Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta throws the final pitch of a no-hitter to Cincinnati Reds' Eugenio Suarez in a baseball game Thursday, April 21, 2016, in Cincinnati. The Cubs won 16-0. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
Welcome to Tuesday baseball! We have an interesting day here with a somewhat split slate. In the afternoon, we have 3 games and starting at 7 EST, we have 12 more. We will be focusing on the main slate, however, I will put a consider section below each position for the early slate. Make sure to check out our 3 other articles as they will touch on some more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns. Let's get into the top plays at each position!
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Opponent - LAD (Kazmir) Park - @CHC
FD - 40.95 DK - 23.47
While I think it is very clear that Clayton Kershaw is the league's top pitcher, Jake Arrieta is definitely the leading candidate for 2nd. Arrieta has been absolutely dominant over the past 2 seasons as evidenced by a .223 wOBA and 2.76 xFIP which is all backed up by a 2.75 SIERA. While the Dodgers have been a bit better recently, they are still ranked 22nd against righties with a .305 wOBA and 92 wRC+. Arrieta threw a no-hitter against the Dodgers last year and while we certainly can't expect that, I look for Arrieta to have a very solid outing tonight. I am comfortable with Arrieta in both cash games and tournaments, however he is very expensive and I think it is viable to look at some cheaper options like Matz or Fernandez.
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @CLE
FD - 37.87 DK - 21.51
On the early slate, Kluber is far and away the top option and it is not close at all. Kluber has been pitching well recently with 4 of his last 5 starts being quality starts and has recorded 27 strikeouts in that time span. Kluber has sported a +24% strikeout rate since 2013 and his 3.42 SIERA has backed up his production. This Texas Rangers one is not one I love to target, however, they are taking a ballpark downgrade and have struck out at a 22% clip in 2015 against righties. I expect Kluber to have a quality start here and his expected production is much higher than anyone else on the early slate.
Consider - Jose Fernandez, Steven Matz
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.51 DK - 7.31
Moving on to catcher, it is not a very plentiful position, however, Russell Martin and Yadier Molina are the in the best spots. Starting off with Martin, he is taking on C.C. Sabathia, an aged left hander that has struggled against righties for a while now. In 2015, Sabathia gave up a .370 wOBA and a 4.31 xFIP to right handers. With his increasing age and decreasing velocity, we can expect his production to go down even more. Russell Martin on the other hand, hit lefties extremely well over the past 3 years with a .386 wOBA and a 34.2% hard contact rate. Martin is my favorite cash game play and I like him in tournaments as well.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.97
Sure, Yadier Molina is no fun to roster. He lacks power and hits in the bottom of the Cardinals order. However, let's look at the positives. The Cardinals are facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate and Molina will have plenty of RBI and run scoring opportunities. While Molina doesn't have too much power upside, he has 11 doubles against right handers this season. Molina is a great cash game play tonight as he has a ton of safety in this match up.
Consider - Evan Gattis
Byung-ho Park FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.58
Byung-ho Park has entered the majors this year and has already proven his power upside with 9 home runs and a 41.2% hard contact rate. He enters into a match up here with Erik Surkamp, a left handed pitcher that has given up a .377 wOBA to righties over the course of his career. Surkamp is young and there may be some impending improvement, however, he has not shown any signs of that at this point. His 5.41 SIERA and 5.16 xFIP suggest those improvements will not come anytime soon. Byung-ho Park is a great play in all formats, on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @COL
FD - 14.26 DK - 10.89
The Rockies and Reds meet up once again tonight after a 19 run game last night. While it is very difficult to predict that again, it is never out of the question in Coors Field. The Rockies are taking on Jon Moscot tonight, a right handed pitcher that has struggled over his short major league career. Dating back to 2015, Moscot has sported a 6.02 SIERA and a .346 wOBA. Mark Reynolds on the other hand, has been good against righties this season with a .367 wOBA and 112 wRC+. Reynolds is a great cash game and tournament play due to the opposition and ballpark.
Consider - Adam Lind
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.46 DK - 9.06
Dozier has been hitting extremely well over the last 5 games with a hit in each and 2 extra base hits. While that is not a good stat to use to predict the future, it is always nice to see a guy swinging the bat well. Dating back to 2014, Dozier has hit lefties well with a .347 wOBA and a 34.2% hard contact rate. As previously mentioned, Eric Surkamp is a lefty that has struggled immensely against both righties and lefties. Dozier is a quality play in both cash games and tournaments. This Twins team is in a great spot and Dozier is one of the best hitters on the team.
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @COL
FD - 12.51 DK - 10.66
If this game was in anywhere besides Coors Field, LeMahieu would be out of play. However, that's not the case. This game is sitting at an 11 over/under, which puts everyone in play to a degree. Second base is not a deep position, which makes Lemahieu a much better play than if he was at a more plentiful position. LeMahieu has hit righties pretty well over the last 3 seasons with a .312 wOBA and has backed it up with a solid 30% hard contact rate. I am comfortable with Lemahieu in both tournaments and cash games if he is hitting above 7th in the lineup.
