Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw throws against the New York Mets during the first inning in Game 1 of baseball's National League Division Series, Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Welcome to Monday baseball! We have a fun 10 game slate with some aces and a few gas cans on the mound. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on some more pitching options, tournament stacks and weather info. Let's get into the top options at each position!
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Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @LAD
FD - 48.02 DK - 27.48
There is absolutely no reason to not plug Kershaw into all of your cash games and at least the majority or your tournaments. Speaking realistically, Kershaw is one of the best pitchers of all time. Come at me. Over the last 5 years, Kershaw has sported a combined wOBA of .236 and an egregious 22.6% hard contact rate. While the Reds have put up some runs this year, most of them have been at home. Thus far into 2016, the Reds have held the absolute lowest road wOBA in the league at atrocious .279. This stadium is certainly a pitchers one as evidenced by its bottom third power rating in 2015. Kershaw will have no problem shutting these guys down and has as much upside as you could ever ask for.
Opponent - SD (Pomeranz) Park - @SF
FD - 49.39 DK - 28.23
In tournaments, it is not a horrible idea to pivot off of Kershaw and onto Cueto with hopes of a similar game at a lower price. That will do two things for you. It will give you the ability to pay up for bigger bats and it will give you a much lower owned lineup for tournaments. Cueto has been very good this year with a .272 wOBA and a 2.82 xFIP to back it up. As you surely know, the Padres are the worst team in the league against righties with a .272 wOBA and 69 wRC+. This ballpark may not be as bad as Petco Park for hitters, however, it is as close as you will find. It is going to be nearly impossible for any of these guys outside of Kemp to even come close to a home run. As a side note, Cueto is the best pitcher in baseball at holding runners which is a big deal against the Padres who rely on base stealing to manufacture runs.
Consider - Rich Hill, Gio Gonzalez
Opponent - CHW (Johnson) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.38 DK - 7.21
The catcher position is really ugly tonight and my far and away top option is Yan Gomes. Gomes has historically smashed righties and has finally started doing so in 2016 as well. Over the past 3 seasons, Gomes has hit righties to a .342 wOBA with the majority of those at-bats coming in pitcher friendly Progressive Field. Erik Johnson on the other hand, has been bad against righties with a .319 wOBA dating back to 2014. While Gomes is no lock, he is as close to a lock as you will find at this horrible position.
Opponent - SD (Pomeranz) Park - @SF
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.65
Posey is in play here for one reason - he is facing a lefty. Posey has demolished lefties dating back to 2010 with a .404 wOBA and .568 SLG. On the contrary, Pomeranz is a really good pitcher and is someone I never look to target guys against. However, he has had his fair share of struggle against righties. Dating back to 2014, Pomeranz has given up a .322 wOBA to righties. Posey is a tournament only play for me as Yan Gomes is in a much better match up and ballpark.
Opponent - CHW (Johnson) Park - @CHW
FD - 14.54 DK - 11.01
First base is a very deep position today and is one you will need to get some production from. Santana is our second Indian here against Erik Johnson in U.S Cellular Field. Although I mentioned how bad Johnson has been against righties, he has been worse against lefties. Dating back 3 years, Johnson has given up a .376 wOBA and 14% HR/FB rate. Carlos Santana is a switch hitter and has hit righties much for much more power as 90 of his 125 home runs have came off of righties. This ballpark ranked as number 7 last year for left handed power, which is a huge upgrade from Progressive Field.
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 11.66 DK - 8.91
Trust me, I know how hard it is to plug Ryan Howard into your lineup. However, it is something we have to consider when Mike Pelfrey is standing 60 feet away on the mound. Pelfrey has been absolutely horrible against lefties over the past 5 years with a .382 wOBA and 37.2% hard contact rate. Touching back on Ryan Howard, he has hit righties well over the past 2 years with a .341 wOBA and .243 isolated power. The one problem here is the pitchers park, however, Howard has the pure power to hit it out anywhere. While Howard will likely be a popular play on FanDuel, he has a very good shot to homer tonight. I do prefer him in tournaments as he is still Ryan Howard.
Opponent - CHW (Johnson) Park - @CHW
FD - 15.03 DK - 12.19
Here is the 3rd of 4 Indians and this one is quite possibly in the best match up of all. As mentioned, Johnson has had trouble against both righties and lefties throughout his career and is going to struggle in this match up. Kipnis has lit righties up over the past couple years as evidenced by his wOBA of .372 dating back to 2014. Kipnis gives you power and speed upside at a position that lacks both. I am comfortable with him in both tournaments and cash games.
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.96 DK - 7.92
Dozier and the Twins are taking on homer prone Ian Kennedy at home in Target Field. In 2015, Kennedy gave up the 3rd most home runs in the league at 31. His 4.27 xFIP and 34.2% hard contact rate supports the theory that Kennedy is just washed up at age 31. Brian Dozier on the other hand, exhibited reverse splits in 2015 with a .327 wOBA and .786 OPS against righties. While this ballpark is not ideal, it ranked slightly above average last season for right handed power.
Consider - Rougned Odor, Howie Kendrick
Opponent - CHW (Johnson) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.94 DK - 10.78
What more is there to say? Lindor is another guy on the Indians that has hit righties extremely well since entering the league as evidenced by a .339 wOBA and .392 OBP. On FanDuel, the Indians are priced like they are playing in Progressive Field when in reality, they are in hitter friendly U.S Cellular.
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 9.44 DK - 7.69
Galvis is going to be a very popular cheap play at shortstop tonight, rightfully so. As mentioned, Mike Pelfrey has been one of the worst pitchers in the league this far. While this Phillies offense is atrocious, I expect them to nickel and dime Pelfrey until Howard or Franco hits a bomb. Galvis is going to be in the heart of the lineup and will have plenty of RBI and run opportunities. This entire Phillies offense is in play and Galvis provides plenty of upside.
