New York Mets starting pitcher Steven Matz throws to the plate during the first inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday, May 9, 2016, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our weather report but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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We already covered Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola and Scott Kazmir in our main picks article. If you want breakdowns on those guy head over there.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @NYM
FD - 37.67 DK - 20.23
Probably could have been included with the top group of guys. Matz is a huge favorite going into this matchup with Milwaukee. The line started at Mets -190 and has slowly climbed to -228 over the course of the morning. It's dropped the Brewers' expected total down to under three runs. I don't expect to see much more movement in this direction, but signs are pointing to a low-scoring affair. It makes sense. The Brew Crew are a middle of the pack squad against lefty pitching and Matz is putting together a solid season. He has an excellent 2.85 xFIP while striking out more than a batter an inning. He's also cut down an already low career walk rate. Solid pricing all around and it's a pretty close call between Matz and Cole today.
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @OAK
FD - 34.49 DK - 17.88
Wherefore art thou Sonny Gray? My man is struggling this year and it's laid waste to his DraftKings' price. I'm not considering him even in the slightest on FanDuel, but the DK salary is getting to the breaking point. Right? $6800 puts him in the bottom third of SPs (20 out of 30) and has me intrigued from a tournament perspective. His biggest issue this season is an elevated walk rate at 4.03 per nine compared to a career 2.91 number. But he's got a couple of things working for him here. The ballpark helps with O.co Coliseum depressing power all around. And the Yankees don't have a ton of pop to begin with, especially when you get to the second half of their lineup. He's a slight favorite going in (-120) and it's worth noting the 4.29 xFIP is well below the 5.84 ERA. Worth a flyer on DK for sure.
Opponent - SF (Peavy) Park - @SF
FD - 38.14 DK - 20.32
Be tough to do a whole picks article and a pitcher breakdown and not talk about Jake at all. So let's get into why it took us so long. There are two issues with the guy today. The first is price. With Cole, Matz and even Nola so reasonably priced we simply don't need to spend all the way up to Arrieta. Sure, the raw points expectation is there, but you pay such a premium on it that I don't see the point. The Giants strike out at the lowest rate in the league against righties (15.9%) and rank in the top half of team wOBA. I just don't see spending all the way up for Arrieta on a day with tons of pitching value.
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View Comments
I heard Matz may be on a pitch count. Is it true and does it change your projections?
I read this. I had him pegged for 100 pitches or in that area. Considered giving him a 2% downgrade though it's tricky because it's uncertain.
Thoughts on Roark? He got beat up by the fish last time out, but any chance he re-gains form? hes been boom or bust, but paired with Cole on DK, it leave room to really spend up on Bats
I'm looking at this line up if i decide to risk it on Roark...
Cole, Roark, Posey, Rizzo, Zobrist, Machado, Lindor, Bryant, Polanco, McCutchen
Believe Roark got beat up 2 times by the fish this season.
With so many reasonably priced good options, I can't roster Matz given the pitch-count issue.
Anyone feeling Duffey tonight?