Mets at Orioles 8/19/15
Welcome to another Friday of daily fantasy baseball. With only one early game(ARI vs. CHC) we will turn the majority of our attention to the 14 game evening slate. It should be a great night for lineup building with a nice mix of aces and mid range options on the mound. We don't have to worry about Coors tonight as the Rockies have headed out on the road. Let's dig in and try to identify some of the other terrific values tonight.
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Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @MIA
FD - 39.28 DK - 22.1
Thor should be well rested as he was tossed from his last start in the third inning as a result of throwing behind Chase Utley. He entered the game vs. the White Sox on Tuesday as a reliever and pitched an inning of hit-less ball with two strikeouts. If not for some guy name Kershaw, Syndergaard would most likely be considered the best pitcher in baseball in just his second season. He has elevated his K rate to 11.45 K/9 while inducing almost 9% more ground balls(57%) and limiting the long ball(8.1% HR/FB rate). The matchup isn't elite by any means as the Marlins rank 12th in wOBA vs. right handed pitching but Thor is near matchup proof and is safe in all formats.
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @PHI
FD - 36.78 DK - 20.22
The projection system likes Velasquez on both sites tonight as one of the highest projected pitchers on a PTS/$ basis. He is coming off two awful starts on the road where he has had issues this season but returns home to Philly tonight where he has limited opponents to a .222 wOBA against. He has high strikeout upside(10.58 K/9) and faces the Brewers who are striking out over 26% of the time vs. right handed pitchers. He makes a nice second pitcher on DraftKings and should come in as one of the lower owned options on FanDuel, perfect for GPP's.
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @LAD
FD - 35.8 DK - 19.6
Maeda comes at a discount from some of the top priced options on both sites and provides a similar floor for cash games. The Dodgers are one of the biggest favorites(-240) on the slate putting Maeda in a great spot to pick up a win. He is currently striking out over eight batters per nine innings in large part to his above average 12.5% swing strike rate. He has also limited opponents power with a below average 24.2% hard hit ball rate. Maeda gets a golden matchup on Friday vs. the Braves who rank 29th in wOBA(.276) and 30th in ISO(.092) and wRC+(70) vs. right handed pitching.
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @DET
FD - 10.37 DK - 8
He is a much better play on FanDuel where he qualifies as a catcher and comes in just over the $3K mark. He is a switch hitter who has killed left handed pitching over the last few years and is having a tremendous start to the 2016 season. He has hit .344 to this point with a very impressive 151 wRC+ and has seen a jump in the power with eight long balls already after only hitting 11 all of last year. He will face Carlos Rodon who has struggled with control vs. right handed batters giving up 19 walks in 41 innings along with a .351 wOBA.
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @SD
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.17
Whenever he faces a lefty I am interested if the price is right. He has considerable splits(.363 wOBA) vs. southpaws for his career and is coming off a big three hit game in a barn burner last night vs. the Mariners. Hopefully it's enough to jump start Norris who has been struggling with a sub .200 average to this point of the season. The Padres will open a series vs. the Rockies on Friday who will throw Chris Rusin on the mound who has given up 19 earned runs in his first five starts this season. Rusin has also not been going deep into games which could be huge as the Rockies bullpen has been taxed lately as only one of their starters made it through six innings in the series against the Reds.
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @DET
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.48
Pretty straight forward with this pick. He still seems under priced for the quality of hitter you are getting as one of the best pure hitters of our generation. In his 14th season he is still producing big fantasy numbers hitting over .300 once again with a 147 wRC+ and could have even more upside as his .311 BABIP is 35 points below his career average. Miggy makes a nice pivot off the top priced options with similar upside and is a safe choice in all formats.
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.38
If you don't mind taking a big risk with possible big rewards, Abreu is the play tonight. It has been a slow start to the season for Abreu who has seen a dip in the production we have come to expect after two solid seasons. The average currently sits at .242 but with a BABIP 50 points below his carer mark we can expect some positive regression coming his way. He comes with big power upside(30+ HR in his first two seasons) and the slow start has pushed his salary to a very enticing value at the low $3K range on both sites.
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.18 DK - 8.05
Utley has been on a quite roll lately with hits in eight of his last nine games for the Dodgers. He is normally just a safe cash game play but tonight can be considered in any format in a great spot at home vs. the Braves. He will face Julio Teheran who has struggled vs. left handed hitters, giving up a .342 wOBA and .451 Slugging % as compared to a .218 wOBA and .263 Slugging% vs. the right side.
Opponent - SEA (Walker) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.56 DK - 8.98
He has been filling in for the the suspended Roughned Odor and has been providing excellent fantasy value in the leadoff spot. He should get one more start before heading back to the minors so take advantage while you can. He has picked up a hit in all six games coming into tonight including four multi hit efforts and seven runs scored. He makes a great play on his own or an affordable addition to a Rangers stack tonight against Taijuan Walker who has been awful in May with a 4.91 ERA while giving up nine home runs in six starts.
