Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez fouls off a pitch on the way to striking out against San Diego Padres starting pitcher James Shields in the seventh inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 20, 2015, in Denver. San Diego won 10-4. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
If you don't like reading about the Colorado Rockies or if you're a close personal friend of Alfredo Simon, we suggest you turn back now. For everybody else, read on for today's picks for a three-game early slate and an eight-gamer tonight dominated by Coors Field.
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Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @ATL
FD - 44.19 DK - 25.54
MadBum is the projection system's runaway choice at pitcher Thursday, regardless of the slate, and figuring out why doesn't require a thorough investigation. Let's start with the Braves, who are terrible. You probably already know that much, but let's dig into the suffering a little. First, they're dead last in everything related to hitting baseballs and they're even worse (if there can be such as thing) against lefties. Last in wOBA, last in wRC+, last in slugging, OBP and ISO. Again, you probably knew that already. But did you know this? Twenty-four (!) major league teams have an OBP against lefties that's higher than the Braves slugging percentage, which sits at a cool .303. See? Terrible. Meanwhile, Bumgarner remains a ace. Yeah, his walks are up a bit, and maybe he's due for some home run regression, but does it really even matter in this one? He's good, Atlanta isn't. Play him everywhere.
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @SD
FD - 34.53 DK - 17.99
The choice is much less obvious tonight. Carlos Carrasco may draw a decent ownership rate, but he's on a pitch limit in his first start off the DL, so we suggest looking elsewhere. And if the Braves are already taken, turning toward whoever is facing the Padres is never a bad idea. That good fortune falls to Miley tonight, and that's the primary factor driving this pick. Miley's numbers aren't very exciting, which is a nice way of saying "not good." He comes in with an ERA just a tick under 5.00, and his 4.35 xFIP says he's more or less earned it. That said, the walks and Ks he's putting up this year are fine; it's the long ball that's burning him and Petco should help out there. Also helpful: the Padres hitters. They're actually not that bad against LHP this season, but they're not a lineup we need to duck and they also strike out a bunch in the split, which provides a nice boost to Miley's so-so ceiling. If that sounds like half-hearted recommendation, it is. But we think it's probably the best you're going to be able to do on the late slate.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @PHI
FD - 34.51 DK - 18.33
If you can't stomach Miley's 1.8 HRs/9, consider going cheap with Eickhoff. He's a pretty average dude, but he owns a respectable 3.79 xFIP on the season, and the Brewers' league-worst 27 percent K-rate against righties give him decent upside. As is always the case with the Phillies pitchers, you might want to think twice before using him on FanDuel and other sites that place a lot of value on wins, because the Philadelphia offense isn't typically going to provide much support. The good news is the Brewers will be sending Chase Anderson (5.00 ERA, 4.64 xFIP) to the mound and Vegas has the Phils as the early favorite.
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.53
McCann is slumping and he's facing a lefty, but no, the projection system is being intentionally contrarian. That's just a happy coincidence. This is the algorithm picking on Matt Boyd, whose brief track record in the bigs shows pretty dramatic reverse splits (.449 wOBA vs. lefties). Granted, it's a small sample, but the thing is, he hasn't been very good against anybody in the first 67 innings of his career. The Yanks should have a chance to push across some runs, and McCann, who holds solid career numbers vs. southpaws, should be in the middle of it. Lineup slot is extremely valuable in DFS and you won't find many catchers hitting in the heart of the order with McCann's current price tag.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @COL
FD - 10.42 DK - 8.4
If you're not familiar with the work of Alfredo Simon (aka Big Pasta, seriously), our projection system would love to tell you about him. He went 15-10 with the Reds in 2014, which probably led a lot of people to believe he was a decent pitcher. If you were among the duped, it's OK. You've got company in the Detroit Tigers, who gave up Eugenio Suarez for a single year of the Pasta Experience before shoving the plate away. His underlying numbers have never been good, and not only are they getting worse, his surface stats have also corrected themselves in a big way. More on that later. We're going to be talking about Mr. Simon a lot today. As for Wolters, there's not a ton to be excited about beyond Coors Field and the fact that he should be stepping up to the plate with men aboard more times than not. At catcher tonight, that'll do.
