Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/25/16

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

Every MLB team is in action today, with an even split of seven early games, followed by an eight-game slate tonight. What's less evenly distributed, however, is the pitching. The aces on the schedule are all throwing early, which presents some interesting choices for both tournaments and cash games on each slate. Let's get to it.

Personnel

• Bryce Harper is getting the day off. Chris Heisey is starting in RF and hitting seventh.
• Mike Moustakas remains out for the Royals. Cheslor Cuthbert is getting the start today and hitting seventh.
• Brian Dozier is back in the Twins lineup and hitting second today.
• Ian Kinsler is sitting again today due to an illness. Mike Aviles is playing second and hitting eighth, while Cameron Maybin will bat leadoff.
• Wil Myers is expected to miss today's game with a forearm issue.
• The Giants have placed Angel Pagan on the DL with a hamstring injury.

Tournament Stacks

Boston Red Sox
We're getting to the point that stacking anybody other than the Red Sox is going to be considered a contrarian play. They're again slated for the highest total by Vegas (by a pretty good margin) after pounding out eight runs and 12 hits last night. Rockies starter Chad Bettis actually hasn't been bad this year, but this pick is really all about the continued magnificence of the Boston lineup. The Red Sox lead the league in wOBA by nearly .20 points and they're almost equally dangerous against lefties and righties. The top of the lineup is the chalk play, of course, and it's the safer bet. But with red-hot Jackie Bradley Jr. anchoring the bottom half, you can probably find differentiation with some exposure there.

Tampa Bay Rays
And now for something completely different. While the Red Sox are loaded with established and emerging stars, you'd never guess by scanning the roster that the Rays are actually one of MLB's best power-hitting teams this season. They're tied with the Orioles and Mets for most home runs on the year, and they rank fifth in MLB in wOBA vs. LHP, and lead the AL in ISO in the split. Which brings us to Justin Nicolino, the Glass Joe of the NL East. Looking at the numbers, it's mind-boggling that the 24-year-old lefty has managed to earn a win in two of his five starts. Skeptical? Let's take a look: In 29 IP he has a grand total of six Ks with 11 walks, his hard contact rate is nearly 37 percent, and his swinging strike rate is 3 percent. It adds up to an xFIP of 5.76, which is in line with his career number of 5.43. Even in a pitcher-friend park like the Trop, he's ripe for a severe bruising.

Sneaky Pitcher

Mike Foltynewicz

Consider this a test of your level of trust in the venerable projection system. A few things about this pick: First, the night slate is pretty ugly when it comes to pitching. Pretty much all the reliable arms are throwing in the early games, leaving us with Steven Wright and Scott Kazmir as two of the highest-priced pitchers tonight. I'm expecting Folty's counterpart in the game, Junior Guerra, to actually be among the highest-owned starters, and that's a big reason we're pivoting away when we're looking for somebody sneaky. Guerra looks like the safer bet here; he's been pitching pretty well this season, he's coming off of an 11-K outing, and he's throwing against Atlanta, which is always attractive. So what do we like about Folty? Just ask Julio Teheran. He was our pick in this space yesterday and came through with 7 IP, 12 Ks, three hits, one run, and no walks. Alas, the win escaped us, because the Braves offense remains the Braves offense. But the same reasons we targeted him yesterday are driving today's pick, as well. The Brewers strike out more than any team in the league against RHP, and the ballpark suppresses power. Foltynewicz has a nice prospect pedigree, with nice velocity and a solid K rate in the minors. He hasn't been posting huge strikeout numbers in the majors, but he has displayed much better control in four starts this season. Of course, there's a reason he's coming cheap. Of those four starts, two were awful, including his last time out against Pittsburgh. But against Milwaukee we think there's a solid chance he comes through with something closer to his previous two outings (eight scoreless innings vs. Kansas City, and 7 IP, 8 Ks and 2 ER vs. Arizona). As always with Atlanta, his win potential is diminished by a lack of expected run support, but he's worth a long look in tournaments, especially on sites where getting a W is less important.

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Mike Trout

If a couple hundred words on some dude named Foltynewicz has you thirsting for some chalk, we've got you covered here. It might be tougher to fit in the Angels superstar CF on the day slate where the higher-priced pitching options are more appetizing, but the projection system is all over Trout in this matchup against Colby Lewis. Global Life Park in Arlington is an excellent place to hit, ranking in the top five in 2015 for overall park factors, and while Lewis has posted some solid surface numbers this season, we're not quite buying it. His 4.20 xFIP is still hovering about a 1.5 runs over his ERA and he's still the low-K, high-HR fly ball pitcher he's always been. Meanwhile, Mike Trout is one of the best hitters of his generation. Still only 24 years old, he's remarkably pacing toward his fifth straight year with a wOBA north of .400 and his career numbers are actually slightly better against RHP. The hesitation with Trout usually comes from his cost and the fact that he's got very little help in the Angels lineup. But we don't see either as a substantial impediment today; Vegas has the Angels pegged to score some runs, and while Trout will be among the most expensive hitters on every site, he's not priced out of consideration in this matchup.

Carlos Gonzalez

A recent slump has CarGo's price severely depressed, and we think it's time to buy low. It's unlikely we'll be able to get him at these prices for the rest of the season, and he's showing signs that he might be snapping out of the May doldrums. The problem seems to stem from a dramatic increase in his infield fly rate, which is more than twice as high as his 2014 and 2015 numbers, and is sapping his power potential. An interesting note about his opponent: Steven Wright hasn't coaxed an infield fly all season. And while he doesn't have a lengthy MLB track record, pop ups just don't look like they're part of the knuckleballer's profile, as his IFFB% is just 3.4 in his career. Aside from that, the underlying numbers say Wright's due for some regression. He's done a great job of limiting home runs this season, but his 4.09 xFIP suggests that won't last (and with knuckleballers, it usually doesn't). Fenway Park is pretty tough on left-handed power, but the good thing about CarGo's low cost is a long ball would be a bonus and he looks like a good bet to return value in one way or another.

One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!