Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other stacking targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and pitching breakdown but here we will look at other guys to consider.
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Good God, there are some incredibly awful pitchers going today. It's probably a cop out to say "you can stack almost every team", so let's get to some of the most solid ones.
(Hitter stats provided are vs. the handiness of the pitcher they are facing)
The Baltimore Orioles vs. Mike Clevinger
Through 10 and a third innings this season, Mike Clevinger has allowed 10 earned runs. That's less than good. It's also just 10 innings, so we probably should look at his broader body of work. The truth about Clevinger is that he's really only been good at one stop throughout the minors - 158 innings in double A last year - and other than that he's been pretty underwhelming. Vegas has this at a 9 over/under, which is the 2nd highest non-Coors line of the day, and early returns have sharps pounding the over. All in all, people who know things think Clevinger is going to get rocked here.
So who are our prime candidates? Chris Davis is an obvious choice, given his tendency to crush right handed pitching. But Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop have also posted reverse platoon splits throughout their careers, favoring match-ups against righties. Even Mark Trumbo is topping a .900 OPS against right handers this season. Pedro Alvarez is .200 OPS points better against righties for his career. Don't be surprised if the Orioles chase Clevinger early and feast on the Indians' long men for a few innings here.
San Francisco Giants vs. Chris Rusin (COL)
To absolutely no one's surprise, given that the game is in Coors. I won't regale you with all of the minor details here, except to point out that Chris Rusin has the displeasure of being both a pitcher in Coors and being left handed. The game has the highest over-under by a full run (10.5), and the Giants have put up the 10th highest wOBA against left handed pitchers in all of baseball this season in spite of playing half of their games in their dismal home park. The prime targets here are Buster Posey and whoever bats near him, even if the Giants do trot out a left handed batter at basically every position.
The Seattle Mariners vs. Ricky Nolasco
Ricky Nolasco has firmly established himself as one of the most mediocre pitchers of the last ten years - consistently underperforming his xFIP thanks to his uncanny ability to give up hard contact up in the zone. He generates ground balls just 40% of the time, and tends to make mistakes up in the zone with his less than impressive fastball - leading to lots of big innings. He's also been notoriously bad out of the stretch. His career 68% LOB (left on base percentage) is just awful. And while one season of a low LOB% can signal bad luck, making a career out of it usually indicates something more. Well, Nolasco has stranded a league worst 57% of his base-runners this season, and it seems like a prime time to pile on.
The Mariners meanwhile boast a sea of left handed bats for him to wade through. There are obvious candidates like Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, but there are sneakier candidates like Adam Lind (whose 42% hard contact rate is the best of his career, and looks positively bound for a bounce-back). Nori Aoki has been almost .300 OPS points better against righties this season as well. This game's low over/under will keep people off the scent to some degree, which means you can get real separation by throwing them out there in a big tourney.
The Pittsburgh Pirates against Martin Perez in Texas
Great hitters park, for starters. The highest non-Coors over/under as well. For all of Martin Perez's prospect hype, he's been nothing short of awful since joining the major league roster. Don't let the smooth ERA fool you - Perez's 5.52/4.68 K:BB/9 this season points to a man whose ERA is ready to burst, and this home match-up against the Pirates is a prime spot for it to happen.
As for the particulars, you've got a pile of options here. Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte will be chalk plays, but there are a lot of other great guys as well. David Freese has been mashing lefties since before it was cool, and his .936 OPS against them this season is only a little better than what we can expect of him going forward. Both Josh Harrison and Francisco Cervelli have been .100 OPS points or more better against lefties as well. The Buccos are heavy favorites to pile on Perez here, and they make a great tier 2 stack after the Giants/Rockies game.
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View Comments
Brad Miller is on TB now
How can we take things seriously when you talk about players that don't even play on that team anymore?!
Because I wrote the article late last night, was tired, and made a mistake. Good luck!
Yesterday was a good day. Hoping today is as well. Thanks:)
Don't forget about Jordy Mercer in a Bucco's stack. He's hitting leadoff and does well historically against LHP.