Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/21/16 Conference Championships

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This is the same information that Justin wrote up yesterday as it still applies since Game 2 is tonight

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Analysis

At this point, if the Raptors stole a game in the series I think we'd all consider it a moral victory. That's not a knock on them at all, the Cavs are just firing on all cylinders right now. Toronto tried "shaking things up" in the second game, starting Luis Scola over Patrick Patterson. This was akin to shuffling the deck chairs around on the Titanic. They kept the game close-ish to start, but eventually Cleveland ramped up the pressure and scoring a degree the Raps couldn't handle. Some out there alluded to the refs backing Cleveland and pointed to Toronto getting whistled up at a 2:1 personal foul ratio. This misses the forest for the trees. Cleveland's focus is A: getting to the hoop or B: kicking for a three. That first part will induce a lot of fouls. And a team tends to foul more when overmatched. That's clearly the case in this series.

Toronto heading back home brings the line down some to Cleveland -5, but that's still a healthy margin of expected victory for a road team. I'm just not sure Toronto has anything else to throw at this team.

Top Plays
LeBron James - FD 9800 DK 10500
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.41 DK Proj. Pts - 55.54
Kyrie Irving - FD 7300 DK 8400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.54 DK Proj. Pts - 40.66
Even on limited minutes because of the blowout, these two guys were dominant in the second game as well. Lebron put up a triple-double in 34 minutes and didn't have the scoring burden rest on his shoulders. That's a key component for the Cavs' longterm viability in this championship run. If they can defer much of the scoring Kyrie's way and use Lebron's wide-ranging skillset to keep opponents on their toes then the Cavs are a real force. Both are in play again and Lebron's a near must play for me considering how much he does in the box score.

Tristan Thompson - FD 4700 DK 4800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.62 DK Proj. Pts - 24.13
If you want to save a couple of bucks at center from Adams then Thompson's minutes are enough to warrant a play here. He beasted on the boards in the second game grabbing 12 while also chipping in nine points. The Cavs are such a good rebounding team with Thompson at the heart of it.

A note on the Raptors: It's tough to advocate playing any of them at this point. They spread the minutes far and wide in game two to diminishing returns. Lowry looks completely broken. Derozan can't get his midrange and drive game going at all. And the rest of the team just doesn't have any upside UNLESS they can stick with one unit and stay in the game. That latter piece is the key. For a tournament I think you can pick a Toronto lane and run it. But knowing that ahead of time is too variable to trust in safer formats.

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis
For a little while it looked like the Thunder were really going to make a true run at starting this series 2-0. But then Steph Curry happened. He had a third quarter to remember, shooting the lights out and basically putting the game out of reach for OKC in a short period of time. GSW was up nine at halftime and by the end of the third they were up 21. It was a display and a quick reminder of just how quickly the Warriors can step on your neck when the shots are falling.

OKC still put up a fight and I suspect they continue with the pressure as the game moves them back home. But the Warriors are just such a force it's tough to see them not ending up in the finals (something that really only game one put into doubt for me). Anytime you have two of the top 7 best players in the league (Russ and KD) you have a chance and staggering their rotations does leave room for them to exploit the opposing team's second unit. But if Golden State is going to get out in transition and hit the three then it's always an uphill climb.

Top Plays
Stephen Curry - FD 9900 DK 10700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 52.41 DK Proj. Pts - 56.83
Curry didn't have much going in the first half. The Thunder did an excellent job of bottling him up at point of contact and he only got off four three pointers by halftime. They also forced him into some ill-advised passes. But all that went away in the second and he was a superstar again. The blowout is less of a risk on the road for Steph and I suspect he sees major minutes in this one.

Draymond Green - FD 9400 DK 9500
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 46.28 DK Proj. Pts - 48.78
It appeared (many, many, many times) like he was actively trying for a technical foul (or worse) in the second game. Jawing, staring down, chipping, just everything to get the Thunder riled up. But again he was a jack-of-all trades finishing with a 10/8/7/2/1 line in only 32 minutes.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10000 DK 11100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Kevin Durant - FD 9800 DK 10300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.18
Not really letting you in on anything new with these two. They are basically the whole team and if the Thunder are going to keep it close then it's only because they are playing major minutes and dominating the usage rates. Durant is in line for more run on a game-to-game basis but Westbrook has more potential upside because of what his skillset brings to the table. Both are borderline must plays on a slate where you have to get real picky with salary.

Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 6300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
Minutes are the whole story with him. Looked banged up in game two and is dealing with a bunch of little injuries. But he's still out on the court for a vast majority of the game and that's plenty of reason to keep playing him at these prices.

Dion Waiters - FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 17.8 DK Proj. Pts - 18.98
He's a better DFS fit on these short slates when he's coming off the bench mostly because he doesn't get caught in the OKC scoring shuffle. Running with the second unit opens up more shots for Waiters and the minutes are enough for the price tag.

Consider Festus Ezeli merely as a punt play and Andre Iguodala/ Harrison Barnes as cheap SF types.

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