Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 5/23/16
Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and hitter stacks but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.
Pitching Targets
Note: We discussed Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto in the Main Article, and will be going over a few more options below.
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 35.25 DK - 19.01
I'm going to start off by saying the Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto and Gio Gonzalez are all excellent cash options (and my favorite options on the slate), but I will be talking about a few GPP plays I like on today's slate in this article.
The first guy on the list is Vincent Velasquez. He will be going up against the Detroit Tigers tonight, which is never an easy task, but I love the ceiling this matchup provides him with. You might ask yourself "Velasquez has upside against the Tigers? This guy is insane." And the answer to that question is -- I might be a little crazy, but he sure does have upside.
The Tigers have a lineup that showcases a lot of power, but with power, there are always side effects. The side effect the Tigers face due to their power are strikeouts. They own a 23.4 K% (6th in MLB) against right-handed pitching. Not only do they strikeout a ton, but they are very impatient at the plate. They own a 6.8 BB% versus right-handed pitching. With the Tigers not walking much, this will help Vincent's pitch-count, and will help him stay in the ballgame longer.
Not only does the matchup provide Velasquez with a tremendous ceiling, but he is a guy that has a high ceiling on any given night; regardless of his matchup, as he owns a 30.9 K%. We all love pitchers that can fan hitters on our fantasy teams and boy does Vincent do just that! He also owns a 3.01 SIERA and 3.21 xFIP, which shows us he's as good as his numbers suggest. While a matchup against the Tigers is never one to get excited about, Velasquez has the stuff to put on a show. Gotta love his upside tonight.
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIN
FD - 32.99 DK - 17.62
Now if you call me crazy, I would understand. Rostering Ian Kennedy into your lineups is never an easy task, but I love his upside as well. And hey -- This is a GPP article for crying out loud!
Let's talk about Ian Kennedy first. He will be going up against Ricky Nolasco tonight, which gives him a solid chance to pick up the win. If the Royals are able to put up some runs early in the ball game, this will allow Kennedy to breathe a little, pitch comfortably and deliver a quality start. While I don't think Kennedy is a pitcher you should put your entire bankroll on, I do think he is a guy that will be very low owned and has a nice ceiling. He owns a 24.8% and has a nice matchup against the Twins.
The Twins own a 23.4 K% (5th in MLB) against right-handed pitching. This gives Kennedy the upside you look for when selecting a pitcher for tournaments. Not only do they struggle putting the ball in play, but they also struggle in the other offensive departments. They own an 86 wRC+ (26th in MLB), .298 wOBA (25th in MLB) and .149 ISO (19th in MLB) against right-handed pitching. They have had their struggles against righties, so Kennedy is worth a shot in tournaments. He has a nice matchup and big K upside.
Opponent - SEA (Walker) Park - @SEA
FD - 33.54 DK - 17.13
I have talked about two guys with upside, so I will go ahead and talk about one more guy with upside, just for you guys! And that guy is -- Rich Hill!
Hill will be going up against the Mariners, which is no easy task, but similar to Velasquez (the matchup not being the best, but the pitcher has tremendous upside), I will go ahead and plug him into some tournament lineups. Hill has come out of nowhere in 2016, and at the age of 36, he is putting in work! He owns a 2.91 FIP to go along with a 28.4 K% (not a typo). The matchup against the Mariners is not an appealing one, as they hit lefties well, [but] Hill owns a 0.36 HR/9 and 49.2 GB%, which will help him limit damage.
The matchup isn't the best, but you got to love Hill's upside for tournaments.
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View Comments
I'm a little confused over the optimizer game filter for the 8:10pm Cle/CWS (CWS/CWS2) thing going on. I think I know what it's supposed to be but it's bringing up goofy results.
Yup. I'm working on that. Basically passing through projections in a doubleheader is one of our bigger data pain points. I'm testing in the live environment if it can be done correctly. Shortly I'll either give up and list on the first the game (and then switch over as soon as it starts at 5) or fix and get it working. Thanks for the patience.
One caveat to your Velasquez call: young NL pitchers going to AL parks is not a good mix. The tigers have a couple of week spots but not as glaring as the typical 8-9 for an NL club.
Hey Marc, I agree. The matchup isn't a great one like I mentioned. However , Ido like the upside he has going up against the Tigers
I think Kennedy is a great play today, if the weather holds up here in KC. It's sunny now with some light clouds rollin. Nothing bad, yet! Will post closer to game time.
Cory weather in minnesota more a concern for me than in KC hope that's what you meant
These are all tournament plays that have big upside, but of course a low floor.
Thanks Cory!
Thoughts on Pomeranz as second pitcher? thx..
@Deepak
Pomeranz has been excellent this season and I like him as a SP2.
Thanks Nick!