will touch on Christian Friedrich here. Friedrich has been absolutely pitiful dating back to 2012 with a .373 wOBA against right handers. While that may seem unsustainable for a starting pitcher in the majors, his peripherals tell a different story. With a 4.55 xFIP, 34.9% hard contact rate and a 23.4% line drive rate, his peripherals suggest he is a very bad pitcher. Story on the other hand, has certainly over performed this season but there is no doubt of his power, especially in Coors Field. The Rockies are the top option on this slate and Story is a great way to exposure to them at a position that lacks power.

Xander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 5500
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.13 DK - 9.67

Xander Bogaerts has gone absolutely insane over the last 2 games with respective FanDuel scores of 38.2 and 47.3. WOW! While we may not be able to get that again, I am definitely expecting a great game once again against a left hander Pat Dean. While Dean has been decent to start his career, he has held a .341 wOBA with peripherals suggesting even more decline. While the common fan looks at Target Field as a pitchers park, it is actually a positive park for right handed power. While Story is surely the superior option, Bogaerts comes in as a close 2nd in both cash games and tournaments.

 

THIRD BASE

Nolan Arenado FD 4600 DK 5500
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @COL
FD - 15.83 DK - 12.27

Nolan Arenado is arguably the best third baseman in the league and there is no conversation when he is in Coors Field. While there is not too much more to be said about this match up, we can touch on Nolan Arenado. Arenado has hit lefties to the tune of an insane .417 wOBA dating back to 2015 and that rediculous wOBA is backed up by a 41.5% hard contact rate and a 1.11 K/BB ratio. Make sure you have some exposure to Arenado and I would do your best to get him in at least 80% of your lineups.

 

OUTFIELD

Matt Kemp FD 3500 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @COL
FD - 11.53 DK - 9.09
Jon Jay FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @COL
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.57

While we haven't touched on the Padres up to this point, they are of course a great option in Coors Field against Eddie Butler. Butler has exhibited a .462 wOBA at home this season which is backed up by a 4.82 xFIP and the fact that "home" is hitter friendly Coors Field. Both Matt Kemp and Jon Jay have ht righties well this season, with Kemp hitting them at an elite rate. It is always a great idea to get exposure to a 12 over/under game and these 2 guys are great ways to do just that.

Ryan Raburn FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @COL
FD - 12.94 DK - 9.89

What more is there to say about this match up? Not much. Raburn is a specialist against southpaws as evidenced by his .362 wOBA against lefties dating back to 2012. Christian Friedrich is going to have a very tough time against the Rockies today and Raburn will likely be hitting in the top 6. While it does worry me that he will be pinch hit for, that is something that is very difficult to measure.

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Austyn Varney

View Comments

  • These recommendations would be good if you had a 100 thousand budget on draft kings.

  • Have not cashed in all season until i signed up for the optimizer, i have finished in the cash on DK every time since signing up! Thnks for the awesome info !

  • Playing Lester makes it nearly impossible to fill out a line up I can live with. DK makes you almost have to fade the best pitcher of the day in order to field a respectable team.

  • Can somebody tell me why a line-up would be different in a GPP as opposed to a Cash game?

    • Cash game everyone is picking them. 40%+ which is good for the 50/50 where majority rules. But, in that 50/50 look at the guy at fist place with the 30 point deficit to second. His line up had players that are .7% and 1.0% pick. He stands out above the rest with the underdogs "sleepers" and will blow up a GPP game. You want to be different than the rest in GPP.

    • Based on the likely usage of certain players in the games by other contestants, and whether or not its worth risking missing a big pick that everybody else makes

  • Ugh to go story or boegarts for the same price. Really thinking boegarts that dude is in the stratosphere and I don't think dean slows him down.

  • Yeah if you put in Lester on FD you are left with an average of $2950 for every other position. Almost impossible!