Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Two short slates is going to make it tough to find meaningful differentiation in tournaments today and at some positions it'll be a challenge to even find a usable dude (good luck finding a SS who's not 30 percent owned in tourneys on the early slate).
Luckily, we've got Jose Fernandez and Red Sox to see us through. The lineups are starting to trickle in, so let's get to it.
Personnel
Boston Red Sox
As we wrote yesterday, there's really no way to get around the Red Sox right now. They're dominating the league in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS, and those aren't just empty stats. They're translating in a very real way to runs on the scoreboard. Today's victim foe is Colorado youngster Jonathan Gray. In theory, he's got the stuff to derail the Red Sox juggernaut, but he's also got blow-up potential as was on display in his last outing when the Cardinals touched him up for nine runs in 3.2 innings. I might scale back my Boston exposure a tiny bit based on Gray's elite strikeout stuff, but there's no way I'm fading them. One note: Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts were pulled from last night's game with injuries. Neither is thought to be serious, and Pedroia has said he's playing today, but management may have other ideas.
Toronto Blue Jays
It was supposed to be the Blue Jays, not the BoSox, with the offense crushing the league in 2016. But so far, that hasn't come to fruition. Nonetheless, we're loading up on Toronto righties against CC Sabathia today. The prices are down, especially for Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion on FanDuel, but they're still putting up massive numbers in their opportunities vs. southpaws this year, and Sabathia ain't the guy he used to be. The underlying stats say he's been the beneficiary of some good luck with regard to homers and that could be coming to an end today. Yankees Stadium is widely known for its hitter-friendly porch in right, but it's a top-10 venue for right-handed home run factors, as well.
This will make the third straight day we've recommended a Braves pitcher in this space, and so far it's worked out pretty well on sites where wins aren't super important. And here's something you don't see every day: the Braves are actually favored to win this one (thanks, Wily Peralta!). As we've talked about plenty this week, the Brewers are the most strikeout-prone team in MLB against RHP, and Turner Field does a solid job of suppressing offense. Wisler should be able to take advantage of that. He's been pitching well lately, with back-to-back seven-K outings, and while he's due for some home run regression, chances are that won't come while he's pitching at home. I'll have less exposure on FanDuel and other sites that value wins highly, because ugh. The Braves offense. But they should be able to scratch across some runs against Peralta, and at these prices, Wisler will have good chance to return solid value in all formats.
We don't often include a pitcher here, so when one shows up in each of the top 10 optimal lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it gives you a sense of how strongly the projection system feels about the matchup. Looking at Fernandez vs. the Rays, it's easy to understand why. The 23-year-old righty is mowing guys down at an incredible rate through nine starts (13.09 Ks/9), and while his command has been spotty, his overall numbers haven't suffered because of it. His 3.02 ERA is actually higher than his FIP (2.36) and xFIP (2.60), and while Tampa Bay has shown surprising power this season, we're not letting that back us down today. They strike out more than any team in the league other than the Brewers vs. RHP, and Tropicana Field is one of the top-10 pitcher's parks in MLB. That gives us a rare combo of safety plus upside with Fernandez, and we'll be using him heavily in all formats today.
Donaldson gets the slight edge here over Manny Machado, and he's especially attractive on FanDuel where his price remains too low. While his overall numbers are somewhat disappointing, there's no fault to be found in his stats vs. lefties. His 1.150 OPS and .478 wOBA in the split won't last for the duration of the season, but he's a well-established lefty killer, with career marks of .982 and .417 against southpaws. Sabathia doesn't have the stuff to contain that kind of talent, and neither does Yankee Stadium.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
Now let's see what LU surprises TOR and NYY can come up with.
Call me crazy but I'm stacking the braves today
Well I got slaughtered for a couple months before I learned basketball, and same with baseball, although, I've cashed 3 straight nights in GPP! I think I may be finally figuring out baseball! My tips from a beginner
1. When going against weak pitchers, don't fell like you just have to play stars, plays some of the weaker/cheaper hitters. Last night I played Boston's Swihart....and it was a beautiful thing!
2. Dont' overstack. It's got to be a really special night for 5 guys from the same team to go off. And if the team goes cold, you are screwed alltogether.
3 Don't be afraid to go off the grid a bit. Last night, I knew everyone was on Miami, I faded them alltogether, and went with Seattle. Smith and Seager were like 2% owned.
4. West coast teams are generally under owned
5. Finally....unless you are a big money player, play with ONE lineup, and 2 at most if you want 1 cash, 1 GPP. But do your research and be confident with your picks
I like 1 lineup in the NBA. MLB DFS has so much variance that I don't mind using a few different lineups, especially In GPPs, though I don't invest too much into them. West coast teams are always under-owned, a few Mariners stacks stole a few tournaments last night.
Well said Mr. Lowe. I agree with every single one of your points. I find myself falling into the trap of rolling with the obvious stacks in GPPs, only to be lumped in with the masses and no real shot of cashing big. The key in the GPPs is finding those low owned gems that will set your lineup apart. And I completely agree about using just one lineup. I will sometimes roll out two (one cash, one GPP) if i like a particular stack or value pitcher. It can get to be a costly venture in MLB if you try to construct lineups to fit in everyone you think has a pulse for the night.
royals and Braves can win you some Gpps tonight
Royals could get rained down out unfortunately..
Speaking of: where is today's weather article? Almost every game has some rain in the area today
I'm numerous lineups that have guys in risky weather situations so I'm hoping we can discuss this further.
I have players at Wash, ATL, & KC. Thinking of rolling the dice but any input on if I should avoid would be nice.
Thanks!
In continuation to my above post I just pulled my guys from the KC game. I don't like my lineups as much but that game seems to carry the most weather risk. Thoughts?
Bryce Harper vs Charlie Blackmon today?