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.45
He was discussed in yesterday's article and paid off once again with two hits and two runs scored. Erase those April numbers from your memory as he heated up in May with a .286 average and 136 wRC+. He will face another weak Twins right handed pitcher in Ricky Nolasco who has given up four or more earned runs in six of his 10 starts this season. Miller provides extra base power and positive career splits against right handed pitching and is an acceptable option in any format hitting second in the Rays lineup.
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.57
The projection system is absolutely loving the value in Dodger left handed bats vs. Julio Teheran tonight. He comes in right at the same price range as his teammate Chase Utley but comes with much more upside. He is hitting with an extremely above average 39.9% hard hit ball rate which has helped produce nine home runs to this point in the season. He is hitting .277 on the season with 27 RBI and 33 runs scored hitting near the top of the order. The Dodgers could go lefty heavy on Friday night making for a great stacking opportunity.
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.92
The salary puts Rendon in a tier right under the elite options(Bryant, Donaldson, Machado, Arenado), which presents some value on Friday night. After a slow April he has started to heat up hitting .279 with a 133 wRC+ since May 1 and has added 4 HR, 14 RBI and 20 runs scored. He has always hit left handed pitching well and this season is no different as his wOBA has reached .416 vs. southpaws with a crazy 162 wRC+. Brandon Finnegan makes an excellent pitcher to target as he is sporting a 5.00 xFIP with a high BB rate(4.43 BB/9) and low strikeout rate(6.29 K/9).
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.2
The Phillies lineup is not very intimidating whatsoever but can be considered a great source for low end values on a nightly basis. Franco has been the bell cow when it comes to driving in runs, leading the team with nine home runs after blasting another in the series opener last night. His price has remained steady on FanDuel but has seen a $900 drop on DraftKings in the last two weeks. If you want to save up at 3B he makes a great play on his own or if you wnat to be contrarian a Phillies stack vs. Jimmy Nelson is a sneaky option. He has been solid to start the year with a 2.88 ERA but his 4.28 xFIP and 81.4% LOB rate suggests he will come back down to Earth very soon.
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @DET
FD - 11.71 DK - 9
Over the past two seasons, Martinez has placed himself in the upper tier of outfielders but continues to be in the mid range of salaries on both sites. This explains the projection systems love for him tonight. Don't be discouraged by the low .245 batting average because the power numbers have been there with 11 HR, 29 RBI and 29 runs scored. His .286 BABIP(over 50 points lower than previous two seasons) also suggests a positive regression is near. The middle of the Tigers lineup is a very affordable option tonight with huge upside.
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.05 DK - 8.55
Conforto has picked up right where he left off after being called up in late July last year. He has already his eight home runs in 46 games after hitting nine in 56 games in 2015. The biggest thing that stands out is his elite 44.5% hard hit ball rate vs. right handed pitching. The Mets and Conforto get a plus matchup vs. Tom Koehler who's walk rate(5.83 BB/9) is almost higher than his K rate(6.5 K/9) and the 5.30 xFIP suggests his luck will soon run out.
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.98 DK - 10.01
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.39 DK - 8.28
This choice depends on the health of Bryce Harper who has missed two straight games with a knee contusion. Heisey filled in and hit leadoff on Wednesday and if Harper sits out again, he will present a terrific punt option at near minimum price on both sites. If Harper is back in the lineup he makes a contrarian GPP play who should come with low ownership coming off the injury and facing a left handed pitcher. After struggling against southpaws in his first three seasons he broke out in a big way last season with a .421 wOBA and 170 wRC+. Stay tuned as lineups roll out later today and be sure to check out our updates articles and, as always, the comments section below.
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View Comments
Salazar
Velasquez
Ramos
Shaw
Turner (assuming starting)
Rendon
Profar
Bradley
Werth
Young
Better for cash or GPP? Was just messing around with lineups and like this one
Thoughts on Valencia vs fister?
No more Coors, hooray! Faded the Rocks last night and it paid off big, but it sure was a big sweat. Every bat was like 70-80% owned lol unreal.
I have no idea how, but I cashed in 4 of 6 GPP's last night with lineups loaded with Rockies. I had some Reds sprinkled in and Machado/Trumbo in a couple. This is a strange game. Thank God Coors is done for now.
I'm with you on this last piece. The Coors lines just throw things off so much. Today much more evenly spaced throughout.
Looks like Al Simon spooned up a "big plate of pasta" to the Rox.
Stop Whining!
Not going to lie last night was a rough one lolol ice cold
Yeah FD optimal lineup cashed easy. DK is crazy it didn't because got what we wanted out of pitching, Pineda especially. Just the bats couldn't get anything going outside of the heavy chalk.
That's mlb lol your picks were gd it's my fill ins that came up short lol
Used a Reds stack on optimizer last night and won $100. Followed optimizer right down to last outfielder which was Dickerson. Before choosing looked right at Adam Jones but decided against it. That decision cost me at least $6,000
Oh no! Stuff like this is why Doug and I wind up running so many damn GPP variations. I'd be all about hedging and playing multiple lineups whenever you get an intuition that strong.
6 grand wow lesson follow your gut? E