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TPC Southwind - Memphis, TN
Par 70 - 7,239 Yards
William McGirt became the latest first time winner on PGA Tour this past weekend and did on a pretty big stage. He beat out Jon Curran on the second playoff hole to take home the hardware and also held off the likes of Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, J.B. Holmes, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, and many other top players in the world. It had been a very long road to this point in his 165 start career that has seen him bounce back and forth between many different tours along the way. We will be seeing a lot more of McGirt in the future as the win gave him a three year exemption on tour. As always, if you missed the highlights from the weekend you can check them out below.
This week the PGA Tour travels to Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. It's horrible timing(after the Memorial and right before the US Open) gives us a pretty weak field this week. The top players in the field are Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and Brooks Koepka as they look to tune up their games for the US Open next week at Oakmont.
TPC Southwind is a Par 70 setup that stretches 7,239 yards. There is no specific profile we are going to be targeting this week as a wide range of players have won here. No matter if you are targeting bombers or accuracy players it will be important to look at Good Drive % as it gives us a read int o the the players that can get their way the green or fringe in regulation when missing the fairway. I will also be looking at Par 4 and Par 5 Scoring average, and I have also been running some models and lineups based off the new Strokes Gained stats on the cheatsheet. When constructing cash game lineups I look closely at Scoring Average before the cut and for GPP's I want a player who can excel with the putter on Sunday.
Below is a list of the key stats I am using in my model on the cheatsheet this week:
I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.
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**Don't forget to throw your regular lineups in some satellites this week as it is the last chance before next weeks Millionaire Maker for the U.S. Open**
High End Targets ($9,000+)
Dustin Johnson
Vegas Odds - 7
Draftkings - $12,800
Fantasy Aces - $6,100
DJ won this event back in 2012 but left a lot of DFS people(myself included) with a bad taste in their mouths last year when he withdrew after just nine holes. I am trying hard to not let it affect my decision making as he comes into this years event in good form and tops my weighted stat ranking model. He hasn't won since the Cadillac last season but has lurked all season with five Top 5's and seven Top 10 finishes. Not only does he gain strokes off the tee with his distance but he also ranks very high in strokes gained approach. This deadly combination is the reason he leads the tour in Birdie or Better percentage. I will only be using him in GPP's this week due to the high price and the US Open heavy on his mind.
Brooks Koepka
Vegas Odds - 14/1
Draftkings - $11,100
Fantasy Aces - $5,800
He is coming off the playoff loss at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago and should have had enough time to shake disappointment. The price seems a little high for Brooks but every golfer in the field has seen an increase in salary due to the extremely weak field. Brooks projects really well for me this week as he is elite when looking at Strokes Gained Off the Tee(6th), Driving Distance(9th), GIR Other than Fairway(7th), Par 4 Scoring(9th), and Birdie or Better %(17th). He played here for the first time in 2014 finishing T19 and came back last year looking primed to win going into the weekend but ended up finishing in a tie for 3rd. He should very well be a factor again on Sunday afternoon.
Charles Howell III
Vegas Odds - 45/1
Draftkings - $9,400
Fantasy Aces - $5,300
After the top couple options the field gets really thin with over priced guys who should be in the mid range. Chucky three sticks has a few things going for him to make into the 3 slot in my upper tier picks. First of all he is a cut maker. He did miss back to back cuts at the Wells Fargo and PLAYERS but has made 17 of 20 cuts this year with five Top 10's and 13 Top 25 finishes. While he missed the cut here last year, he made five straight at the St. Jude before that including a 3rd place finish in 2011. He ranks fairly high in all the Strokes Gained stats highlighted by 17th rank Around the Green. He can bomb the ball 300+ yards and hits a ton of greens and when he misses the fairway off the tee(186th in accuracy) he still manages to hit the greens in regulation as he ranks 17th in GIR from other than the fairway. He profiles great for this tournament and he is one of the few players I don't mind over paying for.
Also Consider - Ryan Palmer, Gary Woodland
David Hearn
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $8,400
Fantasy Aces - $4,950
Headlinging the mid tier picks is my Canadian of the week. I have been riding Hearn for about two months now as he is playing some of his best golf. He has made three straight and five of his last six cuts with finishes of T27, T17, T28, T20, T13 and of course the missed cit at the Wells Fargo. He makes a great cash game play as he doesn't just make the cuts when he is playing well, but he also gets Top 30 finishes which have been huge value as his price has been in the mid $6K-$7K range. The price has jumped up due to the field but he still makes a good play as he comes back to the St. Jude having made four of his last five cuts here. He is ranked 135th off the Tee but 14th in Good Drive %, 34th in GIR and 4th in Proximity.
Chad Campbell
Vegas Odds - 80
Draftkings - $7,800
Fantasy Aces - $5,000
When dipping below the $8K range you definitely are not going to like everything about a player. You have to pick and choose what is important and this week, more than ever, go with your gut. When looking over this mid range I gravitate to Chad Campbell for a couple reasons. First is his course history. He has made six straight cuts here including two Top 10 finishes in his last four years(T8 last year). He is also coming into this tournament with some nice momentum after a T10 at the Dean & Deluca Invitational and a T12 the week before at the AT&T Byron Nelson. I consider him a safe play in any format this week.
Hudson Swafford
Vegas Odds - 100/1
Draftkings - $7,400
Fantasy Aces - $4,800
Swafford comes back to the St. Jude Classic after finishing 29th last season and comes in having made four straight cuts. He lacks upside in loaded fields but this is nowhere near a top end field of golfers this week. He ranks 27th in Off the Tee and 6th in Driving Distance which should give him a bit of an advantage and the long Par 4's(ranks 44th) and the Par 5's(ranks 41st). He hits a ton of greens as well which explains his 12th ranking in Ball Striking. He is one guy in the mid range I feel is a nice value and can outscore his salary this week.
Also Consider - Patrick Rodgers, Wil Wilcox
Justin Hicks
Vegas Odds - 140/1
Draftkings - $6,500
Fantasy Aces - $4,500
There really isn't much to like at all this week in the bottom tier. Some guys have decent form and awful stats and course history, others have some history but no form. Close your eyes and throw a dart. Ok, don't that although it might work. Justin Hicks is by no means a safe play but is coming off his first Top 10 finish(T10 at the AT&T Byron Nelson) since the RBC Canadian Open back in July of 2014. He has played here twice, missing the cut in his maiden voyage back in 2011 but finished with an impressive 7th place finish in 2012. He is an extremely accurate player that should be able to navigate this course under par once again this year. He fits nicely into a stars and scrubs lineup.
Also Consider - John Merrick
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the FedEx St. Jude Classic ? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
FedEx St. Jude Classic
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
The cheatsheet was valuable this week, except the problem was that Hideki Matsui replaced Hideki Matsuyama on the course, otherwise I would have cashed. Thanks! Let's see what happens this week.
Yes, Matsuyama ruined one of my teams as well.
I like Lee McCoy making his pro debut at $6,700. He finished 4th as an amateur at the Valspar Championship. Only concern is that is a course he grew up playing. He has game though.
@Neil I was very close to adding McCoy as a sleeper GPP pick but couldn't pull the trigger. I need to see more than one tourny and like you said it was his home course. I would not shy away from adding him to a stars and scrubs lineup though.
Yes Chris, I agree. It is a weaker field than Valspar so I'm going to give him a go.