-Austyn Varney @VarneyDFS
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Welcome back to a TGIF edition of daily fantasy baseball picks. All 15 games are scheduled for the evening slate giving us plenty of time to roam the world wide web in search of tonight's fantasy stars. We thank you for stopping by to get our featured picks reflective of our projection system and lineup optimizer. Once you are done reading the article be sure to check back for our secondary articles(Stacks, Pitchers, News and Weather Report) published throughout the day. Good luck tonight!
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Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @PHI
FD - 34.81 DK - 18.85
The Phillies have been the surprise team of the year to this point sitting seven games over .500 and Nola has played a big part as the team has won in five of his eight starts. He has only picked up three wins but has an impressive 2.89 ERA supported by an even better 2.39 xFIP. In his second season in the big leagues he has seen an increase from 7.88 to 9.85 K/9 while reducing his walk rate from 2.20 to 1.53 BB/9. He has also produced more ground balls(56% GB rate) while limiting the power(9.1% HR/FB rate) due to a low 20% hard bit ball rate. Bottom line, get him in your lineup on Friday night. He is safe in all formats on FanDuel at $9K but should only be considered as a GPP play on DraftKings as he is a bit over priced.
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @PIT
FD - 38.57 DK - 20.82
While Aaron Nola is over priced on DraftKings, Gerrit Cole is a must play under $9K. He has been pitching very well lately with wins in two straight and four of his last five games. In the four wins he has limited opponents to two runs or less in each game with a total of 24 strikeouts and just four walks. When he limits the free passes he can have a lot of success. Good news for Cole. While the Rockies rank in the Top 10 in wOBA vs. RH pitching(inflated as half their games played in Coors), they rank in the bottom with a 7.9% team walk rate. He is one of the top pitchers on the slate and gets to face the Rockies in a terrific pitchers park.
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @SD
FD - 33.73 DK - 18.24
His salary is trending in opposite directions between the two sites. After a win vs. the Cardinals in his last start, his salary has jumped $2k on DraftKings making him a GPP only play. Looking at FanDuel his salary has dropped close to a grand in the last month making him playable in any format due to the matchup on Friday night. The projection system has Kazmir as one of the top options on the night vs. the Padres in Petco Park. San Diego ranks 25th in runs scored overall and 19th in team wOBA vs. LH pitching while striking out over 25% of time. If you are looking to stack hitters on FanDuel, Kazmir will provide the salary relief needed with some upside with a 8.41 K/9 rate.
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @MIN
FD - 8.95 DK - 6.91
It looks like a night where I will be punting the catcher position and loading up on the bats in other spots. Martin has struggled mightily to start the season with an extremely high 34% K rate and .170 batting average. There are signs he may be coming out of it as he has hits in four of his last five games with just four strikeouts. The entire Jays team has been struggling and as they start to heat up Martin should get more opportunities to drive in runs. His best value is on FanDuel at near minimum pricing.
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.22
Getting a little closer to the top but still in the mid tier on both sites is a terrific value in Evan Gattis. He is red hot right now with hits in five of his last six games including a home run in two of his last three. He gets an excellent matchup on Friday vs. Colby Lewis who's numbers on the season are a bit deceiving. He has pitched to a 3.12 ERA but his 4.44 xFIP and extremely high 92% LOB rate suggest he is due for some big regression real soon. Lewis also lacks the K upside(6.5 K/9) which should cancel out Gattis's biggest weakness. His biggest strength? His power and Lewis has given up a home run in seven of his eight starts this year. Note that he qualifies as a Catcher on FanDuel but an outfielder on DraftKings.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.63 DK - 9.48
The Mets will be happy to see the Nationals leave New York after being limited to just four runs in the three game series. They faced some very tough pitching in Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg. That won't be the case tonight as the Mets will square off against the gas can that is Wily Peralta. He has been torched lately giving up five or more earned runs in two of his last three starts with three home runs. He isn't going to scare any hitters with his sub 6 K/9 rate and gets himself into a ton of trouble with a walk rate of 3.98 BB/9. Duda is coming off two monster seasons with 27+ home runs and already has seven early in 2016.
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @PIT
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.55
I honestly can't stand looking at those dreads but can't argue with the value he brings in fantasy. He is a safe mid range option on both sites best suited for cash games as he lacks power upside. He hits in a prime position(leadoff) for the Pirates and gets plenty of run scoring opportunities hitting in front of Mccutchen, Polanco and Kang. He won't cost you very much and comes into this game with seven hits in his last four games.