Consider - Robinson Cano
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.54
Aledmys Diaz has entered into the majors this season and has demolished both lefties and righties. He will be facing off with Wily Peralta today, a right handed pitcher that has had serious issues against righties. Peralta has sported a .461 wOBA against righties and while he may not be that bad, his peripherals suggest he is going to legitimately struggle against righties. Diaz on the other hand, has sported a .400 wOBA and a 36.2% hard contact rate against righties. Diaz is a great play in both cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel where he is only $2900.
Consider - Carlos Correa
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.95 DK - 10.62
You probably know us well enough by now to realize we aren't going to let a soft southpaw match up in the Rogers Centre go by without recommending Donaldson. That .250 batting average is no doubt disappointing in your season-long league and probably every DFS player in the universe has been burned by a Donaldson this season, but don't waver. He's still mashing lefties (.478 wOBA, 1.150 OPS). Granted the sample size is small, but it only serves as confirmation for what Donaldson has done throughout his career. Take advantage of the discounted prices and play him at will today. He is a fantastic play in both cash games and tournaments, and is close to a must play on FanDuel where he is only $3900.
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @COL
FD - 15.75 DK - 12.21
Arenado is in the same boat as both Mark Reynolds and DJ Lemahieu. However, he is a MUCH MUCH better player than either of those guys are. In 2015, Arenado sported a .388 wOBA against righties and backed it up with a 37.7% hard contact rate. As previously mentioned a few times, Moscot is a below average pitcher and will struggle big time against the Rockies in Coors Field. Make sure you get some exposure to this offense and Arenado is a great way to do so.
Consider - Matt Carpenter, Kyle Seager
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @COL
FD - 12.87 DK - 10.69
What more is there to say? Parra has hit righties well over the last 2 seasons with a .368 wOBA and a 34.2% hard contact rate. As you can tell, we expect these Rockies to go berserk tonight and score a bunch of runs. To add onto Coors Field and the great match up, this Reds bullpen is atrocious. Make sure to get some exposure to this offense one way or another.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.43
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.11 DK - 9.42
The Cardinals are another team that we love tonight and that is mostly due to the great match up against Wily Peralta and the superb ballpark that is Miller Park. Both Hazelbaker and Holliday have hit righties extremely well in 2016 with a +3.30 wOBA. Holliday hit a 466 foot home run yesterday and will look to recreate that performance tonight against the below average Wily Peralta. Both of these guys are great options in both cash games and tournaments.
Consider - Aaron Hicks, Hyun-soo Kim, Nelson Cruz, Seth Smith
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View Comments
Where is the guy that thinks DFS is fixed because the top 2 lineups had Jason Castro? That was awesome! I hope he comes back when he is finished checking his phone for bugs.
Anyone ever scroll the leader boards and try and figure out how in the world " Saahlisud "can guess right so many damn times? I'm only doing one lineup tonight for the 50k grand prize bc days like today the sharks just ruin it with hundreds of entries...but ganondorf, saahlisud, ehafner, oneistheloneliest guaranteed one of these names will be at the top....im only donating 5$ lol
This is one of the differences between doing DFS for a living and doing it as a hobby. The latter is fine, but the gents you mentioned above doing this as their 9-5 (or more) job. Part of that increased edge is multi-entry GPP strategies. They employ this to pick off underowned players along the margins. It's a high variance approach in that many, many times these lineups will finish out of the money. But when their baseline players hit, along with the contrarian plays (i.e. Castro) then you of course will see them finishing high in the money.
To be clear. It's luck in the idea that Castro was awesome yesterday, but their strategy isn't luck based, or rigged or whatever. It's a game theory piece that allows them to have more lineup variations to increase odds. They are using bankroll to play an edge.
That was ridiculous. Castro is an everyday catcher and has been hitting the ball really well lately. It was just a matter of time before it started producing results. Unfortunately it is those types of ill informed comments and perceptions that will be a problem for DFS.
Those players are putting in an enormous time of research, following the game closely and have a big bankroll using many many lineups
How do you feel about peavy tonight? Birthday magic for him or no?
I DK offered more single entry tourny options. The only one to my knowledge is the $1 one with only a couple thousand entries. If they could throw in some $3 or $5 single entry games, people would play them just to get out of the shark infested waters.
DK has single entry at all price points, you just have to reserve your spot the night before because they fill up quick. They also have 3 entry max tournaments that are mostly avoided by the big players. Just don't expect a $50k grand prize, lol
Thanks Rick...will start looking earlier.
Weather will be tricky today
Exactly Doug and on FD if they like a stack they will throw in multiple player lineups without knowing if they will be in lineup after lock, thereby eliminating a majority of the field
No worries Anthony. FYI, on DK you can reserve the spot the night before without having to input a lineup. Just be aware that you have to have players in the lineup by lock to be able to adjust lineups after games start.