Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Axalta We Paint Winners 400

DFSR is proud to bring you Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly NASCAR picks, analysis and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. If you are new to DraftKings NASCAR DFS be sure to click on the banner below.
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Axalta We Paint Winners 400? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings and FantasyFeud Tournaments. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

 

Click Here to Purchase NASCAR Lineups

Playing other daily fantasy sports like NBA or NHL. Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces all of our picks. Sign up now and get our lineup construction tool for FanDuel & DraftKings.

Axalta We Paint Winners 400

Pocono Raceway - Long Pond, Pennsylvania
Track - 2.5 Mile Tri Oval Superspeedway
6°-14° of Banking in the Corners

 

It was a record setting performance this past Sunday as Martin Truex Jr. lead 392 of 400 laps as he picked up his first win of the 2016 season. Huge credit to the crew chief and team as they gave Truex an absolutely perfect car in a race where the track changed so much throughout the late afternoon and into the evening. Truex has been so close all season and it seemed almost everyone in NASCAR was pulling for the #78 on Sunday. The Top 10 in Sprint Cup Standing are now:

1. #4 Kevin Harvick(457)
2. #41 Kurt Busch(421)
3. #48 Jimmie Johnson(409)
4. #18 Kyle Busch(405)
5. #19 Carl Edwards(404)
6. #2 Brad Keselowski(404)
7. #78 Martin Truex Jr.(381)
8. #24 Chase Elliott(374)
9. #22 Joey Logano(373)
10. #20 Matt Kenseth(347)

 

This week NASCAR heads to the "Tricky Triangle" better know as Pocono Raceway for the Axalta We Paint Winner 400. The track is a two and a half mile Tri Oval and is one of the most unique tracks on the circuit. It's shaped like a triangle with three completely different corners setup with different banking in each(14°,8°,6°). Teams will have to compromise their setups and it is nearly impossible to be great in all three turns. Four of the last five June Pocono races have seen one driver dominate the laps led with that driver starting inside the Top 4 each time. Qualifying becomes quite important for this reason. I will again be weighting qualifying, final practice and final practice 10 lap averages very highly this week. Stay tuned for the updates throughout the weekend leading up to the race. Let's take a look at some picks.

I will again be selling a cheatsheet every week of the NASCAR season. It will include drivers salaries for DraftKings and FantasyFeud, current form(last 5 races), track history(last 5 years), and I update the cheatsheet throughout the weekend following practice and qualifying. With the purchase of the cheatsheet you also get a few sample lineups. These lineups will almost always change following qualifying and practice so be sure to check lineup page before lineups lock on Sunday.

I have added weighted rankings for Track History, Current Form, Season Loop Data and Practice/Qualifying. This will help better identify the best values each week and can be full customized by the user. Just download the View Only version from the lineups page and create copy which will then allow you to change any weights or sort any column you wish.

*New Update* This week I have added another tab called Salary Trends. It is a list of all drivers and their week by week salaries on DraftKings.

If you have any questions about the cheatsheet throw me an email(jagerbombs99@gmail.com) or hit me up on Twitter(@jager_bombs9).

 

Upper Tier Targets ($9,000+)

 

Martin Truex Jr.
DraftKings - $10,300
Qualified - 17th
Final Practice - 4th

It's hard not list Truex as the top play this week after his dominating performance last week. He will now look to carry that momentum over to Pocono where he returns as the defending race winner of the Axalta We Paint Winners 400. He dominated the race last June leading 97 laps with an average running position of 2.0 and an incredible 147.0 average driver rating. He will be highly owned this week but if he shows the same kind of speed as last weekend it will be hard to fade the #78 Furniture Row Racing car.

 

Jimmie Johnson 
DraftKings - $10,100
Fantasy Feud - $
Qualified - 7th
Final Practice - 3rd

Outside of Kyle Larson who has only four races under his belt here at Pocono, Jimmie leads all active drivers with a 9.5 average finish here at Pocono with three career wins and 19 Top 10 finishes. Over the last five years(10 races) he has picked up a win, five Top 5's, seven Top 10's and a 9.4 average finish. In that time he has also lead the most laps with 221. The #48 team will be happy to see the calendar flip to June after finishing three of the four races outside the Top 15. Look for Chad Knauss to give Jimmie a fast car as they try to become the second three win team this season.

 

 

Brad Keselowski 
DraftKings - $9,100
Qualified - 1st
Final Practice - 6th

Brad is my top value of the week, pre practice, as he sits at the top of my weighted rankings. Over the past five years(10 races) he has a win, four Top 5's, five Top 10's and a 11.2 average finish. He has been heating up coming into this race with finishes of 11th(Richmond), 1st(Talladega), 10th(Kansas), 6th(Dover), and 5th(Charlotte) in his last five races. He is the lowest priced option in the upper tier and makes a great play in any format regardless of starting position.

 

Also Consider - Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Middle Tier Targets ($6,500-$9,000)

 

Kyle Larson
DraftKings - $8,700
Qualified - 21st
Final Practice -  11th

I mentioned it earlier that he is the only driver with a better career average finish at Pocono than Jimmie Johnson. He has only raced here four times but has finishes of 5th, 11th, 8th and 12th. After two down weeks at Talladega(29th) and Kansas(35th) , Larson bounced back with a runner up at Dover and 13th place finish last weekend at the Coca Cola 600. Look at the salary trends on the cheatsheet I noticed that his price has reached its highest point of the season making it a risky play for cash games but an excellent GPP option.

 

 

Ryan Newman 
DraftKings - $7,100
Qualified - 22nd
Final Practice - 21st

Newman is a driver who has seen his salary trend in a positive direction and sits at $7,100 which is the lowest it has been in eight races. It is a little odd as he has been running quite well lately with two Top 10 finishes in his last three races. While he has only one win here back in 2003, he has been solid with three Top 5's and seven Top 10's in the last five years(10 races) here. At a low $7K price tag, Newman is a safe and consistent choice for any format this weekend.

 

Also Consider - Kasey Kahne

 

 

Low End Targets ($6,500 and Below)

 

Trevor Bayne
DraftKings - $6,400
Qualified - 24th
Final Practice - 19th

Trevor Bayne makes a great option in the mid $6K range this week. He ha been running very consistent this season with Top 25 finishes in all but two races with three Top 10 finishes after recording just two all of last season. I am not worried about his 32.0 average finish here in his two career races as he is a young driver who has matured and is becoming a better drive with every race. He will become a must play if he qualifies outside the Top 20. Stay tuned for an update later today.

 

 

Also Consider - Regan Smith

 

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10

 

 

 

 

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.

 

Good Luck everyone!

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Axalta We Paint Winners 400? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings and FantasyFeud Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.