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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/10/16
Welcome back to another TGIF edition of our daily fantasy picks. After a Thursday with little to no safe pitching options we are blessed with plenty of aces(Kershaw, Strasburg, Sale, Cueto, Kluber) on Friday night. There is also some great spots to target hitters with games in Coors Field, Yankee Stadium, Chase Field, and Miller Park. Let's get started!
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PITCHER
Stephen Strasburg FD 12000 DK 13500
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @WSH
FD - 43.63 DK -
After a night where Gio was the top pitcher in a GPP slate we have a decision to make between two aces this evening. I really don't think you can go wrong with either Kershaw or Strasburg but I lean the latter who comes with more upside in a much better matchup. Strasburg has the higher K rate(11.39 K/9) and gets a much better matchup vs. the Phillies who rank 28th in wOBA(.288) and strikeout 21.7% of the time vs. right handed pitching. He apparently came away from his last start with a calf strain but it was not serious enough for management to keep him from making this start. He is in a great spot at home to pick up the win and record yet another double digit strikeout game(has done it in four of his last six starts).
Matt Harvey FD 8700 DK 8300
Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @MIL
FD - 34.65 DK - 18.69
The Dark Knight is back after a rough stretch to start the season where he went 3-7 with a 6.08 ERA. He was tagged with the loss in his last start in a pitchers duel against Jose Fernandez but has only given up one earned run in his last two starts. His strikeout rate(7.08 K/9) is the lowest of his career which could be attributed to the 1 MPH drop in velocity on the fastball over his career average. He will get a great shot to improve on his win and K totals on Friday when he faces the Brewers who strike out(26.3%) more than any other team vs. right handed pitching. The price is slowly rising but he still presents tremendous value in the mid $8K range on both sites.
Jason Hammel FD 9600 DK 11100
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @ATL
FD - 37.16 DK - 24.17
The Cubs pitching staff has been the best in baseball with a 2.56 ERA coming into tonight. You could literally feel safe rolling out a Cubs pitcher day in and day out. All five of them have a sub 3.00 ERA 7.5+ K/9 rates. Hammel is coming off a win vs. the D Backs where he pitched seven innings giving up just one hit(two run homer) while striking out six. He has now given up two earned runs or less in nine of his 11 starts this season. The Cubs and Hammel get one of the best matchups of the day vs. the last place Braves who rank dead last in wOBA(.275) vs. right handed pitching.
CATCHER
Welington Castillo FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.56 DK - 8.12
Get used to seeing us pick on the Justin Nicolino tonight. I am shocked he still has a starting job. His strikeout rate(3.57 K/9) is embarrassingly low for a major league pitcher and it is actually up from his 12 games started last year(2.80 K/9). Castillo comes at a discount from the top options with just as much or more upside as he mashes left handed pitching. In 56 at bats vs. southpaws he has .452 wOBA and 184 wRC+. Heis the highest projected catcher on the day on both sites and is safe in all formats.
Stephen Vogt FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.78
Like Castillo, he hits in a prime spot of his team's lineup and makes a great play in any format in almost any matchup. Vogt has been hitting .342 over hte past two weeks with a 130 wRC+ and will get a decent matchup vs. Anthony DeSclafini who will be making his first start of the year after spending the last two months on the 60 day DL with an oblique strain. He is coming off a 2015 campaign where he made 31 starts and finished with a 9-13 record and less than impressive 4.05 ERA and 3.97 xFIP.
FIRST BASE
Paul Goldschmidt FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.51 DK - 10.5
You can't discuss stacking D Backs vs. left handed pitching without starting the conversation with Goldy. He has a career .429 wOBA and 172 wRC+ vs. southpaws and this could be one of the worst he will face all season. As I mentioned above, Nicolino is not going to scare anyone with his 88 MPH fast ball and it shows wit his mid three K/9 rate. Goldy has been on fire lately with a .503 wOBA and 219 wRC+ in the last two weeks and is the top play at 1B tonight.
David Ortiz FD 4000 DK 5500
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 13.97 DK - 10.49
Hanley Ramirez FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.69
Both Red Sox first basemen make terrific plays tonight vs. the Twins. David Ortiz has been the first half American League MVP hitting .338 with an elite 200 wRC+. He is a patient hitter(12.8% BB rate) which could help get him on base even more as Kyle Gibson has a extremely high walk rate(5.23 BB/9) and awful strikeout rate(4.79 K/9). So far in 2016, Gibson has given up 14 earned runs in just 20.2 innings pitched. If you put a lineup together and can't afford Big Papi there is a big savings opportunity to drop down to Hanley. He has seen a dip in the power(4 HR in 2016) as the FB rate has dropped and the GB rate has elevated but he has also added 10 doubles after hitting just 12 all of last year and has already recorded 33 RBi and 29 runs scored.
