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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 199 - 6/4/16
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What. A. Card. Sometimes, even as a big-time UFC fan, I'm a bit reluctant to shell out the cash to order a PPV. I do it, but I don't feel great about it. That's not the case for UFC 199, we get two title fights, Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 & Cruz vs. Faber 3, and a whole lot of bad blood. We also have a ton of DFS strategy to discuss with big-name, high-priced guys at the top of the pool and some sneaky good GPP value right in the middle. Pick time!
Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?
VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)
Hector Lombard ($11,000)
Vegas Line: -380
Career Record: 34-5-1, 2 NC
UFC Record: 3-3, 1 NC
Record In Last 5: 2-2, 1 NC
Finishes: 19 KO / 7 Subs / 20 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO
Last Time Out: L, 3rd Round TKO – Neil Magny
The loser of Hector Lombard vs. Dan Henderson could very well end up retiring as two of the older fighters on the UFC roster clash Saturday night. Lombard was in an absolute WAR last time out with Neil Magny and simply gassed out after Magny somehow survived a savage beating in the first round. Lombard is super aggressive and Hendo (sadly) just can't take much punishment anymore. Henderson has been put away in the first-round of three of his last six fights and if Lombard connects with any power punch, I suspect the lights will go out. The only hesitation I have is Lombard's short turnaround after the Magny fight. But with such great potential for 100+ points, it's not enough to scare me off Lombard - I'll be leaning on him heavily for UFC 199.
MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)
Elvis Mutapcic ($9,600)
Vegas Line: -155
Career Record: 15-4
UFC Record: 0-1
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Finishes: 5 KO / 7 Subs / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision - Francimar Barroso
Yes. In theory I know how to pronounce his last name. No, I never get it right. If you had told me before research that Mutapcic would land here, I probably would have laughed at you. Let me explain how this happened. Mutapcic finishes fights, with a 63% stoppage rate and he should be over the UFC debut jitters from his fight in January. That and Kevin Casey has shown he can be finished. All of his losses are by KO, including last time out against Rafael Natal - a fight in which he looked just awful. The output in this fight could be low if there's not a finish but regardless of how the fight plays out, almost every scenario favors Mutapcic. The line on the fight has shifted since DK posted salaries, showing that the bettors also favor Mutapcic to pick up his first UFC victory.
UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)
Urijah Faber ($8,100)
Vegas Line: +425
Career Record: 33-8
UFC Record: 9-4
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Finishes: 7 KO / 19 Subs / 14 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 3 KO
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision – Frankie Edgar
Calm down! I'm not saying run out and put Faber in all of your lineups. I do think this could be much, much closer than Faber's $8,100 salary and +425 odds would lead you to believe. Faber has been near the top of the game for a long time and I don't see a quick finish in the conclusion of his trilogy with Dominick Cruz. Cruz has two surgically repaired ACL's and I just feel like he's more vulnerable then he's letting on. In theory, Cruz should be at the peak of his career and Faber on the downswing but my cheat sheet has it being a close bout and stylistically it should be a war. Besides that, how great would TJ Dillashaw vs. Urijah Faber be!? OK, its not a sure thing but I'm avoiding Cruz everywhere at his $11,300 cost and slipping Faber into some GPP lineups.
Also Consider: Michael Bisping - Main Event Stack
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UFC 198
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NO WAY BISPING IS GONNA HAVE HIS ARM RAISED!!! gonna be another loud non stopping yapper like McGregor! and btw…..has anyone even heard from McGregor since his lose?!
Well so much for the no way he gets his arm raised comment lol
With your lineups are they only good for cash or is it also a go for gpp?
Steve- I agree that Bisping will lose but a main event stack isn’t a bad idea because I’m not sure Rockhold (especially w late injury news) can stop him.
Sean- Cheatsheet has a cash and GPP lineup, primarily for research as well as rankings based on statistics.
Let’s get to it ….
First and foremost , these are some of the highest prices I’ve seen in a while which makes the lineup construction sort of mehh, only a few underdogs have a shot
Starting with your first pick . I love Hector Lombard he will be heavily favored and in most lineups . It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Hendo is past his prime and can’t take a punch , nonetheless facing a killer like Lombard. That being said , man my gut tells me Hendo will do it. Given the facts where this is his last fight on his contract & he’s talking retirement saying this May be his last, he still has the H-Bomb & lastly this fight is in California …..where’s hes from . So I have to hedge this fight just I’m case . Plus you put the key point of the 3 million significant strikes Hector took last time out ; he did not take the proper time off . But officially I’m picking Lombard my KO
Your second pick I love it and the fact that you put Mutapcic up here shows you know your stuff . Kevin Casey sucks and he gasses badly & again he sucks . Elvis should take this handily and by stoppage because Kevin Casey is a quitter . Mutapcic will be in every lineup and I’m riding or dying with him.
That underdog pick . Faber has no chance in hell to me . Dom is evolving where Faber is stagnant nonetheless it will be a decision for Cruz. As I said previously not too many underdogs will pull it out but I give James Vick , Dong Hyun Kim, and Andrade (in that order) ….
P.S. I’m high on Jonathan Wilson as well
Good article bro
Thanks again for reading Divine. I also like Kim and Vick but I think there’s a lot of consensus on those being good value plays, including my cheat sheet (cheap plug). I chose to write up Faber for the reasons I mentioned above. I just think its closest than $8,100 and he makes a viable GPP play – I have Faber nowhere in cash lineups.
How are you guys feeling about Holloway he’s been doing very good and llamas not so much also how about porrier vs green can you see green with the upset also what are your thought on Ortega and guida I know guida has a serious chin and was known for his cardio but does he really have those things anymore?
Holloway/Llamas to me is one of the more unpredictable fights on the card – one I’m staying away from. I would lean Holloway, very slightly.
Poirier by decision, I’ve seen a lot of people on Green and it wouldn’t totally shock me. But I like Poirier’s game too much to pick against him.
Ortega is a GPP play because if he doesn’t get the sub everyone is expecting, Guida absolutely has the wrestling to grind out a win.
I put Bisping in my lineup. First, I feel like he’s waited too long for this. While I hear the things about him not training and all that (due to movie filming and short notice), I think you could do worse. He’s also gone from +750 to +450 the last few weeks. While the line was way too high to begin with and the injury with Rockhold came out, that tells me a lot. Other thing is that he is way too good a fighter to be that cheap. To use an old expression, guys that cheap are tomato cans. Not Bisping. Also allows me to have a lot of the guys that could finish early.
Paid for lineups but can’t find them
Don- I just emailed Doug/James, one of them should get back to you soon.
Looking forward to the lineups when will I get them?
Lewis- Not sure when you posted, but you receive an email right after purchasing. Let me know if that’s not the case.
the fights are about to begin, where are the lineups I paid for?
Hey Lewis – I sent you an email with a new link to the email you have listed here. The original link probably got sent to spam.
Soooo…the intangible of Casey’s father-in-law being Muhammad Ali has me a little nervous. Might actually give him the urgency he’s always needed.
Draws are killer in DFS. Oof.
Lombard just killed me. He gets that KO in the first round, I go over 500 points.
So after the payment how do you access the lineup