Opponent - LAD (Maeda) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.59 DK - 6.57
We're not thrilled with the price on Buster Posey or the matchup against Zack Greinke for Evan Gattis, which limits our options pretty severely at catcher on the early slate. We're leaning toward Montero as the value play, because while Kenta Maeda isn't an obvious pitcher to target, his 4.02 xFIP suggests he's due for some home run regression. Our level of enthusiasm for this pick, however, hinges on a couple of factors A) Which way the wind is blowing at Wrigley, and B) where Montero falls in the order. No park varies more with the weather than Wrigley, and the difference between No. 6 and No. 8 in the order can be significant for RBI opportunities, plate appearances and the kind of pitches Montero will see. Keep an eye on the weather and the lineup in this one.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @COL
FD - 16.16 DK - 12.34
So where were we on ol' Pasta? Oh yeah, so, he's bad and he's not getting better. Maybe not 9.60 ERA bad, but 5.46 xFIP bad, and really, what's the difference? His command issues and home run troubles are getting worse each of the last three seasons, and there's nothing in this season's game log to suggest he's figuring anything out. So, put that guy in Coors Field and this is what you get. Rockies everywhere. Reynolds doesn't seem to possess the 40-home run power he once had, and he's not elevating the ball much this year, which is why he's still sitting on two bombs now two months into the season. But his numbers are strong against RHP in 2016 (.173 ISO, .481 slugging), and it'll only take one fat one from Simon to send those numbers climbing.
Opponent - NYY (Pineda) Park - @DET
FD - 13.38 DK - 10.16
He's no longer in the conversation for best hitter in baseball, but post-peak Miggy is still a formidable bat. His .392 wOBA and .550 slugging this season are just a shade off his career numbers, and he continues to mash, regardless of the split. Actually, most of this year's success has come against RHP, against whom he sports a .331/.389/.616 triple slash. Tonight's foe, Michael Pineda, hasn't been quite as bad as the surface stats suggest, but command has been a problem, leading to a walk rate more than twice as high as last year's and likely playing a role in the 1.86 HR/9 he's allowed.
Consider: Joey Votto, Chris Davis
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @COL
FD - 14.18 DK - 12.08
Simon says he's allowed 26 hits and 17 runs allowed in his last three starts. Simon says LeMahieu hits second and comes in with an 11-game hitting streak and six extra-base hits in his last four games. Simon says the projection system doesn't really care about hot streaks, but it cares an awful lot about LeMahieu's .361 wOBA this season (.367 vs. RHP), as well as his high-contact rate and patience at the plate. Simon says these prices are more than we usually like to pay for a second baseman without a ton of home run upside, but we'll do it in the right matchup, and this one qualifies.
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.96 DK - 8.08
We might look back and chalk up Gennett's performance so far in 2016 as a small-sample fluke, but from what we've seen through 136 PAs, it appears as if the 26-year-old has dramatically altered his approach. He was a free-swinging slap hitter throughout the minors and into his first two-plus MLB seasons. Now it looks like he's going for patience and power, which is, ya know, the total opposite. It's weird. His hard contact rate and fly ball percentages are both well above his career averages, and he's swinging far less than he has in the past. Maybe it's an aberration, or maybe he's aiming to become the next Matt Carpenter. At any rate, the results this year have been pretty mediocre, but he's always shown a strong preference for RHP, Jerad Eickhoff gives up his share of fly balls and homers, and Citizens Bank Park was No. 6 in the majors for home run factors last season. So there's plenty working in his favor tonight, even if we're not quite sure who he is right now.