SECOND BASE
DJ LeMahieu FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @COL
FD - 11.78 DK - 10.04
The Rockies returned home to Coors Field on Thursday afternoon to fcae the Pirates in a make up game and took care of business with a big 11-5 win. On Friday they will open a series vs. their division rivals the San Diego Padres who will throw out struggling Andrew Cashner to start game one. Cashner has pitched to a horrible 4.89 xFIP this season in large part to his 3.76 BB/9 and low 5.98 K/9 rate. He has given up three or more earned runs in six straight starts and has really struggled vs. right handed hitters this season with a .405 wOBA against. Lock and load on the Rockies.
Johnny Giavotella FD 2400 DK 2200
Opponent - CLE (Kluber) Park - @LAA
FD - 7.54 DK - 6.11
With all the great high priced pitching options you are going to need a punt play in there somewhere. Giavotella faces a perceived tough matchup in Corey Kluber but he has been prone to a big blow up as he has given up four or more earned runs in five or his 12 starts this season. In the low $2K price range you don't need much from Giavotella to pay off his salary.
SHORTSTOP
Trevor Story FD 3400 DK 5200
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @COL
FD - 11.77 DK - 9.56
After being dropped to 7th in the order near the end of May he has crept back up to 5th where he has seems to have settled in. He is priced up as the most expensive shortstop tonight on DraftKings but presents a tremendous amount of value as the 10th most expensive on FanDuel. His average is never going to be elite like his power potential as he strikes out a ton(33.6%) but shouldn't have an issue vs. Cashner who is striking out less than six batters per nine innings.
Javier Baez FD 2800 DK 3100
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.77 DK - 7.9
If you are looking for value at shortstop on DraftKings the projection system loves both Cubs options tonight. Baez has been the hotter hitter as of late and is coming off a monster four hit game on Wednesday and has pushed his average to .272 for the season. He doesn't get the value from a to six spot in the lineup but is an affordable option that can provide a nice floor for cash games.
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado FD 4300 DK 5600
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @COL
FD - 14.48 DK - 11.22
You guessed it. Nolan Arenado tops the 3B rankings today playing at home in Coors Field. He is having another monster season with a .289/.364/.587 slash line with 18 home runs and an impressive 136 wRC+. It helps he gets half his games in the best hitters park in the league where he has a .447 wOBA and 151 wRC+. If you can find enough value at other positions paying up for Arenado is a no doubter.
Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @ATL
FD - 13.52 DK - 10.46
Fading Coors Field could is always a risky proposition but when when it works you usually get a solid ownership level on whoever you choose. Having them perform is the next challenge. If you do decide to fade Coors I am leaning towards Kris Bryant as my next favorite third basemen tonight. His numbers are very similar to Arenado's as he is slashing .284/.362/.524 with 14 home runs and a 139 wRC+. He won't get to hit in an elite hitters park but gets a great matchup vs. Bud Norris who is making his second start since returning to the rotation. In five starts earlier in the year he allowed 22 earned runs and six long balls.
OUTFIELD
Carlos Gonzalez FD 4300 DK 5400
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @COL
FD - 15.16 DK - 11.69
Gerardo Parra FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @COL
FD - 11.83 DK - 9.83
Back to Coors Field for a minute. There are going to be a ton of different combinations of the Rockies stack tonight in a great matchup vs. Andrew Cashner. Cargo will be the chalk hitting cleanup and fits no matter if you go a top four stack, two through five stack or my favorite will be the three through six stack tonight which will include Parra. Cargo should be well rested after getting a day off on Thursday and will be looking to build on his impressive slash line(.296/.346.531). Like you would expect Cargo is much better at home with a .413 wOBA and 128 wRC+. Parra has also been much better at Coors Field with a .365 wOBA as compared to a .245 wOBA on the road.