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.89 DK - 9.98
It is very close between Cano and Altuve for the top 2B play tonight. I am leaning Cano as he gets a matchup in Great American Ballpark which is one of the best hitters parks in the majors but you can't go wrong with either in great matchups. Cano will face Dan Straily who has a nice 3.02 ERA but the 4.77 xFIP and 85% LOB rate suggest a decline is right around the corner. Cano has been having a wonderful start to the year hitting over .300 with 12 home runs and a 159 wRC+(highest of his career). The weather looks to be a concern so be sure to check out our daily weather update article.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.45 DK - 8.82
We continue to pick on Wily Peralta which should be a little foreshadowing to my stacks article coming out later today. I mentioned with Duda that Peralta has lacked control which has gotten him into trouble giving up five or more earned runs in four of his eight starts this season including seven long balls. Walker's average is down a bit from his career number but it doesn't scare me away as he is hitting with a low .255 BABIP which is 50 points lower than his career average. He has hit double digit home runs in every full season he has played in the majors and has already hit that milestone with 10 long balls so far in 2016 and we are only in mid May.
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.47
Machado is the top shortstop and possibly the top overall hitting option on Friday night(Hot take? You decide). He has contributed in almost all categories with a .318 average, 11 home runs, 25 RBI, 30 runs scored and an elite 168 wRC+. The only thing lacking from his game is the speed as he hasn't stolen a bag yet in 2016 after recording 20 last year. No biggy. We will take the power and run production over speed any day. He will face Hector Santiago who is another case of a pitcher with decent numbers who is due for regression. His 4.63 xFIP and 78% LOB rate suggest he isn't pitching as well as you might think. He is a fly ball pitcher who is giving up over a 30% hard hit ball rate while Machado is has a 36% hard hit ball rate. That is recipe for disaster....for Santiago and those who fade Machado.
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.83
This pick has more to do with the matchup than anything else. The Athletics will be at home to the Yankees and rapidly declining C.C. Sabathia who has seen his K rate drop significantly and his walk rate increase over the past three seasons. He hasn't been giving up the home runs we have been used but that isn't a part of Semiens game. Sabathia's biggest issue has been the control as he is walking over four batters per nine innings which lines up nice with Semiens patient approach(11.5% walk rate). He is a safe play for cash games but lacks upside for GPP's hitting out of the seven hole.
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.51
One thing I have been starting to watch closely is hitters travelling from negative home parks to positive road parks. Kyle Seager fits this mold perfectly as he is currently hitting just .222 at Safeco Field and .288 on the road and will get a series matchup at Great American Ballpark this weekend. It starts on Friday as the Mariners will face Dan Straily who has struggled with control(4.35 BB/9) and has given up four home runs in six starts. As I mentioned with Cano weather could be a concern so be sure to stay updated before lineup lock.
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.53 DK - 8.25
My favorite mid range value play at any position tonight. Danny Valencia, now with the Athletics, is enjoying a terrific start to the season with a .427 wOBA and amazing 180 wRC+. While he is due for regression it would be wise to roll with Valencia during this hot streak, especially facing lefty C.C. Sabathia who I mentioned earlier as a great pitcher to target against. Valencia has shown elite splits vs. left handed pitching early this season(.407 avg) and for his career(.325 avg). He is a great play on his own hitting in the cleanup spot for the A's or as a part of a team stack.
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @SD
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.47
I recommended targeting Christian Friedrich in his last start and talked about his lack of control. Well, the Brewers absolutely crapped the bed and couldn't take advantage of six free passes. It won't keep me away from targeting Friedrich once again as the Dodgers rank 8th in team ISO(.164) and 12th in walk rate(9.0%) vs. left handed pitching. Turner is hitting a disappointing .233 on the season but is operating with a low .269 BABIP(49 points lower than his career average) suggesting a positive regression coming his way. His best value is on FanDuel at a mid $2K price tag.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.57 DK - 9.8
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.7
Yep, you guessed it. More Mets to kick off the outfielder picks tonight. I gravitate towards the left handed hitters as they are both cheaper and easier to fit in a lineup than Cespedes. If you are playing cash games I would recommend Conforto over the Granderson as he has been much more consistent with a .373 wOBA and 137 wRC+. Both have shown power upside this year(Granderson-7 HR and Conforto-6 HR) and have positive splits vs. right handed pitching for their careers. The projection system absolutely loves picking on Wily Peralta today so I would recommend getting on board in the Big Apple.
