Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez fouls off a pitch on the way to striking out against San Diego Padres starting pitcher James Shields in the seventh inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 20, 2015, in Denver. San Diego won 10-4. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Welcome to the Colorado Rockies edition of our MLB picks. I promise there's plenty of options other than the Rockies' lineup but they are heavily featured on this Saturday slate. When you're done reading the article be sure to check back for our secondary articles (Stacks, Pitchers, News and Weather Report) published throughout the day. Good luck!
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Early Slate
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 41.43 DK - 23.14
One of the best pitchers in baseball against one of the most anemic offenses - I'm not getting cute and overthinking this one, Jake Arrieta is clearly my top option on both sites. Arrieta is destroying offenses, racking up nearly 10 K/9, positing a 0.96 WHIP, and holding opposing offenses to a .180 BAA. The Chicago ace did lose his last time out but he did strike out 12 batters in five innings of work. Add Arrieta's Cy Young caliber season to the Braves MLB worst .230 batting average and you have the staple of most cash lineups on Saturday.
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @WSH
FD - 33.55 DK - 17.57
Tanner Roark gets a double bonus, he's out of the Great American Smallpark and now he gets to face the Phillies. Roark was having a steady season until he ran into the Reds in Cincinnati but I like him to return to form against Philadelphia. We just mentioned Arrieta gets the league's worst batting average well the Phillies aren't much better with a team .231 average. Roark has gotten the best of Philly so far in 2016 with two starts for a combined two runs over 14 innings, 10 strikeouts, and just six hits. A much less expensive option than Arrieta, you can definitely consider Roark in all formats.
Late Slate
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @LAA
FD - 28.87 DK - 15.46
You need to look at Matt Shoemaker's recent form on this one as his numbers are still trending downwards after an April that was the equivalent of repeatedly banging your head against the wall (9.15 ERA). He's back on point after a 2-1 record and 3.28 ERA in May as well as 14 K's over 14.2 innings of work in his first two outings of June. Cleveland's offense has also given them headaches on the road, hitting just .222 (29th in MLB) and ranking eighth in strikeouts away from Progressive Field.
Also Consider: Jose Fernandez (MIA at ARI) - On an absolute tear but still a little expensive for my taste.
CATCHER
Early Slate
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.83
Russell Martin is coming off a solid night, at least 1-for-1 with two walks at time of writing, and has four homers in the last two weeks. Mike Wright is coming off of his best start of the year but has struggled quite a bit in 2016. The Blue Jays get their second look at Wright this year and Martin's does have 20 homers against righties since last year, making him a good plug at catcher.
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.99 DK - 6.89
Even with his recent struggles at the plate, Miguel Montero has been finding his way on base. The Cubs' catcher makes a better play on FanDuel with a price tag at $2,400 and a much better track record against right handers. To be honest, I'm relying on the projection system on this one. And for what it's worth Montero did face Wisler once last season and that ended with a three-run blast.
Late Slate
Opponent - LAD (Kazmir) Park - @SF
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.25
I'm not running out on Buster Posey yet and the best part is the sub-par season (by his standards) are keeping the price down. He owns lefties with a .316 batting average and .374 wOBA over the last two seasons. Posey and the Giants returned home Friday night after a long road trip and Saturday night face Scott Kazmir again after roughing him up back in April. The price and match-up just feel right to roster Posey.
Early Slate
Opponent - SD (Johnson) Park - @COL
FD - 13.94 DK - 10.65
Well, this will be the start of a long list of Rockies..do I really need to explain why? Aside from playing at Coors Field, the Rockies take on Erik Johnson, who has made just two starts in 2016 and has an ERA just shy of seven and a.304 BAA. Getting to Mark Reynolds - he's off to a slow start in June but that's probably because the Rockies have been away from our favorite ballpark. He's hitting .295 at home and as I mentioned, Reynolds is the first in a laundry list of Rockies we are going to cover.
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.86
If you want to spend up at first base, Joey Votto at another super-friendly ball park may be the way to go. Votto against righties is always a good choice, boasting a .955 OPS and a .404 wOBA. Votto will step in against Kendall Graveman, his low strikeout rate, and a .303 BAA. I know Votto has had a down 2016 but a player of his caliber is always dangerous and the peripherals are right to roll with him on Saturday.
Late Slate
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.18
Adam Lind has four homers in two weeks and 26 long balls versus righties since 2015. He gets his third look at Colby Lewis this season, which should be a huge advantage for the Mariners lineup. This is another case of keeping it simple: check the numbers, look at the cost, plug Lind into your lineup.
Early Slate
Opponent - SD (Johnson) Park - @COL
FD - 12.87 DK - 10.96
The second Rockies' player of the slate - I promise not to keep a running tally. DJ LeMahieu absolutely loves Coors Field, hitting .348 this season along with a 1.016 OPS. The Colorado two-hitter will be an integral part of what will be the most popular, and safest stack, of Saturday against Erik Johnson.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.37 DK - 8.77
Neil Walker and his career-year picks up Saturday with plenty of rest after a day off. Walker is simply a steady Major Leaguer with splits around .275 home/away and left/right over the last two years. He has shown power from both sides of the plate this year and any time the opposing pitcher has an ERA close to seven, a batter's eyes get wide - similar to us DFS junkies. Walker is a better play on FanDuel with the price range getting a bit to high for my liking on DK - even though I'm a Mets fan.
Late Slate
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.93
Robinson Cano is on a hot streak with three straight multi-hit games heading into last night. He has a low strikeout right against righties as well as a .903 OPS and .379 wOBA since 2015. If you like pitcher vs. hitter stats, Cano has a lifetime .333 average against Colby Lewis, including a homer earlier this season.