Giancarlo Stanton FD 3100 DK 4800
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.29
Just to make it very clear before we go any further. This is a contrarian GPP play only. He is over priced on DraftKings but comes with tremendous upside for the price on FanDuel. He is striking out at an alarming rate(34%) but is still hitting with power and is somewhat patient at the plate with a 13.4% walk rate. He will get a park boost on Friday as the Marlins travel to Chase Field and he gets a great matchup vs. Patrick Corbin who is dealing up a horrendous 19.4% HR/FB rate. He will be extremely low owned with all the great options tonight and could easily be on a winning GPP lineup.
Brandon Drury FD 2000 DK 3400
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.78 DK - 6.96
When it comes to strong hitters parks and teams facing weak pitching it is usually impossible to find punt value. We have just that tonight with Drury over on FanDuel. If he is in the lineup he will get a great opportunity to crush his PTS/$ expectation as he will face Nicolino who we discussed earlier is an awful pitcher who shouldn't be in the majors. He is safe in all formats on FanDuel but should be reserved for a contrarian D Backs stack on DraftKings.
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Mike Pelfrey day! Pelfriday
Finished 3rd and 4th in a mini sac fly and should’ve been first and 3rd if not for cano s second homer. Appreciate the work you guys do. People complain about wrong things and typos. But at the end of the day, your picks are usually spot on. So those reading this, stop caring about the typos that can be fixed and the DFS mistakes that can’t be fixed.
Finished 2nd in a gpp last night you guys are awesome I love what you guys do thank you so much!
Spot on Zac
Kiki for $220 on fanduel…. Def a mistake but might be able to make it work to my advantage if he starts?
Ha yeah. Noticed that last night. Clearly a mistake but they aren’t going to correct it. If he is playing he’s a must start even if hitting ninth. It’s actually kind of close (at a 90% discount lol) even if you thought he was going to pinch hit, but not to the point where I’d play him off the bench.
Hit 6th last night Cano had me jumping all the way to the top! up over $600.00 over last week! I don’t care if you spell cano CANU thanks for the info!
A NYY/DET or NYY/ARI stacks looks pretty appealing as a way to fade coors for those that are brave or crazy
I like both of those a lot. For tournaments fading Coors is the way to go I think.
I put him in $220 for. A possible 0 ? If paid for much worse lol
What’s with all the messed up prices on fanduel? Lots of guys at 2000 that shouldn’t be. Waiting for potential fixes from them to fill lineups.
Prices aren’t going to change. Who is standing out to you in that 2K range?
Agreed Doug, unfortunately the $ savings are not that great. Beltran and Ellsbury are up around $5k on DK. Prices have creeped up on DET/ARI as well. Would’ve been really nice stacks at last weeks prices, lol.
I may be asking a silly question: but when you use the term “fading” what does that mean?
Not silly at all. It is basically a gambling term meant to signify going against a common or popular strategy. If a large portion of a pool is going one way (Coors) you fade that outcome in the hopes of gaining separation.
Doug, it’s just the Giants and Enrique Hernandez from what I can tell. When I looked earlier I thought it was more than that, but I was wrong.
How do you feel about Jon gray on fd ? I understand the risk in cash because everyone else will be trotting out Kershaw and Stras but sd is a bad team and can’t hit it out of the park if they are striking out
It says Tyler Duffey is pitching for the twins and not Gibson, does Sox’s hitters still apply if that’s in fact is true?
Is it just me or is Ryan Flaherty not no DK? Wanted to play him tonight after seeing he’s homered twice against Estrada
Loving Jon Gray today. GPP play of the day
Yeah Nick brings him up in the podcast which I’m posting shortly
You can also trot out Sale, Kluber, Cueto and dare I say Harvey. It’s not worth the risk going with Gray!!!
Anyone live in Minnesota I’m peppered with Red Sox and this weather has me worried looking for someone with boots on the ground let me know what’s up w Minnesota weather. I also think gray nice play 12k last time against San Diego. Thanks
Hot and humid in St Paul right now
Haha thanks stpaul. Sounds like thunderstorm weather I’ll keep eye on it
I’m thinking seriously about rolling out Mccullers and Harvey in my cash games because I want to get a at least gonzo Blackmon or arenado in there with a couple other cheaper Colorado bats. McCullers walks a lot of guys but Tampa is near the bottom in almost every category vs RHP. If there wasn’t a game in the Rockies then I would start Strasburg. What do u all think about this decision. System loves Cole but hate the matchup
I’m new to the baseball world. Throwing this out as a cash lineup. I play on fantasyaces since my state has shut down DK and FD. Anyone care to offer some thoughts? Any guys in this lineup that are just plain stupid plays?