Consider: Jason Kipnis, Brandon Phillips.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @COL
FD - 13.72 DK - 11.15
Look, if there was somebody other than Colorado player to recommend here, that's what we'd do. But I'm just not sure I can express how strongly the algorithm hates Alfredo Simon. Here's something: On DraftKings, the projection system is predicting Story, who is far from the highest Rockies hitter on the board, to score more than twice as many points as Simon. Story has fallen far off the other-worldly pace he set at the beginning of the season and has been dropped in the order, replaced in the two hole by LeMahieu. Even so, he's pegged as the highest scorer among shortstops on Thursday by nearly two full points over Manny Machado. For Story, maybe more than any other Rockies hitter, Simon's inability to miss bats comes into play here, because strikeouts are what keeps a cap on the 23-year-old's value. He whiffs in more than 34 percent of at-bats, which is enough to earn most players a quick ticket back to the Pacific Coast League. But this is just who Story is. He's always struck out a ton, but he does enough damage when he makes contact to make him an asset. And against Simon, chances are he'll be making contact.
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.2 DK - 9.08
After an awful start, Miller's been on a nice run lately. He hit just .185 with a .266 wOBA in April, but found his stroke in May and turned in a .291 average and .376 wOBA. The bad news is you'll have to pay up a little because of it, but we like the matchup against Minnesota's Kyle Gibson. He'll be making his first start off of a DL stint, and while you could make the argument shoulder problems were to blame for his his epic badness (11 Ks, 13 BBs) in four starts this season, he's never been the kind of pitcher who needs to be avoided in DFS. His career numbers against lefties are especially bad (4.71 xFIP), and Miller owns a career .177 ISO against RHP, which is worth paying for at mid-range prices.
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.15 DK - 7.2
The system isn't has high on Crawford has the two options above, but SS is pretty tough on the early slate today. Breaking somewhat from his split-neutral track record, Crawford has been most dangerous against RHP this season, with a .344 wOBA and and .483 slugging. That translates into nice upside against Aaron Blair, a rookie with nice potential who hasn't yet figured it out at the major-league level. He's walking more than he strikes out through six big-league starts, and though a lefty-neutralizing change-up is supposed to be his calling card, it hasn't yet translated, as lefties own a .408 wOBA in the small sample. The one thing he has done well is limit home runs, and Turner Field should help with that, which lowers Crawford's ceiling to some degree. Nonetheless, we like Crawford's bang for the buck on a thin menu.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @COL
FD - 17.85 DK - 13.83
On this all-Colorado edition of the picks column, there's no way we're skipping the best hitter on the team. He's the most-expensive 3B on the slate by a wide margin, but we've still got him pegged as one of the top options on a points-per-dollar basis. The formula's pretty simple here: Simon is bad, the park is great, and Arenado possesses perhaps the game's best combination of power and contact skills. He ranks eighth in MLB with a 10.6% strikeout rate and leads the NL in homers with 16 through 51 games. Robinson Cano is the only other player in the MLB top 10 for HRs who strikes out less than 15 percent of the time. What that means for our purposes is that there's a great chance he'll be putting the ball in play. And when he puts the ball in play, good things happen. Especially in Coors Field. And yeah, especially against Alfredo Simon.
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.05
He's creeping up on 700 HRs and through the miracle of modern medicine as long as he stays healthy, he's probably gonna get there well before the summer's done. It goes without saying he's not the guy he once was, but he might still be close enough to the guy who slugged 33 HRs last year to make his current price a steal in a soft matchup like this one. Yeah, that .170 batting average is ugly, but we're not sweating it, because his BABIP is also at .170, more than .100 points off of last year's number. That's unsustainable, and the correction is coming. A-Rod put up a .389 wOBA against southpaws last year, and as mentioned earlier, we can pick on Boyd. He's giving up more than 2.5 HRs/9 through his first 67 IP as a big leaguer and we wouldn't be shocked if he gives up No. 694 tonight.
Consider: Maikel Franco, Pedro Alvarez for upside at a bargain.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @COL
FD - 18.7 DK - 14.42
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @COL
FD - 14.59 DK - 12.11
Ok, we should probably say this. Not all of these Colorado pick are strictly about Alfredo Simon and the park. The Cincinnati bullpen is just as bad as Simon and they'll likely be making an appearance here. Regardless of which Cincinnati pitcher they happen to be facing, the projection system can't get enough of CarGo and Parra tonight. Gonzalez is the top choice among OF in terms of raw points and value, and Parra isn't far off.