Early Slate
Opponent - SD (Johnson) Park - @COL
FD - 12.86 DK - 10.44
Trevor Story has hits in eight of his last nine games and is another piece in the Coors Field + Erik Johnson slot machine. Going back to 2015, Story has handled righties well with an .848 OPS and .354 wOBA. I can only say the same thing so many ways. If you can afford Story, you probably won't regret rostering him.
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @TB
FD - 10.09 DK - 8.17
Brad Miller broke a three-game hitless streak on Friday with a 2-for-4 and 1 RBI showing. Mike Fiers has been atrocious on the road in 2016 with a 7.20 ERA and .345 BAA. The projection system likes Miller, consider playing him if you want to go cheaper at shortstop.
Late Slate
Opponent - PIT (Liriano) Park - @PIT
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.77
The Cardinals have been producing plenty of runs as of late and Aledmys Diaz remains comfortably seated in the two-hole. Diaz did see Francisco Liriano earlier this year and posted a 2-for-3, one run scored stat line. Diaz is not as good against southpaws but he does maintain a low strikeout rate and is a key piece of one of the better offenses in baseball.
Early Slate
Opponent - SD (Johnson) Park - @COL
FD - 15.81 DK - 12.25
Nolan Arendao went deep last night and has an extra base hit in three of his last four games. I'll skip the repetitive and give you some peripherals with Arenado's .923 OPS, .386 wOBA, and 51 homers against righties since 2015. I think that satisfies this edition of "Play the Rockies".
Also Consider: Trevor Plouffe (MIN vs. BOS)
Late Slate
Opponent - PIT (Liriano) Park - @PIT
FD - 8.99 DK - 6.95
Back to the Cardinals for an affordable option, especially on FanDuel, with Jhonny Peralta. Peralta is 6-for-15 with a homer and two doubles in four games after finally starting his season following a long DL stint. The veteran has settled right in with the St. Louis offense and now is the time to buy-low, while it lasts, with Peralta.
Early Slate
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.54
OK, I know I'm a Mets fan, but how crazy was the end of that game last night? What happened to fundamentals? Michael Conforto wasn't a part of that game as he continues to slowly work his way out of a slump. We covered Peralta's struggles earlier and Conforto excels against righties with a .902 OPS and .380 wOBA since 2015. You never know when a guy is going to break out and the projection system (and honestly, my heart) thinks it may just be tomorrow for Conforto.
Opponent - SD (Johnson) Park - @COL
FD - 16.56 DK - 12.77
Opponent - SD (Johnson) Park - @COL
FD - 12.92 DK - 10.73
Did you think there wouldn't be any Rockies here? Of course you didn't. Carlos Gonzales has an outstanding .410 wOBA and four extra base hits in the last week. CarGo's name recognition (and insane numbers) makes him the more obvious play of the pair. Gerrardo Parra has struggled the last few weeks but with the gas can he faces and a line of monsters in front of him, he should have ample opportunity to pay off his salary.
Late Slate
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.34
Seth Smith makes for a good value play for your late slate lineups on Saturday with a .346 wOBA against righties since 2015. Personally, I won't be loading up against Colby Lewis but the projection system has Smith as a viable option.
Also Consider: Matt Holiday (STL at PIT)
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View Comments
I wish Roark were on the early slate on DK(where does the 8700 DK salary come from?). Arrietta is almost a must start and there are absolutely zero viable mid-range salary guys to use at SP2 to fit some Coors bats in. I was looking at Straily, but I hate the park. Even rolling with Archer or Quintana at SP1, there is really not much one can do without ending up with a potential blow up at SP2.
Exactly. Right now system throwing out Fiers at $6200 which would be a grin-and-bear-it situation that I'm not comfortable with. Agreed on Arrieta being close to a must. I'm worried that system won't come to that conclusion on DK where the win counts for almost nothing and his price tag is steep.
Arrieta or COL stack in early slate? 50/50
That's the big question. There's a chance for both but we are going to need a little batting lineup shakeup somewhere to get some punt plays in. For safety I'd got Arrieta. I'm working on modeling out for situations like this. Basically the Colorado piece of things throws off models because it takes the projected mean off a total outlier in terms of run production.
The optimizer Better for cash games or gpp?
How much variance it put in optimals.
Duffy or Verrett as SP2 on DK with Arrieta as SP1?
Graveman not pitching today, Mengden going. He's still in optimizer. Does that improve Cin bats? Also thoughts on Duffy for KC today?
Yuck. Sorry about that. I had fixed it before but then our schedule feed came through and overrode it. I corrected
Does anybody know why Tanner Roark isn't available on draft kings?
Am I crazy for leaning towards Fernandez over Arrieta? Since the start of June, Arizona has been a little worse than Atlanta, but has struck out 29 more times in that period. I feel like Arrieta is the safer play and everyone is going to be on him, but more upside w/ Fernandez.
No not crazy. I really like Archer today as well. No Correa or Altuve in that Astros lineup
Altuve batting 3rd
Ah yeah. My eyes glossed right over 2nd spit, didn't see his name and assumed he wasn't playing. I stare at batting lineups so damn much I think it's like embedded in me
FYI - Lind and Smith are a combined 4-27 with ZERO XBH and only three walks against Colby Lewis lifetime. Just sayin.
Batter vs. pitcher stats don't normalize over such a small sample size, so I'm not concerned.
Duffy ... 7ks so far!
Was there ever a doubt?