Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/24/16 Playoffs

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Here's what James wrote about this matchup the other day, and given that Draymond Green wasn't suspended, it still holds true.

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis
The hay-makers in this series, my god. Westbrook and Durant responded to a game 2 drubbing by pitching simultaneous perfect games. 20-34 from the field, and 21-23 from the line. I'm still speechless. Is it possible that the Thunder had the highest ceiling of any team all along, because they have two guys that can put up games like this, and not just one?

Now, as you can probably guess by now, this actually doesn't change our projections a whole heck of a lot. Minutes go haywire in blowouts, and the guys we figured would be good on a per-minute basis pretty much were. As for the worry about future blowouts, I suspect things will regulate somewhat and we'll get a high-speed thriller instead of a lopsided blowout. I don't blame you if you just want to grab as many pieces from this game as you can, since they're still pretty reasonably priced.

Top Plays
Stephen Curry - FD 9900 DK 10700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 52.41 DK Proj. Pts - 56.83
Curry's final line looked generally crappy in game 3, but on a per-minute basis it wasn't a whole lot worse than what he'd been doing earlier in the series. If you think he's going to go 2 days listening to hot takes about how he might be the third best player in this series! then you're sorely mistaken. He's still very reasonably priced and should be a favorite to put up 5x+ points per dollar in this game.

Klay Thompson - FD 7400 DK 7900
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 37.31 DK Proj. Pts - 41.42
The minutes are headed in the wrong direction here, but I think we saw what Golden State wants to do with Klay in game 1. 40+ minutes, 40ish fantasy points, and a very active role in both defending Westbrook and on the offensive end. I think he's a cheapish value play for what we could see from him here.

A note on Draymond Green: He's taking a back seat too much in this series for me to want to take a stab on him given the prices of the other superstars in this series. He's just the odd man out.

Russell Westbrook - FD 9800 DK 11100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Kevin Durant - FD 9800 DK 10300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.18
Nothing to be said here that I haven't already said, except for some mind-blowing per-minute stats. 107 fantasy points total in 64 minutes. That's, wow. We can expect some regression here, perhaps, but they're still cheaper than they will be the next time we get a crack at them in the future. I'm all in on both once again.

Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 6400
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
Though this one is a little bit more speculative, given the, ahem, injury concerns. Adams missed some time after taking some damage to his delicate parts, and stayed out of the game because it was out of hand. I think we'll see him back in full force for game 4, but I'm proceeding with at least a little caution on a 2 game slate given that we won't have any game time status for him by tomorrow in all likelihood. Still, if this is a knock-down drag 'em out game, Adams will play a huge role and is easily the safest center on a points per dollar basis.

Serge Ibaka - FD 5200 DK 5300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.10 DK Proj. Pts - 28.84
This is my one addition to this game, and it comes on the heels of Billy Donovan revealing his own "small ball" lineup with Ibaka at the 5. Given how much success this lineup had in Game 3, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see OKC utilize this matchup more in Game 4. This gives Ibaka a serious boost in value, and coupled with the fact that Kevin Love has been struggling and is perhaps injured, Ibaka looks like the clear cut PF favorite from a PPD standpoint.

Dion Waiters - FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 17.8 DK Proj. Pts - 18.98
Doug wrote this last time around, and it still holds true:
He's a better DFS fit on these short slates when he's coming off the bench mostly because he doesn't get caught in the OKC scoring shuffle. Running with the second unit opens up more shots for Waiters and the minutes are enough for the price tag.

Consider Andre Iguodala/ Harrison Barnes as cheap SF types.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Analysis
Who in the heck saw this one coming? After getting absolutely embarrassed in Games 1 & 2 in Cleveland, Toronto has responded in such a way that convinces me that Cleveland could actually be in some trouble in this series. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were absolutely sensational in Game 3, combining for an unthinkable 28-43 from the field in route to 67 points between the pair. Now is that likely to continue on the road in Game 5? Probably not as both of these guys have struggled some on the road this postseason, but still the confidence boost is something to keep in mind. Bismack Biyombo had another great game, and with Valanciunas looking like he's ready to play, the Raptors have all of the momentum rolling into Game 5 at the Q.

Now for Cleveland, Game 4 revealed that they should have some real concerns moving into Game 5. The biggest concern is that the poor 3-point shooting continued as they went 13-41 as a team, and it appears that Toronto is no longer resembling the team that played tissue paper strength defense on the interior in Games 1 & 2. Kyrie Irving bounced back to have a nice game but Kevin Love struggled again, and didn't even play in the 4th quarter (partly due to an ankle injury so we're told). Outside of Lebron, Kyrie, and oddly enough, Channing Frye, the entire Cavs team struggled to produce any real consistent offense. With all the talk of the team's struggles, I fully expect them to play better at home in Game 5, and take a 3-2 series lead when it's all said and done.

Top Plays
Cleveland
LeBron James - FD 9800 DK 10800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.41 DK Proj. Pts - 55.54
To be honest with you, this already has the feeling of one of those signature superstar games in which one player is so utterly dominant that he almost single-handedly carries his team to a victory. Lebron shot an incredible 69% from the floor in Game 4, but only took 16 shots throughout the game. I know that he prefers to get his teammates involved, and he still probably will, but given the magnitude of the situation I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Lebron get closer to 22-25 shots in this one. Look for James to put up some massive numbers in this one.

Kyrie Irving - FD 7100 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.54 DK Proj. Pts - 40.66
After really struggling in Game 3, it was a good sign for the Cavs that Irving found his shot in Game 4. Not only that, but he was doing a better job of distributing as well, given that he had 6 assists (as opposed to just 1 in Game 3). With Kevin Love and others struggling, Kyrie becomes an even more important part of this offense moving forward into Game 5. Outside of Lebron, he's the only guy on the Cavs who can consistently get his own shot, and the way the Raptors are playing defense Cleveland is going to need a big game from Kyrie. Expect the Kyrie we saw in Games 1 & 2 to show up for Game 5.

Channing Frye - FD 4000 DK 3200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 13.5 DK Proj. Pts - 14.92
The biggest beneficiary from the struggles of Love has got to be Frye, who has quietly put together back to back solid games in this series. He's shot the 3-ball extremely well in this series (11-19), and while he's not the best defender in the world, he's not much of a drop-off from Love. Given the way the Cavs played Game 4 down the stretch, if Love shows that he's struggling early on in Game 5 (assuming his ankle is fine, which is something else to keep an eye on today), Frye could see some bigger minutes off the bench in this one.

Toronto

DeMar DeRozan - FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 38.52 DK Proj. Pts - 39.57
Kyle Lowry - FD 8600 DK 8500
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 40.32 DK Proj. Pts - 42.8
While I don't expect either of these guys to perform quite as well as they have been playing at home, it's hard to ignore the amount of confidence both Lowry and DeRozan are carrying into Game 5. DeRozan has been great scoring the basketball throughout this series, and Lowry now appears to be rounding into All-star form. If Valanciunas were to return, it could create some more space on the outside for these guys to operate because Cleveland would actually have to worry about a scoring presence on the interior. Lowry feels like the safer play given that he's less reliant on scoring, but given the other PG's on the slate I'd be more likely to lean DeRozan if I had to pick between the two.

That's about the extent of the guys I like from Toronto. If Valanciunas plays, Biyombo's value obviously takes a big hit and I wouldn't trust Valanciunas to produce at his price level until I see just how healthy he is. But if Valanciunas sits again then Biyombo certainly deserves a look.

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