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.90 DK - 9.73
In an attempt to shake things up, interim manager DeMarlo Hale placed Jose Bautista in the leadoff spot(I am sure it was still John Gibbons decision.Remember the Tulo in the leadoff spot trick last fall?) on Thursday night. He picked up a hit and a walk in the game but it will take more than that to payoff his salary. The Jays picked up a huge win in extra innings which ended their five game losing streak an should provide a spark for the entire team. It has been a rough start to the year but Joey Bats is still one of the most feared power hitters in the big leagues with the 5th most home runs(137) in the big leagues since the start of the 2012 season. While the average is nothing to write home about, he has been extremely patient with a 19.2% walk rate which could be huge if he hits leadoff again on Friday night vs. Tyler Duffey.
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @PIT
FD - 11.43 DK - 9.84
Polanco continued his streak last night going 2 for 5 with a triple and a home run in a 8-2 route of the Braves. He now has hits in four straight and six of his last seven games pushing his average clear of the .300 mark. He has been very patient(14.8% BB rate) hitting close to the top of the Pirates lineup which has resulted in an elite .405 OBP and 28 runs scored. He also provides plus speed on the bases and has picked up five steals but needs to improve as he has been caught three times. He will face Chad Bettis tonight who is giving up a 32% hard hit ball rate and 13% HR/FB ratio. He has also given up three or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. Find room for the hot hitting Pirates who got a boost as Starling Marte returned to the lineup on Thursday.
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View Comments
Cole at 8.7 on DK. Any early guesses on ownership %? I am going in at 45%. Sure makes lineup construction easier today as it is gas cans galore on today's slate. May be a mini-stacks kind of day.
I suspect it is much higher. Maybe at least 65%. He's highest ML SP with lowest opponent expected total. Too cheap to ignore.
No way Cole is 45% owned in a 15 game slate, more like 25-28%. I am of the opinion that emphasis on value, points, potential stats are far more important than worrying about how many other people will own a particular player. Especially when everyone else is thinking the same thing and are reluctant to roster a guy BECAUSE they think he will be highly owned, result, low owned!! Over thinking. 195-215 points is my number one concern. I spend 95% of my time trying to compose a lineup of player that will get me (with some luck) close to 200 FPP. Ownership doesn't even come into the equation.
P.S. There's usually a reason why a player will be low owned, they suck!!
On FD you're probably right with 25-28% but on DK in cash he will be at least 45%
I'd take the over by a mile on that ownership percentage.
72% on DK tonight.
50-85% in all my cash games pretty much what I was feeling
THANK YOU for fixing the audio so it doesn't auto-play on the site. You guys are GREAT!
Of course. It was an accident to have it play like that to begin with.
Any advice on a good lineup for today? New to FD MLB
The Dark Knight rises.....from his locker with soap and towel heading for the spray.
Manny,
I like them for Cash games for sure. Started out slow, but now heating up. I play for tickets too, like on DK where they offer 25 or 50 tickets. For GPP, they will get you close, but not a winner yet, just able to cash money. I also won a PGA Tourney based on info/recommendations from this site. That pays for it for a year for me. NASCAR has also been great, I win every week, just haven't hit the "big one" yet. Keeps me in the game with a bank roll.
Anybody know how good there optimized lineups are on this site was thinking about subscribing
Manny,
I like them for Cash games for sure. Started out slow, but now heating up. I play for tickets too, like on DK where they offer 25 or 50 tickets. For GPP, they will get you close, but not a winner yet, just able to cash money. I also won a PGA Tourney based on info/recommendations from this site. That pays for it for a year for me. NASCAR has also been great, I win every week, just haven’t hit the “big one” yet. Keeps me in the game with a bank roll.
When is the the stacks going to be up for today's games?
Thoughts on Andriese on FD?
I like andriese a lot good pickup I think
Any thoughts on David wright and Khris Davis
Like both Davis and Wright as far as Andriese don't think he offers much with k upside and there should be plenty of value bats to pay up for pitching
Anthony in cash his range will be in the 50-80% owned with some trying to be contrarian. He'll also be very highly owned in gpps and think I'm going to pivot to Martinez there