P Clayton Kershaw 7,900.00
P Jason Hammel 6,150.00
C Stephen Vogt 4,200.00
2B/SS Jurickson Profar 4,000.00
2B/SS Adeiny Hechavarria 4,000.00
1B/3B Anthony Rizzo 5,450.00
1B/3B Paul Goldschmidt 5,400.00
OF Carlos Gonzalez 5,800.00
OF Ben Revere 4,150.00
OF Marcell Ozuna 4,500.00
Util James Loney 3,400.00
Thanks
I like the suggestions but failing to cash. Lineup construction? Help!
If you take like at 220 you will be able to afford a couple big bats and Kershaw. Even if he doesn’t play it still might be worth it especially in cash games
*Kike
Jon gray, kershaw, kluber, mccann, mccann, ianetta, votto, ortiz, miggy, reynolds, Freddie freeman, Flaherty, Pedro, alcides, cain, markaksis, jones, and bruce. Avoid strasburg, vmart, hosmer, stanton,
I know it’s Kershaw but can’t ever remember FanDuel pricing him like a reverse Coors Field. The entire SanFran roster is $2K each on FanDuel.
Yeah last game against Kershaw they had Braves guys priced in the $1500 range
What do u think of posey in that price ?
San Fran Dodgers. 5.5 run total wow lowest I can remember in years
It’s insanely low.
Did you guys use the projected line ups? I lost like $90 last night on those. Only cashes had cano.
I would replace Rizzo he is 0 for 10 vs Norris unfortunately
That sample size is too small to base any decision on
Will myers or paul goldschmit as 1B for fanduel cash games?
Goldie and it’s not close for me
Is there a podcast for today or can I just not find it. I freaking love y’all’s podcast I listen to it every time it’s up after work.
Yep it’s there. Here is the link – https://www.dailyfantasysportsrankings.com/2016/06/10/daily-fantasy-baseball-podcast-for-draftkings-and-fanduel-61016/
Thanks much
Dang, Stanton back in the optimizer!!! Was 0-5 last night with 4 strikeouts and grounded into a double play. 5 at bats = 6 outs
Nah he’s not showing up right now. Miami run line dropped some. I’ve downgraded his projection as much as I feel comfortable without legit injury news. If he’s there at all now it may be correct-ish
Thinking about purchasing optimizer…how often does it work? Is it for cash or gpp?
and Hernandez is in the lineup. Can we really afford to pass up on him at $220? a walk, single or HBP and he’s already paying like 14x.
He’s a must play unless you think he’s in a situation 90% worse than league average or something like that.
Yeah that’s what I’m thinking. Anything he does is gravy it’s what you do with that “free” $1800 that counts. Guessing most people will use it to pay up for Stras.
Kirk, optimizer kills the 50/50 on a nightly!! Have seen it in the money in GPP as well but built more for cash games.
Thanks Cody…will give it a try.
The one oddity I’m seeing today through research is that I’ve found almost NO mention of Cubs bats yet they are one of the biggest favorites on the day?
I just went to adjust my late fanduel line up and Hernandez is back up to 2200.
Plugging in Kike as fast as possible. Wow, that was fun.
Rebubula, FanDuel realized the error before the 9 and 10pm games were available so they adjusted. 7pm games were available last night and people got those picks in so they couldn’t adjust for those games.
What happened to Cole???
I had Karns last night and he got yanked although he was pitching fine…now Cole? I am just snakebit right now.
Rockies stacks just got interesting. Cashner done after one batter…
Doug, I may have asked this before but do y’all update the optimizer throughout the night?? See the last update was at 7:24. That going to stick for the 9:40 and 10pm games??
Yup we do. There hasn’t been any line movement or BL changes. The only thing different is Kike’s price but I can’t change that because of the way I’m currently pulling the rest of the data through the FD API
Well, Kike isn’t showing up in the optimizer at $220! Definitely wouldn’t be there at $2200! All good then!!!
It’s some no name every night on the late night games! Sure would have been nice to have Lee show up on the radar somewhere!! After paying up for Kershaw, don’t know how I didn’t get his cheap price into a single lineup. Ugh! Frustration once again
Used optimizer in late night slate ….stacking Az …. Cashed.
On the late slate of games I think he as in like the fourth lineup or something like that. I had him somewhere (but very little) only reason it rings familiar.