Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Personnel
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @COL
FD - 11.78 DK - 10.04
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @COL
FD - 14.48 DK - 11.22
The projection system is really bullish on the Rockies tonight vs. the Padres and Andrew Cashner. We listed them in the article, talked about the Rockies as a top stack and when we run the optimizer LeMahieu shows up in all 25 lineups with Arenado right behind, showing up in 23. It makes sense as the game is in Coors with a crazy high total of 12 runs with the Rockies making up close to 7 of that total(highest of any team by far today). Don't over think this one today in cash games. You don't necessarily need both in your lineup if you like to spread the love around but it is recommended.
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @TB
FD - 34.8 DK - 22.92
Looking at the FanDuel projections and optimizer tool we notice it absolutely loves McCullers at a price below $9K tonight. He has big strikeout upside with a K rate above 12 in five starts this season. The ERA is a it scary at 4.23 but his 3.28 xFIP and extremely high .377 BABIP suggest positive regression is on it way. He gets a matchup vs. the Rays who rank second to last in average(.230) vs. right handed pitching while striking out 25.1% of the time. If you are stacking the above Rockies tonight, McCullers gives you the salary relief needed.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.95 DK - 10.76
Looking on the DraftKings side of things the first thing that stands out to me is the value in Bryce Harper. He is the 17th most expensive option which absolutely blows my mind. Due to this salary he shows up in all 25 optimized lineups on the DraftKings page making him an Every Lineup Guy tonight. His elite walk rate(Barry Bonds effect where noone will pitch to him) and decent K rate are on par with his 2015 totals but the average(.257) has fallen off dramatically. Some can attributed to his mental approach as he is getting walked so much but some can also be attributed to bad luck. His .254 BABIP so far in 2016 is 100 points lower than his total from the past two seasons(.369 in 2015 and .352 in 2014). The matchup is also favorable as Jeremy Hellickson is pitching to a 17.2% HR/FB rate in 2016. I am going to go ahead and call a Harper dong tonight(that sounds funny!).
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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