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 13.17 DK - 10.28
Speaking of Franco, here he is. Franco has been a reverse splits hitter since entering the league as evidenced by his .348 wOBA against righties. Most of his power has also came against righties with 13 of his 21 home runs off of them. He will be facing off with Pelfrey, a guy who as mentioned, has been absolutely horrible against both righties and lefties.
Opponent - CLE (Clevinger) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.09 DK - 8.72
While this is the first time any White Sox have been mentioned, they set up well for a contrarian tournament stack. Make sure to check out the stacks article as it will touch on some other stacks for tournaments. Clevinger is a guy we don't have a sample size on, however, he has really struggled in the minors against righties. Todd Frazier on the other hand, has hit righties well with a .331 wOBA and 36.2% hard contact rate in 2015. U.S. Cellular Field is very hitter friendly and could help Frazier get one over the fence tonight.
Consider - Adrian Beltre, Mike Moustakas
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TEX
FD - 15.2 DK - 11.85
Deciding between Trout and Stanton is going to be a very tough decision for me tonight. While I think I am currently leaning with Stanton, Trout is as close as could be. He is swinging the bat well with 15 hits and 3 home runs in his last 10 games. Trout has dominated lefties throughout his career with an astounding .394 wOBA and 38.2% hard contact rate. Derek Holland, however, has been pitiful against righties dating back to 2014 with a .360 wOBA backed up by a 4.82 xFIP. This ballpark is a huge upgrade for Trout as he will move from Angels Stadium to hitter friendly Globe Life Park.
Opponent - TB (Moore) Park - @MIA
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.64
Giancarlo Stanton has been absolutely HORRIBLE lately, however, he has been facing some very good pitchers. Let's hope that keeps his ownership down because he is in a phenomenal spot. Stanton has obliterated lefties over the past 2 seasons with a rediculous .470 wOBA and 51.3% hard contact rate. Those are some of the absolute best numbers you will ever see. While many regard Matt Moore as a good pitcher, he has struggled immensely against righties with a .362 wOBA over the past 3 seasons. While this ballpark is far from ideal, Stanton has had no problem getting it out of Marlins Park in the past. Stanton is a fantastic play in both tournaments and cash games.
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.39 DK - 7.48
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.96 DK - 7.88
While these are the first 2 Dodgers mentioned here, I really like this offense to get to Brandon Finnegan tonight. Finnegan is a below average left hander that has struggled against both righties and lefties as evidenced by his .342 career combined wOBA. On to Hernandez and Thompson, both of these guys has smashed lefties over the previous 2 seasons. Let's take a look at each of their splits. Dating back to 2015, Thompson has held a .407 wOBA and a sustainable 34.7% hard contact rate against lefties. Kike Hernandez on the other other hand, has done more of the same with a .424 wOBA and 35.7% hard contact rate. Both of these guys are great options in all formats as they have a great floor and ceiling.
Consider - Melky Cabrera, Odubel Herrera
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View Comments
Being that the Indians at White Sox is a double header, would you still feel comfortable plugging Indians in knowing that the second game won't have a lineup announced until way after lineups lock?
Stanton's price is so ridiculously low on FD, yet I'm having a hard time selecting him over guys like Brandon Guyer and Odubel Herrera at the same price point. Am I living in some bizarro baseball world or what????
STOUTS-- limit Stanton to gpp. i wouldn't go near him in cash until he starts hitting again.
Mlb tonight broke down what was wrong with Stanton...something to do with his toe tap messing up his timing...until I see him fix his timing issue I'm happy staying away
He's in such a big slump. However, I will use him in a couple of tournament lineups. He has been great against lefties in his career.
His slump isn't bad luck, more his approach at the plate, so I am concerned.
Gotta love his matchup
Is there any workaround regarding using prepaid Visa cards to get the pro subscription??
Why are there number 2's in the optimizer next to the players and team. Players are showing up twice sometimes when running the optimizer.
I'm wondering how the optimizer has been lately? I stopped using it and just been plugging my own pieces together based on the picks and stacks writeups to mixed results. Has anyone been riding with the optimal lineup lately? Has it been cashing in 50s?
It's struggled over the last week or so. Various reasons for this. Some I would attribute to bad luck. But not all. We are working on constantly evaluating our inputs and making sure all relevant pieces are there. We instituted a few minor changes today after running some regression analysis.
Doug, I have struggled some as well but you guys are the reason I will continue to use it. I do believe you guys are constantly tweaking and looking for ways to improve. It is evident in the new write up features you have brought out to add value to subscribers, as well as those that just read your picks. Also, NO ONE interacts with their customers the way you guys do. Good days and bad days, you guys are in the comments section taking the heat. Your client service is 2nd to none.
I agree! ????✊?
The problem is that Stanton got paid and now he doesn't care.
Rick,
Really appreciate this comment. Our only goal is to constantly improve. There's no other way to survive in business/ projections/ whatever. Thankfully data is accessible and malleable to a point where we can diagnose obvious issues (and there were some) while tweaking and testing other pieces to make sure things are as close to correct as humanly possible. For instance, James and I had a 125 minute conversation today just on how we were calculating expected plate appearances for a player. These are things were are always looking at and digesting.
Thanks again for noticing the increased content offerings. We have some really great writers on the team now and are working on ways to get even more content up. One thing that's in the works is a daily podcast. Just trying to put together the schedule for that now.
And finally, Blake just let me know that we are pushing out some development updates tomorrow. Exciting times and comments like yours buoy the sails even more.