Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our weather report but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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We already covered Jacob deGrom, Jon Niese and Jose Fernandez in our main picks article. If you want breakdowns on those guy head over there.
Early & Afternoon Slate
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @MIN
FD - 32.91 DK - 17.57
Personally I think the early only slate is kinda gross and is extremely thin on pitching, but if that's your sort of thing then I would strongly recommend rolling with J.A. Happ. Happ isn't exactly what you'd call a big league ace, but he doesn't walk many guys and he strikes out enough hitters to be considered a viable fantasy option. The real value here comes with the matchup as the Twins have just been horrendous against left-handed pitching on the season. The Twinkies rank 8th in the league in strikeout % against southpaws (24.5%) and 29th in both OPS and wOBA. Combine that with the fact that Happ will be up against a guy making his first big league start and you've got yourself one of the best pitching options on the early slate that will probably get overlooked.
Opponent - DET (Fulmer) Park - @DET
FD - 35.17 DK - 19.49
Another southpaw option that is pitching in the afternoon that is slightly more expensive than Happ is Drew Smyly, who is up against the Tigers @ Comerica Park today. The Tigers have been pretty pathetic versus left-handed pitching this season, ranking 27th in wOBA, OPS, and wRC+ against that particular split. In addition, the Tigers strikeout 21.6% of the time against lefties, which is slightly worse than league average. While the K% isn't amazing, the fact that Smyly has a K/9 of 10.51 this season suggests that he's got plenty of strikeout punch to rack up some points. He got roughed up a bit versus Seattle two games ago, but outside of that Smyly has put up solid numbers in all of his other starts. Considering he's facing off against a guy who's got an ERA that is quickly approaching 7, Smyly should be in line for a win today which gives him plenty of upside.
Opponent - NYY (Tanaka) Park - @OAK
FD - 31.6 DK - 16.14
He's the top guy on our projections from a PPD standpoint so I figured he at least deserved a mention here. Manaea hasn't exactly been great this season from a numbers perspective, but a large amount of that can be traced to his 2.2 inning debacle against the Red Sox where he gave up 8 runs, including 2 home runs. The Yankees are far from being as potent of an offense as their Boston rivals, particularly against left-handed pitching where they rank 26th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. The Yankees don't exactly have a great K% either (20%), but it's not bad enough to completely scare me away either. My biggest hesitation here is the pitching matchup because Tanaka is a pretty tough pitcher despite the fact that he's only won 1 game in 8 starts. All of that being said, if you're looking for a super cheap option so that you can load up on offense, Manaea is your guy.
Late Slate
Opponent - SD (Vargas) Park - @SD
FD - 32.12 DK - 16.61
I wouldn't go here for my 50/50's or double-ups, but Alex Wood does make an interesting tournament play if you're looking at the late slate. For starters (small MLB pun), he's throwing at Petco tonight which is widely known as one of the better pitcher's parks in the major leagues. That also means he's facing the Padres, who have been about league average when it comes to facing lefties, ranking 18th in OPS and 17th in wOBA. The real upside value here comes from the Padres K% against southpaws, which is the 5th highest in the big leagues at 25.2%. Wood has actually been a pretty effective pitcher this season despite the fact that he's only won 1 of his 8 starts this season. He's got a K/9 rate of 8.34 (which isn't amazing, but it definitely isn't bad), and an xFIP of 3.65 (which is pretty good considering his ERA is 4.17). Wood faced the Padres back on April 29th and had 9 K's over 7 IP while only allowing 1 run, so I'm looking for him to have a similar performance tonight.
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View Comments
Thoughts on Vargas as pitcher?
I'm not a huge fan. He struggles with control and is very susceptible to the long ball. But the Dodgers offense is pretty bad this year so he could be a sneaky good tournament play.
Second day in a row where they pick against the Yankees. I know they're offense is very inconsistent, especially against left handed pitching, but they did score 5 on Gray and he was also picked in this article. Manaea is still a raw prospect who needs a couple of years to adjust.
Great call, but no one will see it. I had Tanaka BTW.