Opponent - PIT (Nicasio) Park - @MIA
FD - 12.07 DK - 9.09
Stanton returned to the lineup Wednesday after missing the previous seven games, and the projection system isn't going to miss many opportunities to recommend one of the game's elite sluggers at these prices. Marlins Park isn't a great venue for power, but it's never been an impediment for Stanton. Juan Nicasio probably won't be either. The buzz generated by a strong spring has completely faded as the 29-year-old journeyman-in-the-making has yielded at least four runs in four straight starts. He's still striking guys out at a nice clip, but he's walking too many and giving up too many homers, and that's what we're hoping to pounce on here while Stanton is still coming at a discount. His price has been dragged down by an extended slump which saw him post a .173 batting average in May. That's a little worrisome, but it's probably worth noting that he hit .189 last May and then hit .344 with 12 bombs in June. Are we predicting the turn of the calendar will magically trigger another hot streak of that caliber? Well, no. But know that it's within his profile, and odds are he's going to bust out soon.
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.63 DK - 9.05
Speaking of under-priced power hitters, Dickerson is basically a poor man's Stanton. That .204 batting average is ugly, and sub-.300 wOBA isn't much better, but a BABIP more than .100 points off his career average suggests Dickerson's been the victim of bad luck for much of this year. There's not much in his batted ball profile that says he's a different hitter than he was when he posted slugging percentages north of .500 in his last year and a half with the Rockies. Obviously, leaving Coors hurts, but he's still putting up a .250 ISO, and while it takes a large sample for that stat to normalize, we feel safe in saying the power is still there. He also gets a nice boost from Kyle Gibson's low K numbers, and while it would be nice to see him elevated in the batting order, he makes a nice one-off upside play in tournaments tonight.
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View Comments
Wow...that Rockie stack last night was due to fail. Such is baseball. I have a feeling they will indeed bounce back against Simon. Any reason you wrote up Parra over Blackmon? They are both great plays today, but I will take Blackmon leading off any day over Parra. Salaries are in the same neighborhood.
No you are correct. At the time of the write-up there was a slight issue with our projections in that all of our leadoff hitters weren't getting their usual plate appearance expectation. It was making Blackmon look bad. Brent pointed it out and we corrected, but not in time for publishing this. I'm adding his name though.
I finally figured this out after 2 months of using your suggestions I have lost big once in awhile my money back so I started doing opposite of your projections especially with pitchers now I can win
Lol. Cool. Thanks for reading!
Do you like the Cubs hitters more since Maeda is now scheduled to pitch Friday and Julio Urias is pitching in his place?
Yes. Urias, while a fantastic prospect is still in the beginning stages here. That being said, he has elite stuff and when it's turned on he is better than Maeda. I will play Cubs, but not 100% bullish on them.
Took the Padres stack after the pitching change. Go Padres! Lol
Ha, nice! Good call. They turned it on. That righty heavy lineup can do some damage v lhp in the right scenario
I saw the people who placed in the tournaments on Fanduel, it was a great call after King Felix went on the DL stacking Padres. I made some cash playing Sox but the Rockies was tragic last night.
been on padres for a few days but not Seattle or colorado..of course last night I faded San Diego and ran Seattle and colorado..I hate dfs.. BUT I LOVE DFS...stacking rockies/Padres today..with Moore pitching vs a terrible Minnesota vs lhp..opinions?
Yeah Ramirez was 0% ownership not sure if that means I was only one who owned him he hit two deep it was nice to wake up to lol. Any thoughts on dodgers Cubs game? I wanna stack Cubs ?
Re: Cubs. Highest expected run line on early slate and coming on the cheaper side thanks to some recent struggles. This is to say, I really like them.
Raked in the Coors/Moscot game. Thought, hey, let it roll with "Sacrificial Lamb" and fade Bos/Bal. Oh well, I'm a glutton for punishment.
More often than not Lamb gets shelled in that appearance. But yeah, it was frustrating.
Cool thanks Doug great info as always
Would you go with Parra or mookie betts tonight ?
They aren't the same price point so it's not exactly a 1-1 comparison. I like Parra bit more for the price
What's the story with Matt Boyd? I am loading up on batters on FD and need a cheap option. The options aren't very good...
Why not go with Hendricks if the run support will be behind him?